The Definitive SPX Market Crash Indicator: Here's a new indicator that is a meta-ratio of SPX ÷ (30y Yield / 2y Yield), pricing equities directly against the curve of bond market. It melds the equity price structure into the bonds market term structure.
It's well known that the debt markets are the largest and most institutionally dominated on Earth, dwarfing that of equities, and given those structures, is the only adult in the room. The bond market doesn't trade on narratives, it simply prices risk. As such, when equities are added into a ratio with the term premium, it generates the purest measure of how expensive equities are relative to the shape of the yield curve at any given point in time.
So, when this ratio rolls over it means the term structure is in its final leg of re-steepening and the bond market is thereby withdrawing permission for equities to remain elevated...And that's where we were in 2000, 2008, and 2019 before those crashes, and now again, here we are...the ratio rolled over at the end of '25 while SPX has continued to rise, opening the crash window and sending the starkest warning signal the market has to offer - that the party is coming to an end.
Looking at the chart, I've highlighted the areas in pink which are the crash windows following each signal, where the ratio rolls (red line) over while $SPX (green line) continues rising. The lag from rollover to correction onset since 2000 has ranged from 1-4 months.
The prior rollover points where the ratio peaked and declined each preceded a major crash: 2000 (-49%), 2007 (-57%), 2018 (-20%), 2020 (-34%). And as mentioned, a new signal formed at the end of 2025 that bad things for equities are imminent.
The entire Book of Revelation is a giant chiasm. 🤯
A chiasm is a literary device where ideas unfold in order (A B C) and then repeat in reverse (C B A), forming an X shaped symmetry that aids memory and draws attention to the central point (C).
The Bible is amazing.
@Farmboy1972@atplack@TrevorSheatz For what it's worth, I am pleased to hear you both agree that faith is "active trust" as I was searching around to see if anyone used this definition or phrase.
Thank you both for having active trust
🔥🚨BREAKING: This Man broke down and went off after getting tired of the ‘rat race,’ The never changing 9-to-5 lifestyle, and playing by societal rules and cycles: ‘What’s the point? This whole system is garbage!’
@dom_lucre Could aliens be both angels and demons? Then our job is just to believe that angels will defeat the demons, and things will be "heavenly".
Who's in?
@brandilwells agree with you that Jesus fulfulledn His purpose. Also that He wants us to know how to fulfill ours. Do you have yours ironed out? Consultan
More Footage from the Anti-Israeli Riots yesterday at Makhachkala International Airport in the Dagestan Region of Russia has been Released with this showing the Initial Helicopter Raid by Russian National Guard Troops and Security Forces on the Tarmac at the Airport; Rubber Bullets, PepperBalls, Blank Rounds, and most importantly Fists/Helmets can be seen being used by the Russian Forces in an attempt to get the Situation under Control.