Julian Okuyiga

arrakis

[Julian Okuyiga @jokuyiga]

@akarlin @mattyglesias When do you predict the regime will collapse? December? March?

[Julian Okuyiga @jokuyiga]

@Big_Orrin Why not cap exports ~1mbpd then in place of a complete ban?

[Julian Okuyiga @jokuyiga]

@Babs726 @united Go off 🗣️

[Julian Okuyiga @jokuyiga]

@davidgobaud @brookeleblanc why are you using 2.5% when the 30yr is yielding 5.3%

[Julian Okuyiga @jokuyiga]

@SuccessInThe80s @BrizArisen the game has a time machine but it only works 1 year back

[Julian Okuyiga @jokuyiga]

@kane @garrytan @sfgov @sfbos What % of current supervisors voted to appoint him?

[Julian Okuyiga @jokuyiga]

There will be a consumer class action against target. They'll return maybe half of what they got back from the gov to consumers and 40% of that will get eaten by class action lawyers. Pretty bad outcome for everyone involved. I'd advise the government against applying unconstitutional taxes in the future so this can be avoided.

[Julian Okuyiga @jokuyiga]

@AlexCorrino For balance-sheet policy to substitute meaningfully for rate hikes, he would need the FOMC to accept far more runoff and duration transfer than it currently appears comfortable with. Seems unlikely to work so makes me think it’s not his plan.

[Julian Okuyiga @jokuyiga]

@farrmacro @briangobosox He clearly does not want to escalate. With hindsight, I’m sure he’d love to return to the pre-March status quo. But imo there are still scenarios where he feels like escalation is the best among a set of bad options.

[Julian Okuyiga @jokuyiga]

@briangobosox @farrmacro Yep, and that’s one of many reasons it’s hard for Trump to just walk away

[Julian Okuyiga @jokuyiga]

@farrmacro @briangobosox Does malaysia pay it or do American allies (Saudi, UAE) pay it?

[Julian Okuyiga @jokuyiga]

@LVision_Trading 🙏

[Julian Okuyiga @jokuyiga]

@robin_j_brooks @JavierBlas What happens after may?

[Julian Okuyiga @jokuyiga]

@SpectrumCow @Ke14Go @MarkAmesExiled @DanMKervick China has the only remaining spare refining capacity in the world. They could buy oil for $80/bbl and use some of that spare capacity to turn it into $140/bbl gas or diesel for export. Why aren’t they doing this?

[Julian Okuyiga @jokuyiga]

@ChristianHudmgt @realEstateTrent How did your CRE property values do in 2022??

[Julian Okuyiga @jokuyiga]

@SCapStrategist Did you expect him to say that they are going to make a deal work no matter the cost?

[Julian Okuyiga @jokuyiga]

@SigEStructure @MBazilian Have you seen anyone saying 300 that is not just parroting Amos?

[Julian Okuyiga @jokuyiga]

@SigEStructure @MBazilian Did you even bother to skim the paper you linked or do you just dump things into ChatGPT and completely outsource your thinking?