Para entender un poco lo que pasó ayer con Bitcoin y Strategy / Michael Saylor
$MSTR hoy cotiza a 0,82x el valor de su bitcoin:native
La cuenta es simple: market cap USD 44,35B ÷ USD 54,34B en BTC (843.706 monedas) = mNAV 0,82. El mercado paga 82 centavos por cada dólar de Bitcoin que tiene la empresa
Aclaración importante: ese es el mNAV "simple", solo equity. Si le sumás la deuda (USD 8,25B) y las preferentes (USD 9B), que cobran ANTES que el accionista, el mNAV ajustado te da 1.1 aprox
El BTC de Strategy no es todo del accionista: hay una fila que cobra primero
¿Y por qué importa tanto el mNAV? Porque es la regla de decisión de todo el modelo treasury:
- mNAV arriba de 1 -> vendés ACCIONES: emitís caro, comprás BTC, y el Bitcoin por acción SUBE. Esa es la rueda que hizo volar a MSTR
- mNAV abajo de 1 -> emitir acciones destruye Bitcoin por acción. Si necesitás caja para los dividendos de las preferentes, duele menos vender BTC que diluir al accionista con descuento
- La tercera palanca: emitir preferentes (STRC), que levantan caja sin diluir al común… a cambio de un dividendo fijo que hay que pagar SÍ o SÍ
Por eso la venta de 32 BTC de esta semana no es pánico: es la matemática del modelo funcionando en reversa.
Saylor no rompió la promesa de "nunca vender", el mNAV lo obligó. Se pudo haber evitado esta situación? Si... si no hacia tan mala gestión con palanca y compras en malos precios
Last few hours:
$HEI
In my previous post, I mentioned the unusually high volume for a token with such a low market cap. That volume helped drive a move of up to 150% in a very short period of time.
Volume remains elevated. Over the last 24 hours, futures volume has reached $580M, with the majority coming from Binance. However, spot buying has also played a role in the rally.
Heima recently published a proposal to burn 16.5M tokens. A few minutes ago, they announced that community voting is now live.
Meanwhile, traders trying to short the top continue to get liquidated, adding fuel to the move. Over the last 24 hours, $2.4M has been wiped out, and roughly 80% of that came from short positions.
This is still a monitoring-tag token on Binance, meaning it carries delisting risk. Whether the burn proposal is an attempt to build credibility or one final push before a potential delisting is impossible to know. What I do know is that shorting a token like this is extremely dangerous. For a project with this market cap, this kind of volume can lead to absurd price moves.
That said, taking profits never hurts.
$BILL
I was quite bullish when I first posted about this project, but the random and aggressive price swings have started to wear me out. It's becoming difficult to hold.
In yesterday’s post, I mentioned 0.065 as a strong support level. I opened my second position there and got a very solid bounce. I wasn’t wrong about the support, but the project has definitely shaken my confidence.
Whether I hold it long term remains to be seen.
https://t.co/UewLZR3xfK
$SPORTFUN
This was a project I thought could benefit from the World Cup narrative as we get closer to the tournament. I’m still holding, but the volume I was expecting hasn’t arrived yet.
The token continues to post occasional rallies, but it still can’t break through the 0.067 resistance zone. For me, that remains a key level.
If it breaks, a move toward 0.09 could happen fairly quickly.
It’s also a low-cap token with more than 90% of the supply held by the top 10 wallets. People keep asking about my position. For now, I’m continuing to hold.
$GENIUS
I’ve been closely following Binance HODLer Airdrops announcements.
What happened with the last few projects made me think GENIUS could follow a similar pattern, and I shared that view earlier. I believe those who followed it were able to profit from the move.
Both $AIGENSYN and $CHIP dropped more than 50% after being included in the Binance HODLer Airdrops program.
https://t.co/Zc1cHKuMvR
While the announcement sounds positive from a marketing perspective, recently it has consistently been followed by price declines.
Yesterday Binance added $GENIUS to the program as well. Price dropped from 0.58 to around 0.44.
I see 0.40 as the key support level.
CZ has also been posting about the project lately, so another round of promotion is possible. If you're holding a short position, it's worth being cautious.
Finally, there’s $H.
I’m not going too deep into it because I still can’t fully explain what’s happening.
There were heavy transfers over the last few hours. Around 57M tokens (~$15M) were transferred into a BitGo hot wallet.
At first glance it looked bearish, but price showed no negative reaction.
For now, I’m continuing to monitor it.
For faster alerts and updates, you can join the group through the link below.