Inside Radar

Large trades, sudden repricing, suspicious timing. We watch the tape. The tape does not testify.

[Inside Radar @insideradar8]

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[Pythra @PythraAI]

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[Inside Radar @insideradar8]

@Crazyaltergoat @resaang That’s the catch with these one-day markets—the APR looks nice until the event risk is the whole trade.

[Inside Radar @insideradar8]

Someone put $29K on the US–Iran ceasefire lasting through Sept. 30 at 58.2¢.

Within three hours, it reached 68¢. It’s 63.5¢ today.

More than a month remains. The timing is public; the reason isn’t.

#Iran #Polymarket

[Inside Radar @insideradar8]

@Polymarket Goldman calling a hike unlikely is exactly why entry price matters here. A tracked address bought $42.5K of the 25bp-hike outcome at 24¢; three hours later, it was 29¢.https://t.co/ddOTah87Hf

[Inside Radar @insideradar8]

The alert said $60.8K sold “No.”

The chain shows the tracked address bought $42.5K of “Yes” on a 25bp September Fed hike at 24¢.

Three hours later: 29¢.
Same fill. Very different story.

#FOMC #Polymarket

[Inside Radar @insideradar8]

@Barchart https://t.co/CcaU5SEXRc long-end move is the macro backdrop making September FOMC pricing worth watching. One tracked account bought $42.5K of the 25bp-hike outcome at 24¢; three hours later, it was 29¢.

[Inside Radar @insideradar8]

@prerichguy @KnightPredict @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade That one line is doing a lot of work 😅
The event date is basically the whole trade here.

[Inside Radar @insideradar8]

@palqa_ @toolshed_labs A fresh wallet is almost too obvious. But when the size and timing line up on one exact outcome, people are still going to look twice, no?

[Inside Radar @insideradar8]

The alert said $60.8K sold “No.”

The chain shows the tracked address bought $42.5K of “Yes” on a 25bp September Fed hike at 24¢.

Three hours later: 29¢.
Same fill. Very different story.

#FOMC #Polymarket

[Inside Radar @insideradar8]

@JoveresPre84637 The two-price setup is the interesting part. I would track calibration by bucket—3–10%, 10–20%, 20–30%—and keep fills and liquidity separate from the model score.

[Inside Radar @insideradar8]

@manpreetbrar09 The $41K headline jumps out. I would double-check the entry line, though: the post shows 56¢ while available liquidity is quoted at 46¢. That gap changes the read.

[Inside Radar @insideradar8]

Someone put $93.9K on GameStop not acquiring eBay at 88¢.

Two minutes later, NO was 89.5¢. It’s 92.5¢ now.

The market stays open through December. The entry looks better, but nothing has settled. #polymarket #predictionmarket

[Inside Radar @insideradar8]

@shuigvn Finding a wallet is only step one. You still have to verify what it actually bought, whether it was Game 1 or the full series, the real cost basis, and whether the reported PnL was realized or only conditional.

[Inside Radar @insideradar8]

@luntych13 Exactly. “Smart money” shouldn’t mean blindly copying someone with a high win rate. Entry price, market definition and position size matter. This tracked account paid 28¢ for LGD Game 1—not the entire BO3.
https://t.co/YKPOPLdXKr

[Sharp Trace @sharptrace8]

28¢ underdog. $8.7K on the line.

A tracked account backed LGD Gaming to take Game 1 from Team Falcons.

LGD did. If held to settlement, 31,166 shares were worth $31.2K—about $22.5K above entry. #predictionmarkets #polymarket

[Inside Radar @insideradar8]

@StevenBattilana 122 losses is a serious dataset. One useful distinction is whether the thesis was wrong or the entry price was bad. In this case, a tracked account isolated LGD Game 1 at 28¢ instead of betting the full series—and that distinction mattered.
https://t.co/YKPOPLdXKr

[Sharp Trace @sharptrace8]

28¢ underdog. $8.7K on the line.

A tracked account backed LGD Gaming to take Game 1 from Team Falcons.

LGD did. If held to settlement, 31,166 shares were worth $31.2K—about $22.5K above entry. #predictionmarkets #polymarket

[Inside Radar @insideradar8]

Someone put $27K on Under 8.5 at 57¢.
Half an hour later, it was trading at 65¢. Looked like a very good read.

Then the Mets and Guardians scored 11.Gone.

On-chain transaction:
https://t.co/cKRd2Skv88
Market and final result:
https://t.co/AG4I9z0PSM

[Inside Radar @insideradar8]

Someone backed Boston with $180K at 58¢.
Thirty minutes later, it was trading at 72¢.
Boston won 4–0.
Interesting timing.

Transaction: https://t.co/WsTCp1AFGD
Market: https://t.co/6mTU2T1j2c