For 2 years the AI race was framed as a capability gap: US labs lead, China trails 6-18 months.
Mid-2026, that's the wrong frame.
The gap that matters isn't who trains the best model β it's who supplies the tokens the world runs. China already won the open layer.
500% NDR at Anthropic is the stat of the year for meβ¦
I asked Krishna what questions he'd ask the model companies if he were an investor. His three:β¨
1) What is the ROI on compute?
2) How are customers seeing ROI? Are they deploying at scale or just testing?
3) How do you think about compute in the future, and where does it come from?
His answer to the second one:
"Our net dollar retention is over 500% on an annualized basis. Nine of the Fortune 10 are customers. [In the 20 minute Uber to this podcast], I signed two double-digit million-dollar commits."
My guest today is Paul Tudor Jones (@ptj_official), one of the greatest macro traders of all time.
He correctly predicted the 1987 stock market crash and shorted the Japanese bubble in 1990. For over 40 years, his flagship fund has had a negative correlation to the S&P 500. 100% of his returns are alpha.
He says today's market has so many similarities to 2000, "the easiest bear market I've ever seen in my whole life."
He makes the case for going long dollar-yen, why Bitcoin beats gold as an inflation hedge, and why he was wrong about Warren Buffett.
But what I'll remember most from this conversation is Paul's zest for life. He's 71 and still wakes at 2:30 every morning to trade the London open. He works out for two hours a day. He walks with his wife every evening. He travels the country chasing peak spring and peak fall. He's so excited about the songs picked for his funeral that he wishes he could be there to hear them.
Paul has lived five lifetimes in one. He's one of the most entertaining and interesting people I've met, and the conversation will leave you searching to be as passionate about what you do as he is about what he does.
Enjoy!
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
1:00 The Kindest Thing
13:19 Trading vs. Investing
17:33 Lessons from Warren Buffet
22:24 The Existential Risks of AI
29:54 The Nature of Trading
31:46 Bitcoin
35:55 Bubbles
42:08 A Day in the Life of PTJ
46:00 Information Overload
47:07 Passion for Markets
50:49 The Robin Hood Foundation
54:18 The Workless World
56:03 Journalism
1:00:00 Principal Components of a Great Life
1:05:06 Kill Them With Kindness
Roblox founder @DavidBaszucki bootstrapped his first company to a $20 million exit, then spent two years failing to find a CEO job before building Roblox in his early 40s β no revenue, no investors, pure vision. Today, Roblox has over 150 million daily users, 13 billion hours of monthly engagement, and a virtual economy worth over $40 billion.
Hereβs our conversation:
0:00 Roblox Origin Story
1:14 Sabbatical and Intuition
3:36 Founder vs CEO Mindset
5:43 Building the Clock
7:57 Lifestyle Startup Phase
8:49 First Product Failure
15:48 Buying First Users
17:43 Studio Goes Live
18:53 Roblox vs YouTube
21:59 Beyond Games Vision
25:50 Roblox Operating System
33:55 Nine Companies Inside
36:19 Safety and Monetization
41:13 Robux Economy Loop
45:19 Creator to Entrepreneur
45:49 Chasing Photoreal Concurrency
49:11 Imaginary Competitor Mindset
50:08 Capital Efficiency Playbook
52:11 Performance As Growth
55:40 Owning The Stack
58:36 Roblox Infrastructure Engine
1:02:32 Safety And AI Moat
1:06:57 Data Ethics And NPC Testing
1:11:31 Creator Earnings Explosion
1:16:08 Marketplace And Transparency
1:20:01 Near Death Lessons
1:24:43 Ads And Creator Discovery
1:25:35 Closing Reflections
Includes paid partnerships.
WHY NOBODY IS BUYING ENOUGH COMPUTE
Anthropic went from zero to 100M to 1B to 10B in three years. Clean 10x every year.
So why aren't they buying 10 trillion in compute right now?
Here's the actual problem.
Dario: "You're pretty sure AGI hits in 1-2 years. When it does you need massive compute to serve what's basically a country of geniuses in a datacenter. Trillions in revenue coming.
But datacenters take two years to build.
So if you're wrong by one year on timing you're just dead. Bankrupt. Done.
Breakthrough comes 2028 instead of 2027? Dead.
Economy takes 3 years to adopt instead of 1? Dead.
No hedge exists for a trillion dollar mistimed bet.
So everyone's in this insane spot where they KNOW what's coming but literally cannot bet their full stack on it.
Buy hundreds of billions not trillions.
Accept you might not have enough when it hits.
Wild part - being 12 months early or late on the biggest prediction ever means you don't exist to find out if you were right."
Here are all the highlights from the recent interview of @DarioAmodei with @dwarkesh_sp
@OGDfarmer@Zagabond@AzukiTCG Can't agree more with this. I love @Azuki since day 1 and I think above suggestions should definitely be considered. Membership utility is still a must in one form or another for NFT. @Zagabond π
Spatial Intelligence β the ability to perceive, reason about, interact with, and generate spatially coherent worlds β is the next crucial frontier for AI to watch π₯@drfeifei@theworldlabs
.@drfeifei: βSpatial Intelligence is the scaffolding upon which our cognition is built.β
Spatial intelligence is a ripe frontier for expanding what we can do with AI.
Full piece from @theworldlabs CEO Dr. Fei-Fei Li, godmother of AI, on why spatial intelligence is her North Star: https://t.co/1JdLuwSrZi
@OGDfarmer It's amazing to see your support for @BoredApeYC with conviction and still provide both positive and constructive feedback to the project since day 1. Feel blessed to have you in the ape community. Keep doing what you are doing ser. Respect π¦§