Ravikumar

[Ravikumar @iamtrk]

@TickerDUBS @Milesahead1918 "This isn’t rocket science" - its probably harder than rocker science for now !
private startups are launching rockets while we see only Waymo/Tesla operating at credible L4 level after industry's ~$100bn investments.

long tail cases of AV is hard to crack.

[Ravikumar @iamtrk]

@Milesahead1918 @TickerDUBS It won't be fragmented, its capital intensive to scale even if someone have the technology and economies of scale will be at play. Probably only Waymo, Tesla, Amazon etc will be able to scale.

Tesla/Goog have billions of hours of driving videos, which is crucial for training.

[Ravikumar @iamtrk]

@Ashton_1nvests Scale AV players are only Google & Tesla, there are 1000s of email providers, but who is the leader ?

Mobile OS - Duopoly
FD - Duopoly
Rides - Duopoly
AI - Duopoly with open source
Social media - Duopoly
... when there are economies of scale, it doesn't go beyond 2/3 players.

[Ravikumar @iamtrk]

@chandrarsrikant But Noel Tata is not the majority share holder of Tata sons or Trusts.

Put it this way, no one can govern effectively with out the backing of sovereign !

NC has the full backing of the sovereign ! Noel Tata is not even Indian citizen,no reason for him to go after NC.

[Ravikumar @iamtrk]

@FlippieFinance If you are so obsessed with Price, PE etc with out business fundamentals,
look at $PYPL $NFLX etc they are all down for a reason despite making truck load of money !

$PYPL made $6.4Bn in fy25 & the market cap is $45Bn !

[Ravikumar @iamtrk]

@oguzerkan $TSLA / $GOOG have technology & distribution both !

[Ravikumar @iamtrk]

@timoassi https://t.co/n5OgnL1x0R Uber CEO sold $28.6Mn at much higher price an year back !

[Ravikumar @iamtrk]

@m0xt_ Their analysis reminds me of this McKinsey report https://t.co/eXVbCmxMgR !

[Ravikumar @iamtrk]

@vinodchendhil Why r you discounting the incumbents so much ?! AMZ couldn't beat FK despite everything.

Blinkit/Insta both are IOCC, has substantial scale, FD profits with rigorous execution. Amz/FK might post higher GMV on the back of electronics/mobiles etc but don't think they dominate QC

[Ravikumar @iamtrk]

@Ashton_1nvests Mis-pricing is an exception dude, not the norm.

[Ravikumar @iamtrk]

@anandkhatri Thats wishful thinking, thats not how big tech operates !

Tesla is ruthless & relentless in execution, remember how have they cutdown on dealerships & service centers !

Tesla/Musk are the last guys who needs a distribution partner.

[Ravikumar @iamtrk]

@Ashton_1nvests Ya correct !
Uber's couple of $100Mn investments in couple of AV start-ups is going bring the same capabilities of $50Bn spent on AV development by Google, Amazon, Tesla !

[Ravikumar @iamtrk]

@dhurtado1996 @signulll Unfortunately, that looks like the case.
How many partners do you see Google, Amazon, Tesla has for distribution ?!

Uber could stitch together 20/30AV partnerships by making $100Mn scale investments, but that AV tech can't match scale/safety of Cybercab, Waymo, Zoox etc

[Ravikumar @iamtrk]

@realmateo92 @robchamo https://t.co/s3eqRXfWJf

Its not hard to integrate these delivery robots with autonomous cars.

[Ravikumar @iamtrk]

#AGARWALEYE

[Ravikumar @iamtrk]

@_balaji_km @a16z This is what ultimately we get when a bunch of finance guys run a new age tech company.

Count the beans, scale it well, drive the company to ground in the process.

Its a one trick pony living purely on distribution strength, terminal value of Uber is not very high,if not zero.

[Ravikumar @iamtrk]

@garyblack00 You can summarize it into few sentences
1. No terminal value to the company
2. Robo taxis will catch up volumes in less than a decade, where Uber doesn't have any IP/Scale etc.
3. The string of AV partnerships can't scale technically/financially against Google/Tesla/Amazon.

[Ravikumar @iamtrk]

@suryachaudhary1 Inventory (Days of Sales):
VMM : ~55 days
V2Retail : 136 days

Net Trade Working Capital Days:
VMM: ~15 days
V2Retail : 81 days

All these metrics are not captured in P&L, VMM is far superior operating metrics compared to V2Retail.

[Ravikumar @iamtrk]

@suryachaudhary1 Here you go !
1. VMM SSSG is higher than V2 Retail (10 Vs 7.5%), V2 Retail growth comes from opening more stores.

2. V2 CCC is poor, doesn't make much FCF as it holds onto lots of inventory. 400 Cr QIP in Nov 25 for this exact reason. Trent/VMM never needed cash for expansion.