heider

[heider @heider891]

1/4

$4k to $400k Challenge (Update)

Week 60 (skipped updates for Weeks 58 and 59)
Initial: $4000
Current: $277694
% PnL: +6662% (overall), +42% (YTD), -16% (from recent ATH), +19% (WoW)

Overall breakdown:

Total Portfolio Value (7-day change; from LightHouse (top)):

% YTD Performance (vs BTC, ETH, SOL, HYPE):

Skipped the update the past 2 weeks mainly because the market was somewhat muted except maybe the $ASTER launched last week. It doesn't help that my port has also been ranging for almost a year. Lol. Oh well, we take what we get.

A quick summary of positions changes or trades made the past 2 weeks:
1. Sold my FDF positions and $CARDS as I thought that there were better RR plays. Unfortunately, I bought $PUMP which went downhill afterwards (it has recovered abit though).
2. Traded $ASTER from $0.40 to $2 but only with small size since I didn't want to use all my stables. Made a few shekels but nothing life changing.
3. Sold $PUMP spot to farm $ASTER airdrop by longing $ASTER on Aster. But closed two days later when I realised I wasn't able to close my position fully; something to do with position size limit on closing. I had to close it in small chunks instead. I think I would have been liquidated if I didn't notice this given the price action of $ASTER in the subsequent days. Closed my longs on Aster and sold my $ASTER spot. Went long $ASTER on HL instead. Corgil and Tradersz appeared on my timeline and seem to nail the Aster trade (that Corgil fella nailed Aster, Apex and quite a few more that I don't recall. Quite underrated) and remained bullish despite the pullback from ATH. Then, Jez and Hansolar went short $ASTER and I started to have doubts. Unfortunately, price broke the bull-flag (not sure if this is the correct term) to the downside and I had to endure a few days of negative uPnL. Barely above water on it right now.
4. Closed my $MNT long around $1.70+. Shame.
5. Still holding onto my underwater $PUMP long as I don't think it will hit new lows unless we enter a bear market or some catastrophe happens. So, as long as my liquidation price is above that, we are Gucci. I added to my $PUMP long when it touched the previous ATH ($0.007) as it pullback from the recent ATH ($0.0088) using some of my spare stables. Probably shouldn't have done so in hindsight as you lose optionality to take other trades especially those not listed on perps.
6. Traded in and out of $STBL. Didn't make much (about +70% PnL) and only with small size. Didn't have the conviction to hold it as I don't really believe in the thesis.
7. Bought $APEX at $2 due to Binance and Bybit entering the perp dex wars narrative. Just sold a few minutes ago (at a loss). I'm not as convicted in this compared to $ASTER. May change my mind though.
8. Bought abit of $KLED after selling $APEX. Will likely DCA over the coming days.
9. Offramped $2500 at the end of the month as usual.

Aside from that, my overall positioning remains long bias to the detriment of my portfolio (at least for the past 2 weeks). Prior to the pump the past 24-48 hours, the consensus seems to be that the next move is to the downside, as outlined by influential folks like Ansem, Contra and Cav. However, the weird thing is that, most of the macro folks that I follow/listened to (capitalflows, fejau, cointradernik etc) are at worst neutral about macro (in terms of affecting stock market) and don't see a reason to be bearish (it is possible that I'm interpreting their views incorrectly). On the other hand, chartists or TA (not sure if this is the correct description) like Cav, Contra and Ansem are bearish based on mainly technicals. So, while I had a slightly bullish outlook in Q4, I need to remain open to the idea of BTC revisiting $90k. The good thing is that the bearish folks alluded to earlier also outlined their invalidation (i.e. flip bullish if BTC closed > $117k on the daily etc) which we have broken through and so, bulls are in control for now.

What I'm doing, looking forward to or things on my watchlist:
1. Believe eco/ICM plays. Currently sidelined on it but have been on my watchlist for awhile. Maybe I should just topblast since it is still somewhat non-consensus at least on CT.
2. ASTER and PUMP making new highs. Fingers crossed
3. Open a TryFomo account and use that for trenching. TBD
4. I don't think I'll be playing BSC trenches.

