johnayersc

investor, grass fed beef farmer and full time dad

[johnayersc @johnayersc]

Genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine percent perspiration."
— Thomas Edison 

this explains AGI, because AI models greatest stregenth is perseverance and 24/7 work. even Edison slept a few hours a night when he was at his most productive.

[johnayersc @johnayersc]

the historical capex booms that failed spectacularly (railroads, Dotcom/telecom/shale) were fueled by debt and ipo dollars way before they had real revenue/gross margin/cash flow. of course, long term they were great investments. what is different this time is that the frontier model companies and hyperscalers are funding the ai Capex boom from cash flow with some debt and gushing revenue. the bubble flush happens when there is a revenue lag between buildout and revenue.

[johnayersc @johnayersc]

@GardinerIsland Or seller paper

[johnayersc @johnayersc]

@EdWhelanEPPC There will be one dissent

[johnayersc @johnayersc]

I remember the QCOM 1999 rise well. One thing to note as a difference is how much of many of the exponential rises were driven by almost pure multiple expansion (QCOM and MSTR come to mind) versus earnings plus multiple expansion. SNDK definitely in the latter camp. The exponential rise in earnings coupled with a re-rating from a commodity market multiple based on short-term purchase agreements to a more stable long term grower based on long term purchase agreements argues for a differential analysis.

[johnayersc @johnayersc]

@GardinerIsland Doesn’t that expose you to income taxes in nyc and state? Would be way more expensive than the proposed extra property tax no?.

[johnayersc @johnayersc]

@dharmesh @bhalligan @travisk @HubSpot

[johnayersc @johnayersc]

@GardinerIsland @bonchieredstate a little unevenly, ‘cause only one arm

[johnayersc @johnayersc]

@Crime_In_NYC this is why costco requires you to be a member

[johnayersc @johnayersc]

@datingbyblaine Disagree with the predicate and the solution

[johnayersc @johnayersc]

@JesusFerna7026 yeah the ultimate hedge is retirement age, if markets are bad keep working. given that 2-3 years usually sees you through to the other side it’s not too much to ask. real estate is another good hedge. if holding in a good market, steady cash and no real terminal value risk.

[johnayersc @johnayersc]

@ianmiles true but how many will take advantage?

[johnayersc @johnayersc]

@TheValueist thanks, have some speculative leaps in poet

[johnayersc @johnayersc]

@NickTimiraos @darioperkins people jumping off their keyboards (iphone was too nascent)

[johnayersc @johnayersc]

@ecommerceshares throw in crypto

[johnayersc @johnayersc]

@patrick_oshag office workers

[johnayersc @johnayersc]

@dee_bosa $hubs real moat is smb installed base. very hard to reach. no it staff, no interest in taking this on.

[johnayersc @johnayersc]

@KevRGordon Like everything, it is all about entry price…stocks, PE, housing.

[johnayersc @johnayersc]

@raqisright @itsfreddypage I believe the proper term is fag, look up the original meaning

[johnayersc @johnayersc]

@R_and_Invest @NotebookLM @GavinSBaker Love it