The Economic Cost of Political Transitions.
I was nine years old when President Museveni came to power. It was about 8 p.m. on the night of January 25, 1986, when we heard celebratory bursts of gunfire from the nearest urban centre—Mbiriizi Trading Centre, about 150 kilometres from Kampala on the road to Mbarara in Western Uganda. Like many Ugandans, we knew the country had entered a new political dispensation.
About a year later, in May 1987, the government introduced one of the most draconian economic reforms in Uganda's history. The new currency replaced the old at a rate of 100 old shillings for 1 new shilling. But the conversion did not stop there. A 30% stabilization levy was imposed, meaning that anyone exchanging old currency received only 70 new shillings for every 10,000 they brought to exchange. Overnight, cash savings were essentially wiped out.
The reform was far more than a currency exchange. It formed part of a broader stabilization programme supported by the IMF and World Bank to combat runaway inflation, reduce excess liquidity, and restore confidence in an economy that had become dominated by black-market transactions. The package combined demonetization, a sharp currency devaluation, and a one-off tax on cash holdings.
The effects reached far beyond the arithmetic of exchanging banknotes. At the same time that cash balances were greatly reduced by the stabilization levy, the Ugandan shilling was sharply devalued against the U.S. dollar. Imported goods immediately became more expensive, inflationary pressures persisted, and the real value of household savings fell even further. Families who had accumulated wealth in cash saw a substantial portion of that wealth disappear almost overnight.
Today, many Ugandans once again hold significant portions of their wealth in cash and fixed-income instruments like unit trusts holdings and pension savings driven primarily by attractive Treasury bond yields. These have served investors well in recent memory.
However, history reminds us that political transitions often carry economic consequences. They can alter fiscal policy, monetary policy, investor confidence, exchange rates, and inflation.
The exact path of Uganda's next political transition appears to be in contest but history suggests that periods of political change are also periods when prudent investors should think carefully about risk management. Its important ask yourself how well your personal finance universe is prepared for whatever economic adjustments may accompany the political transition.
The lesson from 1987 is not to predict another currency reform. Rather, it is to remember that concentration risk (aka Uganda Country Risk) carries consequences. Diversification across different asset classes and prudent portfolio rebalancing may be of absolute necessity. For those that can pull it off, it may be worthwhile to offshore part of your portfolio.
Political transitions have economic consequences. Your goal should be not get wiped out if the unexpected happens.
By Livingstone Mukasa
[email protected]
Before you save for the future, make sure you've eaten today.
Not every investment needs an account. Some belong in your health, your family, your friendships and your peace of mind.
A future worth reaching is one you don't have to sacrifice your entire present to build
Many doctors, you go to them that you want a C/Section, their advise will push you towards it, make you consent but at the back they're doing it for the money.
Patients' consent and autonomy is good but currently so many doctors are spinning it to make money off you all in the name of patient consented!!
So you find it right a 20years old boy to do a vasectomy because he consented, and most of you give them half backed information such that they end up doing the procedure since you make money from it.
You keep saying we provided information and patient made an informed decision.
Not every consent is a consent, some are tricked consents and we have seen it happening
The UK Visa Application Centre (VFS Global) in Westlands, Nairobi, is a masterclass in modern day exploitation.
Kenyans pay hundreds of dollars, wait in the sun, get misinformed, and walk away feeling less human. The new venue at Principal Place (yes, they left 9West) has no proper waiting area and no parking. This is by design to have you pay 17K for their VIP/Premium “services “
If you’re not paying for premium services, you’re left outside in the heat, on the pavement. Elderly people, parents with kids, students, all treated like a security threat
Their Communication is Trash. You get vague emails like “your passport is ready for collection ” only to be turned away and told “collection is from 2pm to 5pm, (you can easily indicate that on the same damn email) That means if you show up at 10am, you’ll have to wait till 2pm or you can easily pay the 17K to be attended to quickly.. ?? EXPLOITATION
No clear timeline. No courtesy. You’re meant to guess your way through it.
These centers aren’t run by embassies, they’re outsourced to private companies who monetize your desperation. It’s a business, not a service.
And guess what? No refund if your visa is denied(familiar?)
The worst part? This is normalized.
We’ve accepted that applying for a visa means surrendering your dignity just to maybe be allowed into a country that benefits from our labor, money, and talent.
If Global North countries want to charge Africans these high fees and accord them zero dignity , the bare minimum should be basic human respect. Decent waiting areas. Transparent timelines and Fair communication.
This isn’t about security. It’s about power and exploitation…
This system needs to be called out and changed.
And it’s time African governments started protecting their citizens from this daylight exploitation.
Vaccines aren’t necessarily as safe as we’re told.
They swore COVID vaccines were safe. Later they changed and acknowledged they weren’t.
We’re told MMR vaccines are safe for children but are they?
If you care about your infants, fertility and future children read on and share.🧵
Pay yourself a salary.
Yes, even 10k. Don’t eat directly from the business. Pay yourself a weekly/monthly fixed amount. That’s how you learn to live within your means and see if the business is actually profitable.
While we might have disagreed with and been disappointed by the @UHRC_UGANDA for not having done what they were supposed/expected to do on some occasions, we should stand in their defence when they’re threatened for doing the right thing against high odds. That way, we will encourage more officials to boldly stand with the oppressed.
What has followed the Commission’s courageous letter shows why many choose silence and non-action, and it perhaps explains the Commission’s earlier hesitations in matters of political violations. Let’s not castigate them in times when they’ve taken the risk to do right. Our mockery of them serves the violators. Let’s stand with madam Wangadya and colleagues in the Commission against the national bully on rampage that has turned himself into Law.
Treasury bonds are essentially you Douglas Lwanga lending to a Government.
So the same caution you’d exercise before lending to me(an individual) should be the same caution you exercise while dealing with any government.
The risk in Lending to the US, UAE or Kenya(stable governments) is lower than lending to potentially unstable countries like Somalia, DRC and others.
A rule of thumb is never lend to a country that has never had a democratic change of power or where the current government was formed after a military coup. Would it be wise to lend to Burkina Faso right now?🤔 I don’t think so.
Also note that payment of your treasury bond is dependent on the survival of the state. If a government collapses or is overthrown, it may default on its debt, causing you to lose your principal and interest, with limited legal recourse.
This is the reason most rich people support the current government, it has nothing to do with conviction, it’s just that they have lent the Govt money and the NRM’s survival is the only way they are getting their money back.