ian leff

.net database application developer

[ian leff @ileff]

@pamelafox school bus driver 🚌

free training, health care + retirement even for part time

[ian leff @ileff]

@philbak1 because im too cool to hold down shift!1

[ian leff @ileff]

@28delayslater omg haha

[ian leff @ileff]

@o_a_khan i got some dybantsa kalshi shares for $0.08 worth a shot

[ian leff @ileff]

@jaycaspiankang yeah but we don't have mike brown

[ian leff @ileff]

@FredLambert @Gfilche @Gfilche any new board memberships since $FUV? i do wish the e-bike shipped. seems like a lot of the ideas made it into the Also bike.

[ian leff @ileff]

@BrickhouseIND @BrendenNunesNBA don't forget the 0-5 preseason

[ian leff @ileff]

@KevinOConnor don't forget their 0-5 preseason

[ian leff @ileff]

@SnazzyLabs woohoo and window cap for free shipping 🙂

[ian leff @ileff]

@chriskim_dev @bot @Box @Tesla the best commute is no commute

[ian leff @ileff]

@The_StilesFiles we need a champion level coach, maybe Mike Brown?

[ian leff @ileff]

@itsgoldouthere @ChriisDJohnson 0-87 they lost all preseason too

[ian leff @ileff]

@CarmichaelDave 0-9 so far this year. 0-87 still possible.

[ian leff @ileff]

@BobbyGerould they did not

[ian leff @ileff]

@AIandDesign one of the rare part-time jobs that has full health care and retirement is school bus driver 🚌💪

[ian leff @ileff]

@whiteygleason 0-87 is possible

[Andrej Karpathy @karpathy]

Dusting off this tweet from April because this gap in shared understanding of LLM capability is *widening*. It's now less "two groups of people speaking past each other" and more a sharp funnel.

- Napkin math somewhere around 6B people (~75% of the population) have barely come in contact with LLMs at all.
- Around 1-2B (~20%) are casual and infrequent users of free-tier ChatGPT-like products. This group sees derpy chatbots and treats them a bit like a better Google search, a writing aid, or etc. Maybe an agent tries to book you a flight. I have non-tech friends who (reasonably, imo) say they have not much use for it at all. Even many professionals outside of math&code are in this tier. For example, execs and many other functions spend a lot of their time talking to other people, so while they understand what is happening intellectually, it is still second-hand and a bit abstract.
- Now we get to professional use of frontier-grade LLMs in math&code. Somewhere around 20M people (0.2%) see first-hand that large, complex projects that used to take them weeks/months can now be completed by agents with a prompt. Building apps, copying apps, translating apps, decompiling apps from binaries... This has all happened very quickly and recently - less than 1 year ago, I was writing code manually by hand, typing memorized computer code commands into a code editor character by character, occasionally pressing Tab to autocomplete a little chunk of code.
- And finally we get to the ~5,000 people (~0.00006%) with access to frontier-grade systems internally. The external world has seen the preview. It looks like swarms of thousands of agents collaborating over weeks on software mega projects: minting zero days, running cyber attacks and defenses at machine speeds, discovering new science, advancing the frontier of mathematics. Things that would have taken top professionals in the industry years of work. Meanwhile, human review and comprehension are starting to fall behind. For example, people are still involved in the "archeology" of the OpenAI-HF incident from many months ago. Mathematicians may be poring over the 722 manuscripts on frontier mathematics for a while.

The funnel is driven by a combination of factors:
1. The impact scales with ambition, problem size, and horizon. A question with a paragraph answer barely stresses the system. You need a reservoir of big, difficult problems that you really care about. This aspect drives the consumer / professional dimension of the funnel.
2. The jaggedness of the system (which I have written about a lot separately). Capability peaks in domains that are digital, verifiable and economically valuable. This is because LLM capability emerges from reinforcement learning on verifiable rewards on a curated environment mixture driven by revenue potential. This aspect primarily drives the area (e.g. math&code) dimension of the funnel.
3. Access. Free-tier, paid-tier, internal.

So this is the weirdness of the moment. The general public has mostly not interacted with these systems. When they have, it looks like a derpy chatbot. The majority of professionals still see only a modest uplift. And a small sliver of professionals are experiencing the vertigo of the curve going vertical. And it is all happening at the same time.

[ian leff @ileff]

@reddogjamie @games_rozz as a consumer it's great that we are flooded with endless games, tv, movies, sports, youtube.

don't take it personal it is tough for all creators. even huge AAA teams struggle to find their user base.

[ian leff @ileff]

@davepl1968 @Hertz @Tesla https://t.co/ZOxjxaWMF1

[Lyman Zerga @Saul_Bloom]

Blessed to have owned, driven and appreciated many of the greatest cars in the world over the past few decades. I can say, with complete conviction, the new Model 3 is better than any other car—at any price—when it comes to all around daily drivability and convenience. $TSLA

[ian leff @ileff]

@FinXRob i guess you aren't familiar with $VOO top holdings