[heider @heider891]

1/4

$4k to $400k Challenge (Update)

Week 57
Initial: $4000
Current: $300857
% PnL: +7148% (overall), +52% (YTD), -10.3% (from recent ATH), +42% (WoW)

Overall breakdown:

Total Portfolio Value (7-day change; from LightHouse (top)):

% YTD Performance (vs BTC, ETH, SOL, HYPE):

$ Value for Different Categories (since inception):

Didn't do much the past week. Glad that $HYPE has been carrying my port. While I don't explicitly copytrade others, I do like to seek some form of confluence/alignment in terms of positioning/ideas. So my near-term market outlook is aligned to the average of the ones below:

1. Cav: Believes that market will enter a euphoric stage over the next 2-3 weeks with SOLETH outperforming before dump to $90k per BTC
2. Hansolar: Seems to be bullish based on his public pool (https://t.co/I1hwXwcmol)
3. Cooker: He is all long bias right now on HL
4. CL: Like cooker, he is long rn albeit he has closed his BTC and HYPE longs. Only PUMP long is left opened
5. Josh Mandel: Longed BTC from $107k
6. Mel Mattison: The macro fella that was glazing himself recently. He has been nailing some moves recently and you have to give him some credit for that. He is abit bearish short-term but does see risky assets like BTC to trade higher towards EOY
7. Ansem & Contra: Both bearish atm. However, contra posted the BTC chart yesterday with BTC making a lower high at $117k before dumping to $90-100k which is somewhat similar to Cav's view.

Decide to buy a long-term $PUMP spot position. As mentioned in one of my latest tweets, I'm slowly getting around the idea of these creator coins or streaming coins. Decent chance that it might work. Also, from the recent Delphi podcast, seems like there might be a PUMP dat coming up? Could be a good catalyst that I feel the market has not yet priced in. Also, this streaming thing is an easy buy-in for liquid funds instead of memecoin launchpad. Seeing Robinhood launching the social trading feature, i think PUMP somewhat fits into that meta as well (social: streaming & trading: streamer/creator coins).

Sold my $CARDS mainly because I don't want to roundtrip my gains like I did for FDF. The metrics (making about $100k per day) and chart (on 4H and higher timeframe) still look good. I will probably DCA a smol moonbag over the week.

[heider @heider891]

From tim cook to tim apple and now, tim burton

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

APPLE SEEKS U.S. APPROVAL TO SOURCE MEMORY CHIPS FROM CHINA’S CXMT: FT

Apple is seeking U.S. government clearance to purchase memory chips from Chinese DRAM maker CXMT, according to the Financial Times.

The move aims to ease supply shortages and rising memory chip costs driven by AI demand.

CXMT is on the Pentagon’s Chinese Military Company blacklist, making the proposal politically sensitive despite no current legal ban on purchases.
If approved, the deal could diversify Apple’s memory supply chain and reduce dependence on Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix. (https://t.co/Vx4hGylMK9⁠)

[heider @heider891]

@burstingbagel From TA perspective, it looks good (broke 200ma on daily). Usually, this means bullish trend. Let's see.

I'm just abit skeptical on this inference thing though.

[heider @heider891]

@Shaughnessy119 But those rev for zhipu is prior to glm5.2 release right?

[heider @heider891]

@au_xbt Shame that stablestocks still require to trade by lots. Thought it would be tokenised

[heider @heider891]

What is somewhat underrated about crypto (perps) listing these is that it allows permanent underclass folks like me to sidestep purchasing these tickers by lots on brokerages like IBKR (min purchase of 100 lots which is about $25k). Only bummer is (elevated) funding

[Hyperliquid News @HyperliquidNews]

🆕 New HIP-3 ticker 🆕

The $ZHIPU (@Zai_org) ticker has been purchased for 500 HYPE ($34,375) by @tradexyz

[heider @heider891]

@Evan_ss6 Closest proxy is prob $bfly

[heider @heider891]

First, US admin unilaterally started tariff war with others. Has it worked? 🤷‍♂️ If not for this, crypto bros won't suffer from 10/10 and its aftermath.

Next, they unilaterally (maybe with Israel) started a conflict/war with Iran resulting in closure of SOH. Has it worked? 🤷‍♂️ Tbd

Now, they unilaterally ban frontier AI model use.

Who suffers? Why are they unilaterally deciding what's good and what's bad?

So much about trying to paint countries like China as the bad guys but US is certainly acting like one. You also have ppl like Sacks sucking up to Trump and saying things like "this wouldn't have been possible without the help/blessing from President Trump" whenever the admin made an accomplishment. This is north korea/kim jong un type shit. Lol

Not saying anthropic/dario are good guys or whatever.

