Some traders are going to be very unhappy here, whatever happens. Kalshi should be listing all four event outcomes. Offering no draw contract is crazy!
Kalshi with the most mispriced event contract I’ve ever seen. In test match cricket, four outcomes are possible: win, loss, draw and tie. Draw≠tie. Win, loss and draw are all typically >10% likely. Tie is almost always <0.01%, but is priced at 20% here.
https://t.co/1tDV0QoB0D
@nikitabier How do you net out negative even if we accept the assumption that money is worth half after 40? This assumption surely still holds regardless of what state you live in and age isn’t specified so none of this makes sense.