Jared Smith

Weather (@chswx and @CarolinaWxGroup), dachshunds, software, Padres. Largely dormant these days; for more.

[Jared Smith @jaredwsmith]

Bluer skies are looking better and better these days. See you there?

https://t.co/rdBvUBrJI5
https://t.co/x5YF3VXO6v

[Jared Smith @jaredwsmith]

@WxFront @wxrjm Yep, I see it in my local storage. Might be able to concoct something to transfer them between machines. In any event, I'm really looking forward to seeing how this evolves! Great showcase of WebGL.

[Jared Smith @jaredwsmith]

@WxFront @wxrjm Do settings save to the web? I've been working through a couple different browsers on a couple different machines and have had to reset my settings every time (and I am logged in)

[Jared Smith @jaredwsmith]

@WxFront The web app is great. One issue, though: when using Safari, I'm not able to upload a custom colormap. I select "Upload .pal" from the dropdown and nothing happens.

[Jared Smith @jaredwsmith]

@wellACTUALILY CEO

[Jared Smith @jaredwsmith]

@wellACTUALILY @AshokC2011 @LBknowsBall They’re at Seaside Market. Really, really, really good.

[Jared Smith @jaredwsmith]

@rich_roberts Duran is a dawg. Has made the most of his opportunity so far.

[Jared Smith @jaredwsmith]

SAY IT DONNIE!

[Yohan @yohaniddawela]

Physics-based weather models still beat AI when it matters most. Not on average. On the most extreme days.

This is the opposite of what we've been hearing...

A new paper in Science Advances ran every major AI weather model: GraphCast, Pangu-Weather, Fuxi, against ECMWF's HRES across 162,751 record-breaking heat events, 32,991 cold records, and 53,345 wind records in 2020.

On average conditions, the AI models win. GraphCast, Fuxi, and the rest outperform HRES on standard temperature and wind benchmarks across most lead times. This matches what every prior benchmark study has shown. AI weather forecasting is genuinely impressive.

Then the researchers asked a different question. What happens when the event is unprecedented? Not extreme. Not the 95th percentile. Actually beyond anything in the training data.

HRES won every single category. Heat records. Cold records. Wind records. Nearly every lead time. The performance gap was largest at short lead times, where AI models should have the most information and the least uncertainty.

The bias pattern is pretty massive. The AI models systematically underestimated how extreme the events were. The bigger the record exceedance, the larger the underprediction. The researchers describe it as an implicit 'soft cap': the models behave as if they can't forecast values much beyond the most extreme thing in their training data. The bias grows almost linearly with how far the event exceeded the record. HRES showed no such pattern.

This isn't a fluke. The same result held in 2018 and 2020, which had opposite ENSO conditions. It held across the tropics, subtropics, mid-latitudes, and high latitudes. It held for all three variables. It held when the researchers ran an alternative evaluation specifically designed to avoid the forecaster's dilemma.

The mechanism is pretty straightforward. AI weather models are trained on ERA5 reanalysis data from 1979 to 2017. They learn to interpolate between historical weather patterns. When a new initial condition arrives, they find the nearest analogues in training and produce something in between. Record-breaking events, by definition, have no close analogues. The model has never seen anything quite like this, so it regresses toward the most extreme things it has.

Physics-based models like HRES don't work this way. They solve partial differential equations describing atmospheric dynamics. They don't need a historical analogue for a 48°C heatwave in Siberia. The physics doesn't care whether it's happened before.

The authors are careful about what this means. AI models remain faster, cheaper, and competitive on average conditions. Probabilistic AI forecasting is developing rapidly. Data augmentation with simulated extreme events and hybrid physics-AI architectures are plausible paths forward. This isn't a verdict on AI weather forecasting broadly.

But the policy implication is quite important. The events where AI models fail hardest are exactly the events where accurate forecasting matters most. Record-shattering heat. Unprecedented wind storms. The scenarios that overwhelm emergency response, strain infrastructure, and kill people because no one expected them to be that bad.

The authors wrote it plainly: it remains vital to fund and run physics-based NWP and AI weather models in parallel. I find it an unusually direct recommendation in a methods paper.

Climate change means record-breaking events are becoming more frequent, not less. The training distribution is shifting. AI models trained on 1979 to 2017 data will see more and more out-of-distribution events as the climate diverges from that baseline. The extrapolation problem the researchers identified isn't going away. It's getting harder.

The models that can't forecast records are being asked to forecast a world that's setting them constantly.

Link to full paper: https://t.co/KYvUreAhgt

[Jared Smith @jaredwsmith]

@3YearLetterman Amen, Coach.

[Jared Smith @jaredwsmith]

@backinblack_wx Congrats! Welcome to Charleston!

[Jared Smith @jaredwsmith]

@wellACTUALILY Can confirm.

[Ryan Cohen @RyanCohen24]

Happy birthday Gavin Sheets

[Jared Smith @jaredwsmith]

@wellACTUALILY @akmo1226 Hel-lo!

[Ash GC ⚾️ @Ash_Padres]

@TooMuchMortons_ MARILUZ LMFAOO

[Jared Smith @jaredwsmith]

Never a doubt. #LFGSD

[Brian Krassenstein @krassenstein]

While many of you are likely yelling "GO PATRIOTS" or "GO RAMS!" I'm yelling "GO ROBERT MUELLER and the rule of law!"

#SuperBowl2019Atlanta

[Cam @42Cyc]

How every NFL team did in Free Agency

[Jared Smith @jaredwsmith]

Joe Davis: "Duarte coming back from Tommy John surgery…"
@wellACTUALILY: "Or…Tomas Juan surgery"

[Dow @mark_dow]

Timeline:

2014: Trump says Obama will invade Iran because he's not a good enough negotiator to get a deal with them

2015: Obama, with the backing of the EU, China, Russia and others, gets a deal with them

2018: Trump cancels deal bc it was Obama's and says he can negotiate a better one.

2018-2020: Trump can't negotiate one. Arms control experts and Trump officials start to grumble that scrapping Obama's deal was probably a bad idea.

2025: Trump still can't negotiate a new deal

2025: Israel launches an attack on Iran. Drags Trump in. Trump claims Iran's nuclear capacity was wiped out

2025-2026: Trump still can't negotiate a deal

2026: Trump launches a regime change war on Iran, at Israel's goading