[heider @heider891]

I'm not a good trader so take my opinion with a pinch of salt. My counterpoint to this is that this seems like consensus opinion (along with the take that the Big 3 IPOs will top the market) but when Trump launch his coin during his inauguration period, barely anyone was talking about crypto market top etc. If anything, everyone was max bullish given his promises to the crypto community. Seems like almost everyone on my timeline as well as my YT feed are bearish this IPO and the effect that this will have on stock mkt. Will be interesting to watch regardless. Also, people have had time to siphon liquidity if they want to ape spcx which wasn't the case in trumpcoin (surprise launch)

[Horse @TheFlowHorse]

The SpaceX IPO will be to the stock market what Trump coin was to alts.

[heider @heider891]

@icobeast https://t.co/Jux9SogGRq

[OddStats @OddStats]

Lord Pretty Flacko here wanted to know
-Max drawdowns
-On Mondays
-Following those terrible NASDAQ Fridays

So I added the column in the middle.

Oof.

[heider @heider891]

@Captain_Scratch @tsungrow On @HyperliquidX but not all stock tickers are available

These are derivative instruments, not actual stocks

[heider @heider891]

Crossing the rubicon

[Jukan @ICML @jukan05]

At least seven people have already shown me the SK Hynix price on Hyperliquid and asked what SK Hynix will open at tomorrow…

I mean, why are people even using Hyperliquid as a reference?

[heider @heider891]

Internet made us question the need for physical stores
Social media made us question the news being spoonfed to us by traditional gatekeepers
Covid made us question the need to be onsite to work or the idea of clocking in 9-5 for the sake of it
AI will make us question the need for humans to do work

[Podcast Alpha @PodcastAlphaX]

Why is @jasonlk replacing employees with token budgets right now - and what stops the rest of corporate America from following?

He literally did it at SaaStr. Replaced B-tier roles with AI spend as capital allocation. The math: a fixed budget, token costs that keep falling, functions AI can perform for a fraction of the human cost.

@rodriscoll's pushback: large enterprises face a harder version. Cutting engineers increases code output. But the bottleneck moves to PM, product marketing, sales enablement. The convoy moves at the speed of the slowest wagon.

One company in Jason's portfolio crossing $100M ARR ships 3x more products this year - but needs 3x more PMs to take them to market.

Why the productivity gain doesn't automatically reach revenue:
https://t.co/VvQSPBfJW6
Source: 20VC with Harry Stebbings - https://t.co/k46qbbGqYM

[heider @heider891]

@gumsays What made you get out in time? Specific signals or catalyst?

[heider @heider891]

@Evan_ss6 Wonder how this would change given the rise of rwa/stock perps

[heider @heider891]

@levie so if the unemployment goes up, it is because of overhiring during covid/zirp era and not due to AI

and if the unemployment goes down, it is because of AI?

[heider @heider891]

I'd personally watch these (assuming data is accurate)

[heider @heider891]

@MikeIppolito_ @Crypto_McKenna it is also different in that they could launch their own HIP3 market with the HYPE accumulated and use fees earn to buyback their own stock, making it more sustainable. Prob too much work for bob and david though

[heider @heider891]

Nah, people will trade assets that go up (shorting is harder). Unless the person is a high frequency trader, it doesn't really matter that much assuming execution is decent.

I mean if cost is that important, why is HL's crypto trading volume still higher than Lighter & Variational (both zero fee)?

[heider @heider891]

@buzzberg_ai @aleabitoreddit @ParadisLabs @jukan05 Could you include Trump? Lol. To see the effect his calls on the stocks (dell, intel etc)

[heider @heider891]

If iran decides to close SOH indefinitely, the world will fall into energy crisis.

If your mom has a penis, she would be your uncle.

Newsy Johnsy

There is a reason crypto folks like Hayes, jordi, seraphim, hoseeb and your beloved jeff yan decide to make Singapore their place of stay (albeit maybe temporary).

[flowmaxxin @flowmaxxin]

@AltcoinSherpa Singapore is not a country
It’s a city state
It has laws where you can be arrested without legal representation
It’s more like a halfway home
It doesn’t have water or food security
It’s neighbors can cutoff supply and they’ll collapse is no time
Weather is crap