I just finished watching a documentary about a band that was popular when I was a kid. If I told you who the group was, you would recognize them immediately. But I suppose naming them is pointless. It’s the same story after all. A love for music, a quest for fame and glory, hedonistic indulgence along the way, unhappiness and depression in spite of fame and fortune. The lead singer has been dead for several years now.
As the film finished, this is the word that stirred in my heart:
“All flesh is grass, and all its loveliness is like the flower of the field
The grass withers, the flower fades,
When the breath of the LORD blows upon it;
Surely the people are grass.
The grass withers, the flower fades,
But the word of our God stands forever.”
-Isaiah 40:6-8
All human glory is like that fading flower. Yes, beautiful in its own time and way, but also very fleeting. Very transient. Soon to be replaced by another. And then another. And then another. And all the replacements—no matter how beautiful—are just as fleeting. And just as forgotten.
Our lives go by us in a flash. Our time is so short. And yet, still our hearts long for a fading glory—a glory that will be forgotten and unknown infinitely longer than it was known or acknowledged by anyone.
“No one remembers the former generations, and even those yet to come will not be remembered by those who follow them.”
-Ecclesiastes 1:11
It is a rare thing in the world to be remembered. Out of the ocean of humanity, only a precious few have their names recorded in history books. Most of us will live and die and be forgotten within a generation or two. The pop stars and movie stars of our time will be just as forgotten and unremembered as the rest of us. How many film stars can you name from a hundred years ago?
This is the vanity that the Preacher laments in Ecclesiastes, but it is a truth that is absolutely crucial for us to grasp if we wish to understand our place in the order of things. God did not make us for vanity. He made us for an unfading glory that cannot be taken away (1 Peter 1:4).
The great folly of our race consists in our persistent casting aside of the permanent things for the transient things. The constant quest for the food that spoils instead of the food that endures to eternal life (John 6:27). The hoarding of moth-eaten, corruptible treasures rather than storing up heavenly ones (Matthew 6:19-20). The tragedy of our lives is that we spend so much time fixated on the fading glory rather than pursuing the unfading one.
There really is nothing new under the sun. What has been done has been done before and will be done again. This is the way of things in this fallen world of sinners. Apart from grace, we don’t learn. We walk in the sins of our ancestors.
But it doesn’t have to be that way. It doesn’t have to be that way at all.
“Ho! Every one who thirsts, come to the waters;
And you who have no money come, buy and eat.
Come, buy wine and milk
Without money and without cost.
Why do you spend money for what is not bread,
And your wages for what does not satisfy?
Listen carefully to Me, and eat what is good,
And delight yourself in abundance.
Incline your ear and come to Me.
Listen, that you may live;
And I will make an everlasting covenant with you,
According to the faithful mercies shown to David.”
-Isaiah 55:1-3
https://t.co/jf8GE7qTOx
"beware of people who won’t do a good deed until they have calculated the long-term consequences and expected desired results in return. Maybe you can do a business deal with them (or maybe not), but never get into a close personal relationship with them"https://t.co/Dpx0kzPQDb
I love this video
Kid finds out on Christmas morning that his foster family is adopting him
I'm always in awe of the families that adopt. It's one of the most inspiring and selfless acts a person can make.
Put aside all of the daily gripes and divisions in our society (for example: 'the news') and remember what's actually important:
Every kid deserves a home. Every kid deserves a clean bed and warm meals made with love. And the parents who are willing to give them that are heroes.
In 2009, Stanford business professor Tina Seelig split her class into groups and issued a challenge:
Each group had $5 and 2 hours to make the highest return on the initial money.
At the end, they'd give a short presentation on their strategy.
The results were fascinating...
Most of the groups followed a basic approach:
• Use the $5 to buy a few items.
• Barter or resell those items.
• Repeat
• Sell final items for (hopefully) more than $5.
These groups made a modest return on their initial $5.
A few groups ignored the $5.
They thought up ways to make the most money in the 2 hours of allotted time:
• Made and sold reservations at hot restaurants.
• Refilled bike tires on campus for $1 each.
These groups made a better return on their initial $5.
The winning group took an entirely different approach.
They had three core realizations:
1. The $5 was nothing more than a distraction.
2. The 2 hours of time was not enough to make an attractive, outsized return with a mini-business (like selling restaurant reservations or filling bike tires).
3. The most valuable "asset" was actually the presentation time in front of a class of Stanford students.
Realizing the value of this hidden asset, they offered the presentation time to companies looking to recruit Stanford students.
They struck a deal to sell the time slot for $650, netting a monstrous return on the $5 of initial capital.
The losing groups thought in linear, logical terms and achieved a linear, logical outcome.
The winning group thought differently.
So, what can we learn from this story?
There are two types of problems:
1. Low-Stakes: Lower potential, linear rewards. Decisions are easily reversible.
2. High-Stakes: Higher potential, asymmetric rewards. Decisions are not easily reversible.
With low-stakes problems, given the reward potential is low and the decisions are easily reversible, we can use shortcuts and heuristics to choose our path. We can take a logical, linear approach.
With high-stakes problems, the high, asymmetric reward potential means we need to think differently. We want to take a creative, non-linear approach.
Three steps to start thinking differently:
Step 1: Avoid the Distraction
There will always be an "obvious" solution that is simple, clear, and entirely wrong.
In the challenge, the $5 was nothing more than a distraction. It was a trap.
To find the best path, you have to avoid the distraction.
Step 2: Ask Foundational Questions
Ask and answer questions that expose and vet underlying assumptions and logic.
• What's the real problem you are trying to solve?
• What's your hypothesis? Why?
• What are your core assumptions? Why?
• What evidence do you have?
• What are your core options?
• What alternatives exist?
This takes time, but it's an essential exercise when facing a problem with the potential for non-linear rewards.
Step 3: Select the High Leverage Approach
Slow down and evaluate the options on the table.
Select the path most likely to generate the asymmetric, attractive risk-adjusted returns.
If the story teaches us one thing, it's this:
Creative, non-linear, asymmetric thinking generates creative, non-linear, asymmetric outcomes.
If you enjoyed this or learned something, follow me @SahilBloom for more in future.
Almost all modern people educated by media and public schools suffer from a pathological inability to distinguish valid generalizations from anecdotal outliers. It is a hard-wired, preprogrammed block in their minds.
Saw Pat McKee hit this diving ankle pick off an underhook at 2022 NCAA's, and now seeing a Mongolian doing the same thing at 2022 Worlds. Head comes inside & pushes opp's tricep in, fall to hip, underhook hand finds opp's ankle, secure the secondary leg. @NCAAWrestling@wrestling