Jonathon Friginal

[JonnyTakesNFL @dnvrburnbook]

The Year 3 Wide Receiver Breakout Is Real—These Are My Three Bets for 2026 https://t.co/EEAaq2iNOT

[JonnyTakesNFL @dnvrburnbook]

Four NFL Playoff Teams That Will Fall Out in 2026—and the Four That Will Replace Them

NFL parity is not just a talking point. It is one of the league’s most consistent statistical trends.

In every season since 1990, at least four teams have reached the playoffs after missing them the previous year. That streak has now lasted 36 consecutive seasons, from 1990 through 2025. With 14 playoff spots available, predicting significant turnover is not especially bold. The more difficult question is identifying where that turnover will come from.

My approach is relatively simple. I am looking for teams whose 2025 records were stronger than their underlying performance, whether measured by point differential or expected wins. I am also accounting for quarterback play, schedule changes, roster age, injury concentration and offseason additions.

Expected record is not a perfect forecasting tool, but it provides a useful reality check. When a team’s actual record substantially outperforms its point-differential-based expectation, it often has less margin for error the following season.

Four 2025 Playoff Teams I Expect to Miss
1. Carolina Panthers

2025 record: 8–9, NFC South champions
My 2026 projection: 8–9, misses playoffs

Carolina’s division title was a great story, but it was not an especially convincing foundation for sustained success. The Panthers won the NFC South at 8–9 after Carolina, Tampa Bay and Atlanta all finished with identical records. More importantly, the Panthers were outscored by 69 points, scored only 18.3 points per game—27th in the NFL—and had the statistical profile of a six- or seven-win team rather than a playoff team.
The central question is still Bryce Young. Young’s final numbers—3,011 passing yards, 23 touchdowns, 11 interceptions and an 87.8 passer rating—were respectable, but his efficiency remained below the level Carolina needs. He averaged only 6.3 yards per attempt, posted a 47.6 QBR and finished 26th among 43 quarterbacks in PFF’s overall grading. That does not mean Young cannot improve. It means that merely repeating his 2025 production probably will not be enough. He needs to make a legitimate jump from a bottom-third starter to an above-average one.
Carolina’s defense has improved, and that should prevent the team from completely bottoming out. But the offense does not currently provide enough margin to overcome a more difficult schedule. Based on 2025 opponent records, the Panthers have the 10th-hardest schedule in 2026, while New Orleans has the second-easiest. In a division that was decided at 8–9 last season, that difference matters.

I am not projecting a collapse. I am projecting stagnation. Carolina can play approximately as well as it did last year and still lose the division.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers

2025 record: 10–7, AFC North champions
My 2026 projection: 8–9, misses playoffs

The Steelers were not a bad team last season. They were a thoroughly average team that won the right games.

Pittsburgh finished 10–7 despite outscoring opponents by only 10 points. The Steelers ranked 15th in scoring offense and 17th in scoring defense, and their expected record was closer to 9–8 than 10–7. Their playoff loss—a 30–6 defeat against Houston—also illustrated how limited the team could look when forced to play from behind against a high-level defense.

Aaron Rodgers was efficient enough in 2025, completing 65.7% of his passes with 24 touchdowns, seven interceptions and a 94.8 passer rating. But his 6.7 yards per attempt reflected an offense built more around avoiding mistakes than generating explosive production. PFF graded him 29th among 43 quarterbacks overall and 22nd as a passer. At 42, Rodgers may still be capable of competent football, but it is difficult to project a major late-career increase in his ceiling.
The bigger change is the absence of Mike Tomlin. Calling Tomlin’s influence “dark magic” was funny, but there was a measurable reality behind it: he went 19 seasons without a losing record and repeatedly kept flawed Pittsburgh rosters competitive. That kind of organizational floor is difficult to replace immediately.
Pittsburgh also benefited from Baltimore and Cincinnati having disastrous seasons. The Ravens went 8–9 despite a positive point differential, while Joe Burrow appeared in only eight games for the Bengals. Both division rivals also have easier projected schedules in 2026: Cincinnati has the third-easiest, Baltimore the ninth-easiest and Pittsburgh sits near the middle of the league.
The Steelers can remain respectable and still fall from first to third in the AFC North.

3. San Francisco 49ers

2025 record: 12–5
My 2026 projection: 9–8, misses playoffs

This is not a bet against Kyle Shanahan. He remains one of the league’s best offensive play-callers, and San Francisco again finished in the top 10 in scoring last season. As long as Shanahan and Brock Purdy are together, the 49ers should have a functional—and probably good—offense.

