jazzdicekey

プロダクトマネジメント、事業開発、テクノロジー 、JAZZ/Neo-Soul

[Kacper Piotr Kaminski @Kacper_PK_CH]

Wheat - $WEAT

In the last great bull market we had six pullbacks to the weekly trend. I expect similar price action this time as well.

Those were six solid opportunities to enter with a good risk-to-reward ratio, and in my opinion it’s worth trading each and every one of them. We’ve now had the second one in this bull market.

Eventually the move gets exhausted and we lose some money on the last one. Small price to pay.

Same applies to bear markets, although they are more tricky from trading perspective.

[うちた @uchita_success]

デロイトの351枚スライド、
時間軸モノは全部スイムレーン型だった。

「で、これ誰がやるの？」が起きないように、主語をレーンで分けて責任の所在を可視化する型。プロジェクト管理でも業務フローでも使える。

プロンプト・パワポデータも置いてます👇

[にも｜AIによって爆誕 @ai_ai_ailover]

南場さんの「無慈悲なAI」経営術スピーチ。全日本人が見るべき。

[Eric Nuttall @ericnuttall]

Squeeeeeeeeeeze.

[Kabu Berry (yama) @nagoya_kabuoff]

サーティーワンはどのような改革をしたのだろう・・・ほぼ5年で売り上げ2倍。

[Bullish Trend @trend_bullish]

$CVE.TO headed to 50$

[HFI Research @HFI_Research]

Panic across the board.

Crude timespreads are squeezing.

[Richard Dias @RichardDias_CFA]

It's not looking good, folks 🙈

[Energy Burrito™️ @energyburrito]

The short squeeze on Brent will be eye watering.
Love,
Burrito

[たけぞう @noatake1127]

トランプ米政権は23日、新たに日本を含む60カ国・地域に追加関税をかけると発表した。税率は10%または12.5%で、日本は原則12.5%とした。米東部時間24日午前0時1分（日本時間午後1時1分）に発動する。

[Ben Bajarin @BenBajarin]

I have always argued, $AMD CPU architecture being scalable and flexible to be designed to different workloads is an architectural advantage. One architecture able to become a family of variants is a differentiator.

Via @LisaSu

"This is the highest performing CPU that drives AI host nodes. It has eight compute chiplets, each with 12 cores, running at up to five gigahertz, with the I/O and memory bandwidth to keep the GPUs completely fed. And this is the CPU that I showed you before shipping inside Helios.

Now. this is its bigger brother. It's Venice 256 core. This is the chip that's built for Agentec sandboxes, and it also has eight compute chiplets. But each of the chiplets now has 32 cores, so it scales all the way to 512 threads, and it is the highest compute density in the industry. Customers get more agent capacity per watt, per dollar, per rack, bar none."

[Andrey Sizov @sizov_andre]

Why #wheat is surging again: up to 3.0 million tonnes a month at risk

Wheat is back near two-year highs. And every major wheat spike in recent years has had one thing in common: the Black Sea.

Early 2022: the start of the Russia–Ukraine war.
Summer 2023: the collapse of the Black Sea grain deal.
May 2024: frost damage to Russia’s wheat crop.
Now: attacks on vessels and growing disruption to shipping.

Russia is by far the world’s largest wheat exporter, while Ukraine is another major supplier. Together, they account for roughly 30% of global wheat exports.

For wheat, the Black Sea is something like the Strait of Hormuz for oil. Trouble there can quickly become a global pricing event.

This time, it started in the Sea of Azov. Navigation there is still halted after repeated attacks on vessels. Azov normally accounts for roughly a quarter of Russian grain exports.

But it didn’t stay there.

Ships have also been attacked in the Black Sea near Ukraine. Odesa ports are facing disruption, while Maersk has suspended container calls at Chornomorsk and is rerouting vessels to Romania.

Even Novorossiysk, Russia’s largest grain export hub, briefly halted navigation after an overnight attack.

And this is no longer just a grain story. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium, whose shareholders include major U.S. oil companies, also shut down its oil terminal in Novorossiysk.

Ukraine can reroute some grain through the EU and the Danube, but this is neither easy nor cheap. Capacity is limited, and Danube water levels are currently the lowest in 30 years.

At first, the market treated this as another familiar Black Sea scare. Fair enough: these rallies often disappear as soon as shipping resumes.

But this disruption has lasted longer, affected more vessels and spread across a wider area.

Our preliminary estimate is that Russia and Ukraine could ship 1.5–3.0 million tonnes less grain per month in the short term, mainly wheat.

That is roughly 20–30% of their expected combined monthly exports. The midpoint of our estimate- 2.25 million tonnes - is equivalent in volume to around 13% of all wheat traded globally in an average month.

It doesn’t mean all that grain disappears. Some will be delayed or rerouted. But it is easily enough to move the global wheat market.

That helps explain why CBOT and Euronext wheat have hit contract highs, returning to levels last seen during Russia’s May 2024 frost rally.

My read: the rally can continue if the disruption lasts for another few weeks - or starts seriously affecting Russia’s large deep-water terminals.

