James Dollinger

In Wall Street, the man who does not change his mind will soon have no change to mind - W.D. Gann

[James Dollinger @jdmce]

@vtchakarova I need to meet these people! For the life of me cannot fathom why oil isnt materially higher (other than dont fight the SPR) and understanding this pov is critical to market timing!

[James Dollinger @jdmce]

@JamesHMackay Long yes - wildly long? For my money I’m not loving the price action and am waiting for a confirmation to increase exposure

[James Dollinger @jdmce]

@darrenrovell Still $13,045 too high

[James Dollinger @jdmce]

@vtchakarova If you’re the iranian regime, what better way to demonstrate commitment to a grim reaper strategy?

[James Dollinger @jdmce]

@GavMcCracken 🎯

This is game theory 101.

In addition to punishment for defection as deterrence, Iran also needs to signal commitment to future deterrence.

Put another way - it takes two to TACO

[James Dollinger @jdmce]

@admcollingwood @WSJ Bingo

Also I’m not sure either side in this conflict actually wants to deal at the moment - as the value of demonstrating commitment for strategic deterrence may outweigh any economic benefit

[James Dollinger @jdmce]

@CRUDEOIL231 Really solid analysis!

I think you’ve also laid out the crux of the bet that oil markets are making!

[James Dollinger @jdmce]

@SecretaryWright You’re loaning bbls in to what was a $40 backwardated market… maybe I’m just dumb but I have no clue what on god’s green earth you are talking about

[James Dollinger @jdmce]

@BBCWorld Justice for @BobbyVylan

[James Dollinger @jdmce]

@HormuzLetter I may not be bullish enough oil

[James Dollinger @jdmce]

@Rory_Johnston Is this equities or short term flat price?

[James Dollinger @jdmce]

@lessin Maybe I’m misunderstanding your point, but imo the simplest(most cynical?) explanation for this is that most of the olympic athletes are already and the performance drop off from optimal protocol to whatever they do to evade the tests isnt that great

[James Dollinger @jdmce]

@Matt__Miller Terminal value man

[James Dollinger @jdmce]

@JKempEnergy FWIW I’ve been looking at combined P2+3 inventories as there cross movements between the PADDs… but I mean this is the obvious story with stocks across the world being drawn and SPR releases relieving some of the burden on commercial stocks.

This will continue until it doesnt

[James Dollinger @jdmce]

@JoshYoung 🎯

There has been some forced rationing of demand - which probably lengthens the time before inventories run out but the math is the math

[James Dollinger @jdmce]

@GregVorse

[James Dollinger @jdmce]

@aeberman12 @anasalhajji Those lines are where they are but for the grace of SPR releases - which can continue but not indefinitely.

#chickierun

[James Dollinger @jdmce]

@briangobosox Just going to send this to @OldTakesExposed now so you can’t delete it later

[James Dollinger @jdmce]

@AngelicaOung @Rory_Johnston The key dynamic that you are pointing out here is that the current equilibrium is not stable!

[James Dollinger @jdmce]

@ACapitalLP Maybe I’ve screwed up my math but this looks like 100%+ topline growth and multiple expansion to a 38% operating margin… I am unalived