Nanali He

[Shayan Rastgou @ShayanRastgou]

Most people don't realize what just happened to the entire AI trade.

Jensen Huang just announced that Artificial General Intelligence has officially arrived.

When the CEO of a $5.58 trillion company makes that declaration, the market-wide capital flows shift immediately.

Here is the financial and market structure breakdown of what happens next:

1. The Revenue Runway
Nvidia guided Q3 revenue to $108 billion (+12.3% quarter-over-quarter) after posting $96.2 billion in Q2. That puts their annualized run-rate at $432 billion, and that number assumes zero China data center revenue. At a $5.58 trillion market cap, $NVDA trades at roughly 12.9x forward sales.

2. The Capex Acceleration
Hyperscaler 2026 capital expenditure guidance revisions increased by another 22% through the latest earnings calls. Capex growth across major cloud providers is expanding faster than chip delivery guidance.

3. The Downstream Rotation
Friday's tape revealed where institutional capital is actually positioning for this next phase. Nvidia reached $234.76, sitting 98 cents below its $235.74 all-time high, but volume contracted to 128.7 million shares compared to 298.9 million on August 27. Instead of chasing the bellwether at resistance, liquidity rotated downstream into the physical stack: memory surged 6.1%, networking gained 7.1%, optical hardware rose 4.7%, and power infrastructure jumped 4.4%.

4. The Physical Bottleneck
Declaring that AGI is here means compute demand has outgrown pure silicon supply. The constraint shifts from chip design to utility power interconnection, thermal cooling capacity, and high-bandwidth memory.

If compute requirements scale at this rate, which infrastructure layer hits a supply deficit first: power generation or high-bandwidth memory?

[vincent @SPCX100T]

SpaceX $SPCX is applying its rocket manufacturing playbook to break the single biggest bottleneck in the entire gas turbine industry.

Hot section blades and vanes in large industrial gas turbines must operate at temperatures far above the melting point of the alloys themselves (roughly 1,650–1,980 °C). That requires precision casting of single crystal (SX) or directionally solidified (DS) nickel-based superalloys. Only about three foundries in the world (PCC, Howmet and a couple of others) can reliably produce these parts at scale, and their order books are already full through 2030. This has become one of the most severe constraints on powering the AI data-center build-out.

SpaceX’s advantages are:

• It already performs similar high-temperature superalloy casting for Raptor turbopumps (and spent years solving blade-cracking problems).

• It is now building its own blades-and-vanes foundry in Bastrop, Texas, so it can apply that capability directly to industrial gas turbines.

• Elon says in house casting can bring complete turbines online up to 18 months sooner—a genuine game-changer given current lead times.

A more precise way to describe it is this:
SpaceX is not immediately reinventing the gas turbine. It is injecting aerospace-style rapid iteration, vertical integration and extreme manufacturing discipline into a conservative industry that has long been dominated by a handful of suppliers and plagued by multi-year deliveries. If they succeed, the usual outcomes follow: more capacity, shorter lead times, lower cost, and pressure on the incumbent foundries and OEMs to move faster.

This is classic SpaceX: first solve its own urgent needs ( SpaceXAI data centers + Starship ) and, in the process, raise the ceiling of the entire supply chain. In the near term the work is mostly for internal use; over the longer term there is a real chance the benefits spill over to the broader energy industry.

[Annie 所长 @web3annie]

传奇交易员 Bill Ackman 刚发了股东信，披露了15个持仓，新加仓了6个，看看他的投资眼光 👇

目前持仓：
1. 优步 $UBER
业绩强劲（今年EPS增速约35%），估值近历史低位（约19x）。市场过度担忧自动驾驶影响、与 $GOOGL 旗下 Waymo 的竞争。

2. 布鲁克菲尔德 $BN
公司经营状况扎实、健康。预计今年EPS能增长10%-15%，业绩增长比较稳定可靠。市场过度担心私募信贷业务风险大、都直接从抖音放心借了，现在股价对应的市盈率大概只有14倍，属于偏低水平。

3. 微软 $MSFT
从成本价看YTD下跌，估值近十年低位。担忧M365被AI颠覆、Azure增长及资本开支。他看好M365嵌入度 + Copilot、Azure在算力紧缺中的定位，以及更开放多模型生态，认为可维持高双位数历史EPS增长。

4. Meta $META
广告业务因AI推荐/定向加速（增速为近年最快），是AI明确受益者。资本开支高压制股价，但算力也可对外变现。预期未来数年EPS 20%+，约18x估值有吸引力。

5. 汉堡王 $QSR
重回轻资本模式 + 回购。预期高个位数营业利润增长 + 杠杆与回购可支持中双位数总回报，估值约17x仍折价。

6. 亚马逊 $AMZN
AWS因AI加速至30%+增长，零售份额继续提升。资本开支担忧被夸大，长期可20%+ EPS复合。

7. 霍华德休斯控股 $HHH
完成Vantage收购，引入Arch Capital前高管团队，转型保险主导的控股公司。目标保险业务长期ROE 20%+，将房地产过剩现金流投入保险以加速价值增长。

8. 9. 房利美、房地美 $FNMA $FMCC
这两家公司的股价今年跌了不少，40%，原因是市场对它们私有化的预期变弱了。虽然股价跌了，公司实际价值还在涨。阿克曼认为，私有化最终还是会发生的。

新增持仓：
10. 11. 维萨、万事达 $V $MA
全球支付网络收费站，资本轻、通胀受益、网络效应强，增值服务贡献增长。

12. 奈飞 $NFLX
此前短暂持有过，现在高FCF转化（约90%）、广告快速扩张、回购为主。估值相对增长有折扣。

13. 标普全球 $SPGI
长期欣赏的优质数据评级业务，估值19倍左右，过去5年里的最低估值水平。

14. 洲际交易所 $ICE
交易所 + 金融数据/基础设施，长期EPS稳健增长，倍数压缩至低位。

15. 爱尔康 $ALC
眼科相关优质增长业务。

看得出阿克曼非常看重 EPS 增速！没错，只要有增长，就有未来！

[Nanali He @he_nanali]

@RF1ux @ShanghaoJin @bboczeng haha the same here。我也是抄作业，过山车行情。

[Nanali He @he_nanali]

@BabybusFL MU就是黄金，世纪大顶；SNDK就是白银，山寨归零。

[Paradis @ParadisLabs]

This Leopold / Situational Awareness story is crazy.

