Kgaard aka Hoeberian

Straussianism & postmodern political theory. The importance of Chris Ryan's Sex at Dawn. Emerging markets.

[Kgaard aka Hoeberian @hoeberian]

@HoveringBrick @ericnuttall Yes that is exactly the question at hand. Why would the US want the Strait closed?

[Kgaard aka Hoeberian @hoeberian]

@willsolfiac I think these proposals sort of misunderstand the whole purpose of the UK police force.

[Kgaard aka Hoeberian @hoeberian]

@briant_bear I missed that but it is obviously a canard ... and all these canards are collapsing by the day. That is the interesting thing. Everybody already knows the new reality. What they don't want to face are the structural implications. What is the new paradigm for making enough babies?

[Kgaard aka Hoeberian @hoeberian]

@briant_bear Yeah that's what I mean. It can't be artificially replicated. So everyone has to figure out how to attain that state organically.

[Kgaard aka Hoeberian @hoeberian]

@RWApodcast With Tate I think the issue is more just cringiness. He's repackaging ideas that were fresh 15 years ago. With Candace ... she seems like some kind of psy-op.

[Kgaard aka Hoeberian @hoeberian]

@Lordmiles As the global birthrate implodes, the importance of Africa as a place of consumers and laborers increases. Capital requires markets or it dies.

[Kgaard aka Hoeberian @hoeberian]

@MeghanEMurphy American society used to understand this about older women -- but the knowledge was suppressed because it violated the sacred principle that men & women must be interchangeable. We need new paradigms for creation and upbringing of high-IQ children now.

[Kgaard aka Hoeberian @hoeberian]

@insolventXBT @MidwestHedgie @notJoevsMoe @DarioCpx @edzitron I think the deeper challenge is that junior analysts themselves aren't worth much. I stopped using them 15 years ago. By the time they are up to speed on a sector my brain is already on another sector because the world changed.

[Kgaard aka Hoeberian @hoeberian]

@DINOinMDs8th @Dr_Gingerballs @GerberKawasaki Good example.

[Kgaard aka Hoeberian @hoeberian]

@ConcaveMMT @vrexec Medellin isn't that great. Small town. I can think of a 10 better cities in Latam. (Guadalajara, Bogota, Santiago, BA, prob Cordoba, Curitiba, Sao Paulo, San Jose CR suburbs, maybe Montevideo.)

[Kgaard aka Hoeberian @hoeberian]

@ceochristianm @vrexec What America gives you is good-paying jobs and a beautiful landscape. If those are not priorities, or if your priorities are a) Latinas or b) cheap healthcare/retirement, that's when Americans start looking south of the border. There are 1.5m gringos in MX, but just 50,000 in BZ.

[Kgaard aka Hoeberian @hoeberian]

@nuclear_ee @DavidBCollum Yeah? I hear this periodically but I just have no frame of reference for this kind of claim. What's an example of a personal project that would cost $50,000? For myself I have zero personal computer projects. (People used to say AI would book travel for you but who even cares.)

[Kgaard aka Hoeberian @hoeberian]

@Perpetualmaniac @DavidBCollum Interesting take. It's actually hard, once you get silo-ed in the AI-bear algorithm to find coherent AI bulls. Jordi Visser is good but kind of overwhelming.

[Kgaard aka Hoeberian @hoeberian]

@OBI_CR @anasalhajji Yes ... and that brings up the meta-question of what is the purpose (and optimal size) of SPRs. Barrel counting has always been a flawed way to forecast oil price because TOTAL inventories (incl SPRs) are 6-7b bbls. The issue now is whether SPR drains stop before strait opens.

[Kgaard aka Hoeberian @hoeberian]

@Michael54866170 @MarmotRespecter @signulll Interesting.

[Kgaard aka Hoeberian @hoeberian]

@IvanG006 @ekwufinance Yes ... and we don't know what the script will be yet. It's binary -- either they have determined that this event will continue until shortages have materialized, or they haven't. We can't know. Let's say it's 50/50. Futures say this blows over in a year. We'll see.

[Kgaard aka Hoeberian @hoeberian]

@KillerGopher87 @SimonDixonTwitt @saifedean Yeah that is kind of how I thought about it. But have a listen to Simon's debate. It's fascinating. I read the Patterson book a few years ago so was somewhat dialed in to the issues. The history is wild. In my view the guts of BTC are not simple if you're not a techie.

[Kgaard aka Hoeberian @hoeberian]

@JeffClarkUS But look at this from capital's perspective: Capital requires the government to wage perpetual war on the right, because smooth cross-border regulation requires fungibility of human-capital inputs. And today's right is basically about rejection of human-capital fungibility.

[Kgaard aka Hoeberian @hoeberian]

@SimonDixonTwitt Yes that makes sense. My meta-point would be that BTC is destined to be a niche asset, in part because it's so complex. That raises the question of what the proper valuation is for a niche digital asset. Right now it's $1.3 trillion. But maybe it should be 10x that -- or 1/10th.