The concern is that an unusual amount of San Francisco’s championship ceiling is tied to older players, extreme workloads and players returning from major injuries.

Christian McCaffrey accumulated a franchise-record 413 touches last season: 311 carries and 102 receptions. He produced 2,126 yards from scrimmage and 17 total touchdowns, which was extraordinary. It was also an enormous workload for a running back entering his age-30 season with a substantial injury history. The issue is not that McCaffrey is suddenly incapable of playing at an elite level; it is that projecting another 400-touch season without any physical decline is overly optimistic.

The existing injury list makes the situation more precarious. Nick Bosa is returning from a torn ACL and is currently managing tendinitis connected to that recovery. George Kittle is attempting to return from a January Achilles tear. Ricky Pearsall will miss the entire season following knee surgery. San Francisco is also counting on a rebound from Mike Evans, who was limited to eight games, 30 receptions and 368 yards in 2025.

Any one of those risks would be manageable. The concern is their correlation. The 49ers need multiple cornerstone players to return successfully while also asking their veteran offensive stars to maintain unusually heavy workloads.

The division offers almost no room for slippage. Seattle went 14–3 and won the Super Bowl last season, while the Rams also finished 12–5. San Francisco’s 12 wins slightly exceeded its point-differential-based expectation, so even a modest decline could move the 49ers from contender to the middle of a crowded NFC wild-card race.
I still expect the 49ers to be competitive. I simply do not trust them to be healthy or deep enough to survive the NFC West and secure another postseason berth.

4. New England Patriots
2025 record: 14–3, AFC champions
My 2026 projection: 10–7, first team out

This is easily my least confident omission because the Patriots were legitimately excellent last season. They did not accidentally go 14–3. New England ranked second in scoring offense, fourth in scoring defense and outscored its opponents by 170 points. Even its expected record was better than 12–5.

Drake Maye has also fully arrived. He completed 72% of his passes for 4,394 yards, 31 touchdowns and eight interceptions, leading the NFL with a 77.1 QBR and producing a 113.5 passer rating. New England then added A.J. Brown, who surpassed 1,000 yards in 2025, and Romeo Doubs, who contributed 724 yards and six touchdowns. There is no credible argument that the Patriots lack quarterback play or receiving talent.

The regression case begins with the schedule. Pro Football Reference rated New England’s 2025 schedule as the league’s easiest. Based on opponents’ 2025 records, the Patriots now face the sixth-hardest schedule in 2026. Strength of schedule is never perfectly predictive, but a swing that large makes another 14-win season highly unlikely.

The offensive line is the other concern—specifically pass protection at tackle. New England averaged only 16.8 points across its four postseason games, and Maye was sacked 21 times. In the Super Bowl, left tackle Will Campbell surrendered 14 pressures, the most allowed by any player in a game during the 2025 season. The Patriots improved the interior by adding Alijah Vera-Tucker, but their playoff run showed what can happen when the offense faces elite defensive fronts and Maye does not have time to access the deeper portions of the passing game.

I am not predicting that New England becomes a bad team. I am predicting that the difference between a 14-win schedule and a 10-win schedule, combined with an unusually competitive AFC, pushes an otherwise good Patriots team just outside the field.

Four 2025 Non-Playoff Teams I Expect to Make It

1. Baltimore Ravens

2025 record: 8–9
My 2026 projection: 12–5, wins AFC North

The argument for Baltimore should be more substantial than “Lamar Jackson is too good to miss the playoffs twice.” The stronger argument is that the Ravens were already better than their 8–9 record suggested.
Baltimore finished with a positive point differential and an expected record above .500 despite Jackson starting only 13 games and playing approximately 69% of the team’s offensive snaps. The Ravens’ 2025 season was not a normal representation of what they look like with a healthy Jackson.
We saw Jackson’s current ceiling one year earlier, when he became the first quarterback in NFL history to combine 4,000 passing yards with 800 rushing yards in a season. He finished 2024 with 4,172 passing yards, 41 passing touchdowns, four interceptions and 915 rushing yards. Expecting him to repeat those exact numbers would be unreasonable, but they demonstrate why Baltimore’s offensive upside remains significantly higher than Pittsburgh’s.
The Jesse Minter hire is just as important. In his first season coordinating the Chargers’ defense, Minter’s unit finished first in points allowed, fifth in defensive EPA per play and ninth in DVOA. He now takes over a Baltimore roster with more defensive talent than its 2025 ranking indicated.

Declan Doyle is an intriguing offensive coordinator, although it would be premature to treat him as a proven elite play-caller. The foundation of this prediction is not blind faith in Doyle. It is Jackson’s established ceiling, Baltimore’s positive underlying performance and a schedule that ranks as the ninth-easiest based on last year’s records.

