jasaki

"don't call it a comeback." i have been here for years."

[jasaki @jasaki1]

i will NEVER forget this night; this was the moment that changed EVERYTHING for me...

[Money Power Politics with Stephanie Ruhle @mppmsnow]

#BREAKING: @NBCNews projects incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) wins the Georgia Senate runoff.

@MSNBC @stevekornacki @Maddow

[jasaki @jasaki1]

@BrettErickson28 You nailed it!

[Face The Nation @FaceTheNation]

Unlike Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq, where reporters embedded with U.S. troops documented the conflict from the ground, the war with Iran has largely been seen through government-produced videos, presidential social media posts and limited official briefings, leaving Americans with fewer independent accounts of what their government is doing in their name, @margbrennan notes.

[jasaki @jasaki1]

@IranIntl_En WAR CRIMES

[Iran International English @IranIntl_En]

The United States appears to have used a 2,000-pound bomb in an overnight strike Thursday on a densely populated neighborhood on Iran’s Qeshm Island, the New York Times reported.

An analysis of videos, photographs and satellite imagery by the newspaper and weapons experts found that the crater’s size and munition fragments were consistent with a Mark 84, one of the largest conventional bombs used by the US military.

The location and timing matched US operations in the area, the report said, adding that the evidence raised questions about the intended target and why such a large munition was used on the island, which is located in the Strait of Hormuz off southern Iran.

Following the strike, Iranian officials said the strike hit a residential home, killing a couple and their two-year-old child.

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S military is officially out of ideas on how to tackle Iran

According to CNN, the Pentagon sent out an email asking troops for ‘creative and unconventional’ ideas to punish Iran

That's CNN, not the Babylon Bee

The bizarre request came from an officer in U.S Central Command’s intelligence branch, and when it hit the press, CENTCOM tried to explain it away:

"U.S Central Command has a long history of thinking and working in innovative ways."

Yeah, right

Source: CNN / Writer: Ian

[jasaki @jasaki1]

@BrettErickson28 When the French and Brits governments invaded the Suez Canal in 1956, and subsequently forced to redraw by the US and UN, that was the beginning of their international decline and both hard and soft power…weakening their grip on their colonies from Africa to Asia. US take note

[Larry Sabato @LarrySabato]

BIG Forecast today by Strength in Numbers and FiftyPlusOne:
Democrats strongly favored to take the House (85% chance). Senate tilts Democratic (55% chance). https://t.co/fdniROUcER

[jasaki @jasaki1]

@BrettErickson28 Oil is artificially priced and also you are not looking at the bigger picture. Artificially priced barrel of oil doesn’t refill the coming reserves crisis.Trump can play the oil market all he wants but it doesn’t refill the strategic oil reserves depletion…Watch end of August

[jasaki @jasaki1]

@FurkanGozukara He’s absolutely right

[Furkan Gözükara @FurkanGozukara]

🚨 BREAKING: Prof. Robert Pape confirms the global economy is going off a cliff due to the Trump administration's disastrus war on Iran.

He warns Trump might launch a catastophic ground invasion because he refuses to accept Iran as the fourth center of world power!

[Brett Erickson @BrettErickson28]

Iran would be fools to return to the MOU. They won’t, because they’re not fools, but let me briefly explain why this would be so absurd.

Under the original MOU, Iran received ONE up front concession: oil sanction waivers.

These were effectively neutered by the United States when they revoked them without notice, and added escrow accounts during the 10-day wind down period.

Why is this significant?

This is because the oil waivers are inherently predicated on countries believing that they can purchase Iranian oil AND have it seen through to delivery. They are gambling their supply on Iran’s ability to legally deliver said oil.

Washington, by revoking the waivers, proved PERMANENTLY that any future sanctions lifting on their oil is not durable. Not trustworthy.

This ensures that it is not a meaningful concession in the future.

