Prediction: In the AI age, taste will become even more important. When anyone can make anything, the big differentiator is what you choose to make.
https://t.co/3GQUlfH58t
The coming years are going to be insane. I say this figuratively and literally. The primary reason is because society is about to enter a phase transition. This is what a phase transition looks like.
Water at 99°C is hot, stable, behaves like a liquid and follows the laws of hydrodynamics. At 101°C, water becomes a gas, making it chaotic, expansive, and following a different set of physical laws.
The difference between 2026 and 203X is the difference between 99°C and 101°C.
To make this tangible. Imagine you’ve become a proficient swimmer. Mastering your stroke, breathing and pacing. The water is a predictable substrate that you use to model your decisions. This is life at 99°C.
At 101°C the pool turns to steam. You stroke your arms but don’t move. You kick and don’t find resistance. Your swimming proficiency is no longer an asset, it’s a liability. Your muscle memory is a mismatch for the new environment. You have to unlearn to relearn.
This is what life planning is going to feel like going forward.
For most of history, you could make a pretty decent guess about what the future would look like. If you were a farmer in 1400, you knew your grandchild would probably be a farmer in 1450. That was even true in 2003 when I entered college. One could confidently attend college, select a career, plan a profession, and map out retirement by age 65.
We felt confident in these plans because we depended on broad trends (coarse graining) that reliably predicted the future. Things may change here and there, but not enough to give you any pause in your life-planning decision making.
That stability is now gone. For example, my son is 20 and neither he nor I have any idea how to think about his life. Should he go to college? Is college still relevant? What should he learn? Life planning shortcuts are now dead. No one knows. Before, having a five year plan was responsible. Now it’s reckless because the world is moving faster than we can model. The speed of reality exceeds the speed of the observer.
This is the source of the low level anxiety that many people feel. Humans are prediction machines. When an error emerges from what you predicted (water) to what you get (steam), the body registers it as trauma. It leaves us in a state of chronic hyper-vigilance, scanning a horizon that refuses to sit still.
In this new reality, the move is not to have better maps, but to build better systems. This is what I’ve been building with Blueprint. An algorithmic system of health and decision making that moves as fast as technology, allowing me to evolve alongside. The more I detach from ideas, norms and expectations, the smoother the glide. The hardest part is letting go of what we know and trust.
This is part of a series of essays that I’ve been writing for my upcoming book Warriors & Caretakers of Existence. A plan on what the human race does when giving birth to super intelligence. If we want the extraordinary existence that is on offer, we’ll need to fight for it.
In 1984, a German correspondent in Paris shared some unconventional advice for crossing the busy Place de la Concorde: "Walk steadily across and never look at the drivers. If you do, they'll think you've seen them and won't stop."
We're so close to longevity escape velocity that I urge you to remember that your sole responsibility right now is to avoid dying from something stupid.
Here's my conversation with @leecronin, a chemist and co-author of a controversial new Nature paper on the origin and evolution of life and complexity.
First 3 hours are here on X. 3 hours is the current upload limit. The rest is up on YouTube, Spotify, and everywhere else.
Timestamps:
0:00 - Introduction
1:15 - Assembly theory paper
21:45 - Assembly equation
34:57 - Discovering alien life
53:16 - Evolution of life on Earth
1:01:12 - Response to criticism
1:18:50 - Kolmogorov complexity
1:30:40 - Nature review process
1:51:34 - Time and free will
1:57:59 - Communication with aliens
2:19:57 - Cellular automata
2:24:26 - AGI
2:41:15 - Nuclear weapons
2:47:00 - Chem Machina
2:59:54 - GPT for electron density
3:09:24 - God
Here's my conversation with @elonmusk, his 4th time on the podcast. We talk about war & peace, AI, physics, politics, video games, and the future of humanity.
This is episode 400 of the podcast. It's been an incredible journey. I'm grateful to Elon for his friendship, and I'm grateful for all the kindness and love I've gotten from folks along the way. I love you all! ❤
Timestamps:
0:00 - Introduction
0:07 - War and human nature
4:33 - Israel-Hamas war
10:41 - Military-Industrial Complex
14:58 - War in Ukraine
19:41 - China
33:57 - xAI Grok
44:55 - Aliens
52:55 - God
55:22 - Diablo 4 and video games
1:04:29 - Dystopian worlds: 1984 and Brave New World
1:10:41 - AI and useful compute per watt
1:16:22 - AI regulation
1:23:14 - Should AI be open-sourced?
1:30:36 - X algorithm
1:41:57 - 2024 presidential elections
1:54:55 - Politics
1:57:57 - Trust
2:03:29 - Tesla's Autopilot and Optimus robot
2:12:28 - Hardships
Like most of the others, I was a seeker, a mover, a malcontent, and at times a stupid hell-raiser. I was never idle long enough to do much thinking, but I felt somehow that my instincts were right. I shared a vagrant optimism that some of us were making real progress, that we had taken an honest road, and that the best of us would inevitably make it over the top. At the same time, I shared a dark suspicion that the life we were leading was a lost cause, that we were all actors, kidding ourselves along on a senseless odyssey. It was the tension between these two poles — a restless idealism on one hand and a sense of impending doom on the other — that kept me going.