NBA PLAY ☢️
🏀Kawhi Leonard “O” 8.5 RA
-OVER L3/3 vs GSW✅ (13,10,15)
-OVER L2/2 games this season (14,10)
-OVER L15/20 games with 30+ mins
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Kawhi is avg. 17.3 potential R+A so far this season🔥
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NBA Play Record: 663-361 ☢️
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NBA Play #1
🎯James Harden Over 9.5 Assists
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James Harden sees a great matchup vs the Warriors Defense, who have been allowing the 3rd MOST Assists to opposing Points Guards this season at around 11 per game
Harden has hit this line in his last 3/4 games vs the Warriors having 11,16,7 and 10 assist per game. He is also averaging 15 potential assist vs The Warriors overall
Other Guards like Morant , Murray, Luka and more have gone over in recent games vs the Warriors and so will Harden Today
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NBA PLAY #2 🏀
Domantas Sabonis Over 2.5 Turnovers
50 ❤️ FOR ANOTHER PLAY
Sabonis faces the Thudner who allow the 3RD most turnovers to centers in the NBA
Sabonis is a high usage Center expecting the ball to be in his hands a lot of this game along Schroder
Hit this line 0/2 times this season getting 2 turnovers both times expect some regression and Sabonis to sh!t the bed
📊 Data by @OutlierDotBet
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NBA Tuesday Locks:
Giannis Antetokounmpo O 43.5 PR
LaMelo Ball O 13.5 Rebounds + Assist
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The Wagon Is Back This Year 🍾
100 Likes To Get My Next Play ❤️
.8u Josh Hart over 6.5 Rebs -145 Bet365
.5u Hart 8+ Rebounds +110 HR
This is now -150 on MGM I’d take that & then take the -105 the 7.5 is for the same.
I love Hart here as he saw 29 mins last game and although doesn’t start that’s really just for tip and he will close.
He saw 19 mins and then 29 mins and they say no restrictions so I expect 30 ish again tonight.
He had 14 rebounds and then only 5, but 17 chances each in both games.
The Bucks shoot a lot of 3’s which means long rebounds for him to crash and he is also active on the offensive glass.
If you can’t get the Bet365 line just take the .5u on 8+ Rebs somewhere or .75u if all you’re taking.
10.28 NBA Play #1:
Bam Adebayo Double-Double (-120)
#heatnation
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Bam has gone over this line in 7 of his last 10 games and in 83% of his head-to-head matchups, only missing in his most recent game vs. Charlotte after seeing a career-low 12 rebound chances (where he usually sees between 17 and 21).
However, Charlotte ranks 27th in total rebounds allowed to centers this season so far. But when you look at the numbers from centers this season, it looks like they contain them pretty well.
That said, they have not played against a dominant rebounder like Bam, except for Embiid, who was limited in minutes (though Drummond came in and got 13 rebounds in his place).
Looking at Bam from last season, when playing at home, he was averaging 13 rebounds per game. But ESPN has this game as a 7-point spread with a total of 241.5, so they expect it to be a close but high-scoring game, which means high shot volume and rebound volume for the centers, who are going to be the closest to the basket.
Regarding points, Bam has scored 10+ points in 22 straight games and is averaging 19.3 PPG this season. Without Herro, he’s a near guarantee to score at least 10 points. The Hornets have allowed Alex Sarr, Nic Claxton, and Da’Ron Sharpe to score double digits this season, and Bam is averaging 16.5 PPG against the Hornets in his last six matchups.
📊: @propsdotcash
Air Miles✈
Miles Bridges o6.5 Rebounds
(-122 DK | 1.22 Units)
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- Over this line in 2 of 3 games to start the year, averaging 8 rebounds on 13 chances per game. Failed to hit last time vs Washington, but should have solid positioning defensively on Bam here.
- PFs who aren’t allergic to rebounds (cough, Jaren Jackson Jr.) have had success vs Miami to start the year: Banchero (11), Aldama (8), KAT? (18)
- Miami have done a complete U-turn stylistically. After playing at one of the slowest paces last season, they’re playing at the fastest pace in the NBA to start this year, more possessions, more rebounding opportunities.
- Bridges faced Miami three times last year, clearing this line in 2 of 3 and averaging 9 rebounds. He posted 15 rebound chances in every single meeting, showing plenty of volume.
- Although rebound zone alignment isn’t perfect here, Miami are giving up the 11th-most rebounds per game overall and the 9th-most to opposing PFs.
- He averaged 7.3 RPG in 2023–24 and 7.5 RPG in 2024–25. I'll happily take a 6.5 line here.
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KB’s NFL Week 4 MNF Prop #3 🏈
The Sneakiest Prop In The NFL Tonight 🤫
🐬 Tua Tagovailoa OVER 0.5 Rushing Yards
Alright here we go with this one. I’m either going to feel like the biggest idiot for playing this or the sharpest guy out there but there’s only one way to find out. We literally just need ONE rushing yard from this dude, how hard can it really be for him…
The Dolphins have started off the season on a horrible start going 0-3 so far but either way Tua has been surprisingly using his legs a bit more. He’s over this line in 2/3 games averaging 5.7 rushing yards per game.
In week 1 vs the Colts he put up 7 yards on 1 carry and last week vs the Bills on primetime he put up 10 yards on 2 carries.
He now gets a matchup vs the New York Jets who are allowing the 4th most rushing yards to opposing QB’s this season.
Baker Mayfield: 44 rushing yards
Josh Allen: 59 rushing yards
Aaron Rodgers: -1 rushing yards (kneel)
Tua has used his legs a pretty good amount vs this Jet’s team in his career going over in his last 4/5 games vs them averaging 5.8 rushing yards per game along with 2.6 rush attempts and 1.2 scrambles per game.
The Jets play man coverage at a top 10 rate in the NFL, which is great for QB rushing opportunities as it opens up the field for them more and leads to more running space after scrambling.
Like I said earlier we literally just need ONE rush yard out of Tua tonight and meaning he should get this done in hopefully 1 scramble. With 1+ scramble, he’s over in his last 20/20 and 29/30 games!
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NFL Best Bet
Sam Darnold over 215.5 Passing Yards(-115 Fanatics)
Line has moved since being posted to VIP, playable up to 225.5🫡
Cooked up with @coleycashes
Darnold has gone over this line in 2/3 starts this season and is averaging 221 passing yards per game. Darnold went under this line in his first start this season against the 49ers and after that he went over this line in back to back games, recording 295 and 218 passing yards.
So far this season, the Cardinals have allowed the 3rd MOST passing yards and the MOST passing attempts while allowing the 4th LEAST rushing yards per game and 10th LEAST YPC, I expect Seattle and Darnold to beat them through the air here.
Every single QB has gone over their passing yard lines versus the Cardinals this season, with all 3/3 of them seeing 214+ passing yards. We also saw 2/3 go over this line, with Mac Jones recording 284 passing yards and Bryce Young recording 328.
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LeBron James said he thinks the NBA should award an OPOY, similar to the NFL:
“You give an MVP and an OPOY… and it changes. It’s like ‘OK, so is it the best player? Is it the player that had the best season with their team? Maybe that’s OPOY.”
The get-in price for the WNBA All-Star Game in Indianapolis has dropped 48% — from $121 to just $64 — after news broke that Caitlin Clark won’t be playing
(Via @TickPick )
Shaq on his time with Kobe — but what also could have been:
“Our guy (Kobe) had room to operate cuz I got 3 people on me...Probably get a lot of flak, but I always said myself, I think I could've got 3 in a row with T-Mac. I think I could've got 2 with Vince, Oh I know I get 6 with Steph.”
(via Off The Record)