GJWValue

All posts are personal opinions, NOT investment advice, DYODD

[GJWValue @jayg327]

@charle77238 smart man, sometimes it's better to just take the losses and move on, especially when the narrative changes. Plenty of opportunities at the moment.

[GJWValue @jayg327]

@FidelisAurelius our turn as $celc remains my largest position. Fingers crossed!

[GJWValue @jayg327]

$abvx as much as I believe the malignancy signal is noise, have to say this trade just got a lot more complicated. at $102 overnight, can't say the risk/reward in the short term is that attractive. Brutal down 7% day for me. It absolutely sucks, but abvx has been an incredibly profitable trade since last October when I first bought it so I'm not complaining. This was the risk that I consciously decided to take so no regrets. Gave back 20% of my abvx profits and trimmed ~50% here around $100. Live to fight another day. $celc have mercy on me tomorrow pls lol

[GJWValue @jayg327]

@FidelisAurelius very fair take. agree on the complete narrative shift after this data. Better opportunities elsewhere

[GJWValue @jayg327]

@FidelisAurelius @monaco_biotech @WassimLaroussi3 lol that's a good one, really cracked me up. I needed the laugh after what happened today.

[GJWValue @jayg327]

WTF TWO HALTS IN A DAY??????

[GJWValue @jayg327]

$prax HALT!!!!!!!!

[GJWValue @jayg327]

$abvx HALT!!!!!

[GJWValue @jayg327]

@blondesnmoney @EhrmantrautCap_ $IGIC

[GJWValue @jayg327]

$LITE $AAOI starting to add back my photonics exposure here. structuring my lite pos 2x aaoi cuz lite is higher conviction pick and much less execution risk. besides the memory names, which i still own, these have the best long term setup imo.

[GJWValue @jayg327]

50% is vast underreaction to the 2027 projections. bought a 5% position at $78, this should be at >$150. Thx @aleabitoreddit, u're the GOAT

[GJWValue @jayg327]

$EWY turns out it did work out great after all. Though I'll say I was a bit early buying such a big position at 145. adds in the 120s helped. the $hy9h i picked up at 520s eur is a 2.5x already. I'll admit that i never imagined this fast of a rerating but I'll take it!

[Control-Alt-Delete @Alty_Markets]

@jayg327 Oh you’re buying memory stocks on forward P/E? That always worked out great

[GJWValue @jayg327]

@Driller562 @Biotech_Beast @Tony_Calles literally takes two mins to find this info yet u keep embarrassing urself with ur bad takes. tell me how they could have used capi when it isn't even approved lol. take a break, dude. data is Tuesday.

[GJWValue @jayg327]

@Driller562 @Biotech_Beast @Tony_Calles alpelisib was the SOC when the trial was designed. Capi wasn't even approved at the time or trial commencement. Capivasertib was approved in November 2023 and Viktoria-1 started enrolling first patient in december 2022. how hard is it for you to understand that?

[GJWValue @jayg327]

@RudyResearch imagine if they release on the 2nd AH lol

[GJWValue @jayg327]

@RiskInhibitor

[GJWValue @jayg327]

@RudyResearch need more $celc for my $jelq

[GJWValue @jayg327]

@Agent0088156721 all the extra short interest will add fuel to the fire next week imo. exciting

[GJWValue @jayg327]

@johnn355 your professor is a really smart man

[GJWValue @jayg327]

first of all, which drug has the better safety profile is up for debate and too early to tell between lly's scorpion drug and geda. So that's a big if right there.

Second of all, single target inhibition has limited efficacy potential compared to the pan pi3k/mTor approach geda is taking. let me quote celc ceo here when he was asked about future competition on the q4 2025 call:

"I think the results to date for geda certainly, we think, demonstrate the value and importance of providing comprehensive inhibition of this pathway as opposed to selective inhibition of this pathway. So as far as impact on us, we actually -- we think, again, that targeting approach will be obsoleted if the data we hope to report out soon is what we hope and expect."

let's give the scorpion drug the benefit of the doubt and say it does 11m mpfs in its future ph3, which is a very generous assumption. now whether docs will prefer geda or scorpion will depend on the tolerability/efficacy tradeoff. if geda comes in around ~11 to 12m in mutant, sure then they'll compete on safety/tolerability and it's possible the next gen pi3k alpha inhibitors might win that competition in mt. However, if geda triplet mpfs comes in above 14m at asco, then geda would have clearly superior efficacy and your assumption is that docs will prefer scorpion drug over geda would be questionable. So a lot depends on the mpfs/HR at asco. if stoma is as big of an issue as you think, the wt trial would have had way more discontinuations than it actually had.

anyways, we'll have the answers in a few days. cheers