In addition to this, the ONLY reason Iran accepted so little up front is because they had stockpiled ~60M barrels of oil on vessels inside of the blockade line before the MOU. This meant that once the MOU was signed, and the blockades were lifted, Iran could RAPIDLY export this oil outside of the blockade line, knowing that if it was reimposed, this was essentially $7B they could reap regardless.

This time however, the United States has struck vessels seeking to load oil post-MOU destruction. Now, Iran does not have that same incentive to lift the blockades with so few up front benefits… particularly because they’re in a STRONGER position now than they were before.

As a result, Iran will almost certainly need IMMENSE asset unfreezing upfront before any blockade is lifted. By most estimates, Iran has ~$100B to $120B of frozen assets in other countries locked up by U.S. sanctions.

Iran has repeatedly stated that they plan to recoup a significant portion of this UP FRONT in any new MOU.

[Brett Erickson @BrettErickson28]

The Gulf countries FEAR Iran. This is irrefutable after the events of the past week. Saudi, the UAE, Qatar… they know that Iran can hit them at will.

This is one of the greatest points of leverage now for Iran, and it essentially locks Trump in to the dueling blockades as the only strategy now.

Iran has proven to the world, and more importantly the GCC, that U.S. military defenses are incapable of defending their most important economic infrastructure against a $30,000 drone.

This newfound power… control… is something that will greatly diminish the United States’ global standing for years after this war. The damage to US reputation as a defensive partner will last for DECADES as a result of this failure.

All that Trump has now is the dueling blockades. All eyes should be solely fixated on the Omani Route. Many people are underestimating the traffic moving through here. While it is certainly nowhere close to enough… the mainstream reporting is only focused on AIS visible transits, and that’s missing a big piece of the puzzle.

With the Gulf countries now absolutely TERRIFIED of Iran, Washington’s only hope is to establish a SAFE corridor through the Omani channel. All indications point to the fact that they are militarily incapable of doing so, but if there is anything to watch right now…

It’s the Omani Channel.

[jasaki @jasaki1]

@FurkanGozukara he's absolutely right

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Trump didn't chicken out on Iran. That's Aaron David Miller's whole point

The "canceled strikes" everyone panicked about were never real in the first place. A bluff, known to maybe 5 people. Netanyahu found out from a Truth Social post like the rest of us.

Why does Trump keep doing this instead of just finishing it? Miller says he's stuck between 2 moves he hates. Go all in on Iran's energy infrastructure and he's committed to a war against a country twice the size of Afghanistan. Cut a real deal and he's basically handing Iran the Strait of Hormuz.

So he does neither; threaten, blink, repeat.

And don't count on the midterms forcing his hand. Trump's not on the ballot. Incumbents have only gained House seats 3 times in a hundred years, so a loss just gets pinned on the candidates.

The part that actually got me: the compromise on the table has Iran running toll access through the Strait. Not Suez, not Panama. A natural waterway that's always been free. Miller ran the math live, it's billions a year, plus Iran gets to shut it down anytime talks stall.

So if Trump signs this to say he ended the war, did he end anything, or did he just agree to pay Iran rent on oil shipping forever?

@aarondmiller2

[jasaki @jasaki1]

@MykhailoRohoza YES!

[Tom Winter @Tom_Winter]

The answer to this question is mathmatic.

Japan owns $1.143 Trillion in US debt, according to the US Treasury.

So if Japan needed to defend its currency without the US buying Yen it would almost certainly sell its US debt.

That would lead to a rise in the interest rates.

[jasaki @jasaki1]

@citrinowicz @politico SAD FACT

[jasaki @jasaki1]

@OlenaRohoza SLAVA UKRAINE

[WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧 @WarMonitor3]

Insane video of Ukrainian forces targeting a massive Russian military fuel convoy heading out of Crimea with drones.

[Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape]

Trump's pattern of strategic defeat is only leading to more escalation, a world economic crisis, and more gains for Iran