jacob meyer cohen

"ai safety person"

previously: pupil of politics polls, promoter of personal predictions, purveyor of pencil puzzles

[jacob meyer cohen @jacobmeyercohen]

@teplicarter I thought tbf was to be fair, is it to be frank?

[jacob meyer cohen @jacobmeyercohen]

@m_bourgon @lukeprog What are your favorite aspects of the name MIRI

[jacob meyer cohen @jacobmeyercohen]

@theojaffee link is broken should be https://t.co/oUECaEKQl4

[jacob meyer cohen @jacobmeyercohen]

@theojaffee in reverse order of confidence:

- Convince me to eat a shoe
- Find a second “nice number” (see: https://t.co/6ez5ncfaaW)
- Cause Siri or Alexa to be meaningfully better products
- Give me advice that I accept that leads to a significant improvement in my happiness

[jacob meyer cohen @jacobmeyercohen]

@cjiang00 @akrolsmir @__venki__ LOL I interpreted MM as Manifold Markets (with only a bit of cognitive dissonance)

[jacob meyer cohen @jacobmeyercohen]

@VesselOfSpirit thank you for being brave enough to say this. some of these supposedly "unbiased" "expert" commenters post "objections", but if you look into their funding sources, they have a clear conflict of interest with the effective addition movement

[jacob meyer cohen @jacobmeyercohen]

@NicholasD91704 yay! the people should know

[jacob meyer cohen @jacobmeyercohen]

@shrimptron @theojaffee wait maybe I should do this

[jacob meyer cohen @jacobmeyercohen]

@shrimptron @theojaffee still maybe I should do this

[jacob meyer cohen @jacobmeyercohen]

@shrimptron @theojaffee only 7-14 days per year :(

[jacob meyer cohen @jacobmeyercohen]

@teplicarter @fadedanddemoted what’d you say?
sorry I didn’t hear you
excuse me?
can you repeat that?
[tries to infer from context what was said and proceeds with conversation]

[jacob meyer cohen @jacobmeyercohen]

@shrimptron @theojaffee I asked the front desk people at specifically the East Asia Library and I don’t think that one works, but I would love to learn I’m wrong!

[jacob meyer cohen @jacobmeyercohen]

@teplicarter I have read the SSC book review! It was quite interesting, and I can see the case of Hoover being underrated, I just thought it a rather amusing juxtaposition

[jacob meyer cohen @jacobmeyercohen]

@teplicarter HOW ARE YOUR TWEETS SO GOOD omg

[jacob meyer cohen @jacobmeyercohen]

@teplicarter how about a little dishonesty in exchange for some helpfulness? as a treat?

[jacob meyer cohen @jacobmeyercohen]

@theojaffee UC Berkeley libraries seem to be more open than Stanford libraries to non-students!

[jacob meyer cohen @jacobmeyercohen]

@solidstate_birb @SemioticRivalry I’m not Semi but the classic one is Superforecasting. I personally like The Signal and the Noise.

[jacob meyer cohen @jacobmeyercohen]

@theojaffee @netcapgirl Def crazy how high-liquidity the markets are all these days ... I wonder if Kalshi is ooms higher and I should just trust it now.

Though markets have also had some big failures lately (Francesca Hong, almost AES) and I think there's still alpha in Nate Silver + other sources

[jacob meyer cohen @jacobmeyercohen]

@theojaffee @netcapgirl Could also be cool to have it compare all the different predictions ... would be cool for surfacing discrepancies / arbitrage opportunities (though this definitely drifts a bit from the core goal of just exploring the state of the elections itself)