jack

comp sci/math.
former SF, thesis investor.

[jack @InvertedWingr]

@PieterLeeuwenb1 @asxpeasant You are delusional if you think 1% of buyers are underwater. Number is significantly higher than that.

[jack @InvertedWingr]

$AAOI owning this has been annoying lately. the price action doesn't match the news

-> 1.6T sold out through mid-2027
-> Pearland scaling toward ~350% more laser fab capacity by end-2027
-> sector comps beating and guiding up
and the chart still can't hold a bid

why: the $600M ATM opened in May is the structural seller into every rally. that's not sentiment, that's the company itself supplying shares faster than the news can lift the price

this is the tell with capital-intensive ramps. the fundamentals can be perfect and the stock still chops because supply is coming from inside the house

once the ATM goes quiet, either it winds down or 1.6T cash flow makes it unnecessary, the stock gets to actually price the fundamentals instead of absorbing a raise

frustrating to hold through. doesn't change what's underneath it

(long, nfa)

[jack @InvertedWingr]

@InvestingVisual Added more $NUAI & $MU

[jack @InvertedWingr]

$ANTHROPIC just filed for IPO

-> FY25 revenue: $4.59B, +1,088% YoY
-> compute/infra spend: $7.33B, ~3x YoY
-> operating loss: $8.06B (net loss $42B incl. a $34B non-cash charge)
-> cash: $20.28B
-> top 2 customers: ~24% of revenue
-> targeting $2T+ valuation

buried in the filing: $518B of planned cloud/infra spend
that number doesn't just flow to one layer. it cascades through the whole stack

-> power/land: $IREN $NUAI $WULF $CIFR, whoever holds the grid connection
-> optics: $AAOI, every GPU cluster that size needs the transceivers to network it
-> packaging: $AMKR chips at this scale don't ship without it
-> memory: $MU HBM sold out through 2027, this is more demand stacked on an already tight supply

one lab, one filing, and it touches every chokepoint I track & hold.

positioned across the stack

[jack @InvertedWingr]

@the_waveanalyst $19 $ $12 is a hilarious take

[jack @InvertedWingr]

$IREN $NUAI $WULF $CLSK $HUT

MS data: DC IT power demand goes 17.96GW (2026) -> 78.57GW (2029)
4.4x in 3yrs. grid interconnection queues run ~5yr

the bottleneck isn't chips anymore. it's whoever's sitting on energized land before this curve hits

that's the whole trade

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The AI revolution is running into a power bottleneck:

US data center IT power demand is projected to surge +755% from 2025 levels, reaching a record 78.57 gigawatts by 2029.

This year alone, demand is expected to jump +95% to 17.96 gigawatts, and then another +97% in 2027.

This comes as US data centers are set to require 97 gigawatts of power in the 2026 to 2028 period.

Meanwhile, only 21 gigawatts are under construction, and 19 gigawatts of grid capacity are available, leaving a potential 57-gigawatt shortfall.

The gap is widening as increasingly powerful AI systems require far more electricity, while power supply is struggling to keep pace.

At the same time, more complex servers built around Nvidia’s Vera Rubin and Rubin Ultra architectures are expected to push IT power demand 5x from 2025 to 2028.

The AI buildout is running into a significant power constraint.

[jack @InvertedWingr]

@PhluxKapacitor $2.4M/MW is where WULF/RIOT priced earlier this year. NUAI doesn't sign until closer to Q3 2027. if power pricing keeps climbing the way it has, whatever NUAI signs at could come in above $2.4M

[jack @InvertedWingr]

$NUAI, the first hurdle & where we go from here.

Generational wealth is loading. https://t.co/et8oDxFoCh

[jack @InvertedWingr]

fair to flag tail risk, that's what the pre-mortem section is for. I don't have your $0.76 powered-land-only number so can't argue the DCF directly, but I'd push back gently on "consensus long." the stock traded ~30% off its highs before this PPA, that's not a market treating this as a done deal. if it were priced for certainty I wouldn't be sizing it the way I am

[jack @InvertedWingr]

@warfield_pls https://t.co/KgXeQqXUk4

[jack @InvertedWingr]

$NUAI, the first hurdle & where we go from here.

Generational wealth is loading. https://t.co/et8oDxFoCh

[jack @InvertedWingr]

$NUAI

In my honest opinion, is the best asymmetric setup in the entire AI infrasphere.

I have been building position since July & am continuing to add.

long, nfa.

[jack @InvertedWingr]

@bowtiedstocks Double rates rise is inevitable

[jack @InvertedWingr]

@enzoythefuture I really think this is destined to 4x near term

[jack @InvertedWingr]

@retard3dinvst0r $AAOI welcomes you back with open arms (at the exact same level you left it at bc ATM go brr)

[jack @InvertedWingr]

@FindleysFinance If you want the safest bet and you’re full porting an individual stock, some sort of power-adjacent stock over the next 10 years will do you very well.

[jack @InvertedWingr]

@IndexAndForget Yes & no.

It can get boring unless your circle is at a similar stage in their life.

[jack @InvertedWingr]

@drayinvests Good business, good upside here. Feels much lower risk than some other power names and the returns will reflect that.

Likely will well outperform the market despite this.

[jack @InvertedWingr]

@neppy It's like an echo chamber of my own thoughts

[jack @InvertedWingr]

As i live in Australia, 80% of people who invest their money never place it into the stock market, even rarer again to make it into the US markets.

Almost everyone funnels their money into property & real estate. Whether that be through an investment property, renovations in their own home, mum & dad developers doing builds or people who make entire livings out of buying land subdivision sites.

This is the game here, or at least it was. This year has been the sharpest decline in property prices this country has seen in a long time and the stats are not reflecting it yet.

We are about to see a lot of very leveraged up 'genius investors' who've ridden a leveraged bull run like never before seen get unwound very quickly.

The R:R is not worth buying anything even after a circa 20% drop.

#auspol

[jack @InvertedWingr]

@LovedropV @Artemi3535 Up & to the right please