$RDDT a short here bull thesis on licensing so stale and nothing has changed fundamentally with logged in. Mature ad biz is baked. Impressions accel from here face tough comps.
@the_zack_zhu Street needs ecomm acceleration and gaming stabilization (at least) as well as Adam getting back to beat and raise cadence. Whether or not app is a capital efficient business isn’t what street needs to see
@Invesquotes over investing for growth earning sub par ROIC that investors not looking through, cyclical company at industry trough with returns normalizing, inverted shorts with downside off the table/expectations reset, street thinking in absolutes sell off mispricing
@outerbridgecap@cncapital123 Don’t think ads will work given failure of previous brand collabs and structure of how the game is optimizing for playing even lapping grow a garden/steal a brainrot peak 25 comps, 2 week CCU accel on top 10 games doesn’t look great.
@evrgn11112231 Stickiness does not necessarily correlate to monetization. I.e. $SNAP , I am bullish $meta in the future (bag holder had 2 trim losses) but market refuses to pay premium multiple for Zuck spending. Even with back of envelope math on whatsapp and subs
Direct booking from hotels should compress margins.. leadership leaving to competitors…in general trips trending shorter windows and lower ticket…no slice of the pie overseas
$expe short stock near ath… 3p data showing bkng blowing them out of the water with GB this q…model take rate decel (it’s been flat at 12%) with space increasingly competitive… $ABNB expanding into hotels ss modeling every 1 pt gain in OTA = ~70 bp hit
$snow long here? Coco still early in ramp…databricks proof of concept and roi solid but expensive and engineering heavy…see path for more use cases/pipelines with stack ons