> Go from $1.5B to $20B in under two years.
> Over 1,000% since launch, 270% ytd to May alone.
> Jane Street which almost never allocates to external managers becomes an investor.
> $24B near the highs, levered as much as 4x. Up 439% for H1'26.
> July 2026: AI names go down as much as 50%.
> Compounded with up to 4x margin...
> Leopold sends letter to LPs for additional capital reported by FT yesterday, says that this is a buying opp.
> Today: CNBC reports Situational Awareness has exited all public equity positions.
> One buyer takes everything, both L/S books, in one enormous block.
> Jane Street?? Who buys a whole levered spread book in one go? Isn't that is literally Jane Street's business?
> As an LP, Jane Street had the inside view of exactly his book. Which would make this even more ironic...
> If it was JS, the arc completes: Leopold's rarest backer would be the buyer of his whole book lol.
> What's left of Leopold? Whatever's left in the private book after selling Anthropic stake and the capital raise, if any.

[Daniel Koss @daniel_koss]

I can not believe how bad all the X takes about Leopold are?!

1. He's a billionaire.

2. After getting liquidated, he's still up more than 99% of other funds.

3. His investors, obviously, are very happy with him.

4. He could start a new, maybe bigger, fund in no time.

5. It seems so incredibly obvious there was massive manipulation behind the scenes to push him over the edge via misinformation, hidden as an "opinion".

6. He very accurately and eloquently explained what would happen and nailed most of what happened years in advance.

There's no world in which he's an idiot, retard or looser.

What is X smoking?

You all seem like such haters sometimes. Why does it make you so happy he's having a shit time rn? I love you all, but why does seeing others fail excite people so much more than winning together? Also the winner here is prolly one of the WORST players in this game...

Only @ParadisLabs nailed what is happening. Well done. Factual and accurate interpretation imho! 👌🏻

[Nanali He @he_nanali]

@111_114390 是的，我研究过SOXX和储存。哪怕买在之前周期的最高点经历了腰斩，最后100%回本+创新高，这个过程快的1年，慢的2年。如果long only在5年以上，一定会碰到下一次周期然后翻倍。

[麦田 Rye 🇺🇦 @maitian99]

我还漏说了一点：“补库存”。美国战略库存spr目前大概是40年最低水平，按照法律规定，前段时间释放到市场的原油，需要企业买回来还给政府。这个补spr库存的需求是强制性的，大概秋天就会启动。这些对原油价格会有一定的支撑。。。总之，我认为今年剩下的日子，wti原油大概率不会低于80元区间。供你参考

[CrypBankz📈⛓️ @CryptoBankz_65]

Explain to me like I am 5 why I should sell my $NBIS at $200+ or $300+ when I can sell it at $1,000+ over the next couple of years

[Nanali He @he_nanali]

@Kay2289123 NBIS一直都波动性超级大，每次主升浪之前都有40%以上回调。拿着不动就行，大回调加仓。长期10倍股。

[Qasem Al-Ali @AlaliQasem]

Global Crude Inventories Forecast by End of August 2026

The MoU collapsed. Iranian missiles hit Kuwait 48 hours ago. Two US service members killed in Jordan. One missing.
Here’s what markets aren’t pricing: we have exactly 42 days until end of August. Global crude inventories are reaching levels that will redefine “critical.”
Let me show you the math.

[Nanali He @he_nanali]

@111_114390 100万存款国内银行只有1%利息，美金存款还跑不赢贬值和通货膨胀。看好漂亮国就买美股，觉得漂亮国药丸就买黄金，10年铁定大幅跑赢存款。

[Nanali He @he_nanali]

@hanking66 已经无脑下跌了，感觉全是机器人交易和杀杠杆，躺平了，什么时候开始涨再开APP
业绩超预期地超预期，股价不涨
业绩超预期，跌10%
业绩符合预期，跌20%
业绩不及预期，腰斩

[Astra @AstraInsights]

The recent narrative has been all about the semiconductor rally and the MAG-7 pullback.

But when you zoom out, a different picture emerges.

Semiconductors $SOX have only recently begun outperforming the MAG-7 $MAGS since ChatGPT launched in November 2022.

This really puts things into perspective:

[Nanali He @he_nanali]

@bennybigbull @steve2bacon 🤣🤣🤣

[Nanali He @he_nanali]

@DeliMeatMD @Rory_Johnston 🤣🤣🤣🤣

[Le Shrub🌳 @agnostoxxx]

We are back to living the Meme 🥹💪🌳

[Nanali He @he_nanali]

@hanking66 只要没杠杆，删掉APP，年底再看，估计有惊喜。

[Nanali He @he_nanali]

@_FORAB 小米 = 1倍做空海力士； 恒科 = 2倍做空字节跳动； 茅台 = 3倍做多居民可支配收入； 阿里 = 4倍做空寒武纪； 腾讯 = 5倍做空英伟达。