But Black Sea rallies can reverse brutally.

After the grain deal collapsed in July 2023, attacks escalated quickly and then stopped just as suddenly, without any public explanation. The same could happen again, taking much of the risk premium out of the market almost overnight.

For now, though, the market is pricing a real threat to physical wheat flows. And I think that’s justified.

#oatt #sizovreport #blacksea

[Bullish Trend @trend_bullish]

Got CNQ?

[Mike @MikeLongTerm]

BREAKING $AMD Dr. Su Full Interview on TBPN 🆕🚀

Source & Credit TBPN & Dr. @LisaSu

[Austin Lyons @austinsemis]

We are past the CUDA moat days.
Anthropic says Claude can bootstrap @amd Instinct + ROCm.

@NotTomBrown: "I think the thing that we were thinking about originally was whenever we're bringing up a new hardware platform, it's a big effort. It's like a huge thing. And so as we were thinking about this, we started doing our own evaluation of MI 355. You guys generously got us a rack to start working. And we expected this to be kind of a big process.

Our actual experience was we had one engineer who start doing it. They spun up Claude, asked it, hey, bring up this machine, left it going over the weekend. And we ended up with a graph of the actual performance of our leading model on it, just going up and up and up over the weekend."

[OilPrice.com @OilandEnergy]

Brazil is emerging as one of the biggest winners from Middle East supply disruptions. Record oil output of 4.5 million bpd and rising Asian demand for its high-quality crude are strengthening its path to becoming a top-five global oil producer. #Oil #Brazil #Energy #CrudeOil

https://t.co/6Pz8iH24HP

[キオ君＠IR資料をアホかわいく要約します @kiokunir]

【朗報】ディスコ兄貴、生成AI特需でHBM向け高付加価値マシンと消耗品をセットで売りさばき、為替ボーナスも乗っかって営業利益を4割増しに爆上げさせた件ｗｗ

ディスコ（6146）の長い決算短信を要約すると、
・売上1143億円！+27.1％、「生成AIブームでデータセンタ投資止まらん」状態
・営業利益490億円！+42.2％、「高い機械が飛ぶように売れてるだお」アピール成功
・純利益342億円！+44.0％、純利益率ほぼ30％とかいうバグレベルの強さ
・出荷額も1359億円で前年比+22.3％、「お客さんの稼働率高すぎてツール（消耗品）も無限に出る」メシウマ案件

【小まとめ】
先端半導体ブームにフルスロットルで乗り、高付加価値製品と消耗品の最強コンボで現金を錬成し続けるゴリラ企業

【つづき】
・HBM（高帯域幅メモリ）など高性能半導体の需要がエグくて、精密加工装置の検収がガンガン進んだ結果の爆益
・為替の追い風と高い製品が売れたおかげでGP（粗利）率が急上昇、人件費や研究開発費の増加を余裕でフルボッコにして増益達成
・資産は7511億円に増加、棚卸資産（在庫）増やして次の出荷に向けた全裸待機中
・契約負債（前受金など）が729億円に増大、「受注溜まりすぎてさっさと作れ（ ﾟДﾟ）ゴルァ！」と言われてるの丸わかり
・半導体業界は需要が激しく動く界隈だから「先の予想は1四半期分しか出さない」という独自の様式美を貫徹
・それでも精査して発表した中間期（4-9月）売上予想は2428億円（+24.8％増）でキタコレ、「まだまだこの祭りは終わらんぞ」とドヤ顔
・中間期の営業利益予想も1049億円（+33.0％）、「半年で1000億稼ぎます」とか控えめに言って神
・未定だった中間配当もしっかり171円出す予定、「儲かった分はちゃんと還元してクレメンス」という声に神対応
・7-9月の想定為替レートを1ドル159円に設定、「これワンチャン上振れあるで」と期待させるニキ

【総まとめ】
AIとHBMのバブル波を一番高いところで乗りこなし、高い機械を売った後も消耗品で永遠に課金させる沼ビジネスで爆益を継続。先の見えない業界と言いつつ、中間予想でもゴリゴリの増収増益を叩きつける無双状態。

【結論】「生成AIのゴールドラッシュでツルハシを売りまくり、利益率のバグを起こしながら次の中間期も余裕で勝つ気満々の最強半導体製造装置屋」です。

[🇨🇳XuZhenqing徐祯卿 @XueJia24682]

✨🇨🇳 These are next-generation smart blackboards in classrooms across China.

While the US debates how to address homelessness, China channels public resources into education — investing in the next generation instead of wars.

When tax money flows to people and their future, it lays the groundwork for long-term progress.

[官報ブログ @kanpo_blog]

オービック 2027年3月期第1四半期決算
https://t.co/dp0Cs9U1Af

営業利益率 67.7%。凄すぎる

売上高：366億9800万円（前年同期比+13.2%）
営業利益：248億6000万円（同+15.7%）
経常利益：320億4900万円（同+17.7%）
純利益：226億9700万円（同+16.3%）