With better health and a defensive system that should fit the roster, Baltimore is my pick to go from third place to first in the AFC North.

2. New Orleans Saints

2025 record: 6–11
My 2026 projection: 9–8, wins NFC South

Someone has to win the NFC South, and New Orleans has a more convincing path to improvement than any other team in the division.

The Saints’ overall record obscured how well Brandon Staley’s defense played. New Orleans finished ninth in yards allowed, fourth in passing yards allowed, third in third-down defense and 10th in red-zone touchdown rate. By EPA per play, the defense improved from 26th in 2024 to 10th in 2025, making it one of the league’s most improved units.
The late-season results supported those underlying numbers. New Orleans went 5–3 over its final eight games while allowing only 17.5 points per game. Chase Young produced 10 sacks, Cameron Jordan had 10.5, and Kool-Aid McKinstry recorded three interceptions and 17 passes defensed. This does not need to become the NFL’s best defense. It merely needs to remain in the top 10 or 12.

The offense is the obvious question, but Tyler Shough gave New Orleans legitimate reasons for optimism. As a rookie, he completed 67.6% of his passes, averaged 7.3 yards per attempt and finished with a 91.3 passer rating. He also became the first rookie since C.J. Stroud to produce consecutive 300-yard passing games. Those are not superstar numbers, but they are credible building blocks for a second-year quarterback.
The supporting cast is also better. Chris Olave is coming off a 1,163-yard season. Travis Etienne arrives after producing 1,399 scrimmage yards and 13 touchdowns, and first-round receiver Jordyn Tyson gives the offense another potential difference-maker.
New Orleans had the 28th-ranked scoring offense last year, so substantial improvement is still required. But the Saints do not need Shough to become an MVP candidate. If the offense can simply approach league average while the defense remains in the top 10, nine wins is attainable—especially with the league’s second-easiest projected schedule.

3. Cincinnati Bengals

2025 record: 6–11
My 2026 projection: 10–7, wild-card berth

Cincinnati’s case is straightforward: the Bengals already produced an above-average offense during a season in which Joe Burrow played only eight games.

Despite rotating between Burrow, Joe Flacco and Jake Browning, Cincinnati averaged 24.4 points per game, 12th in the NFL. In his limited action, Burrow threw 17 touchdowns against five interceptions and recorded a 100.7 passer rating. Ja’Marr Chase still finished with 1,412 receiving yards, while Tee Higgins added 846. With a healthy Burrow, that group has an obvious top-five offensive ceiling.

The defense was the problem, although it is more accurate to call it the 30th-ranked scoring defense rather than the worst defense in the league. Cincinnati surrendered 28.9 points per game and allowed 492 total points. The Bengals do not need that unit to become elite. They need it to move from the bottom three toward the low 20s.

The acquisition of Dexter Lawrence gives the defensive front a proven interior anchor. Lawrence alone will not repair every level of the defense, but his ability to disrupt the pocket should improve the conditions for the pass rushers and secondary around him.

Cincinnati also owns the third-easiest projected schedule in the league. The combination of a healthier Burrow, an elite receiving duo, a major defensive-line addition and a favorable schedule gives the Bengals several independent paths to improvement.

This team does not need a defensive transformation to reach 10 wins. It needs an ordinary defense paired with an extraordinary quarterback.

4. Dallas Cowboys
My 2026 projection: 11–6, wild-card berth

The Cowboys may be the cleanest positive-regression candidate in the league because their problem was so obvious—and so concentrated on one side of the ball.
Dallas scored 27.7 points per game, seventh in the NFL, but surrendered 30.1 per game, dead last. The Cowboys allowed 511 total points, the sixth-highest total in league history. It is extremely difficult to waste a top-seven offense more thoroughly than Dallas did.

The offensive foundation remains excellent. Dak Prescott threw for 4,552 yards, George Pickens produced 1,429 receiving yards and CeeDee Lamb added 1,077. Brian Schottenheimer’s first season showed that he can build an efficient, explosive offense around Prescott and arguably the league’s best receiving tandem.

Dallas therefore does not need to create an entirely new identity. It needs to prevent its defense from sabotaging that offense.

The personnel investment has been significant. The Cowboys added safety Caleb Downs with the 11th pick, acquired pass rusher Rashan Gary, signed veteran safety Jalen Thompson and added linebacker Dee Winters after his 101-tackle season. Quinnen Williams also gives Dallas a centerpiece on the interior of the defensive line.

There is no guarantee those additions immediately create a top-10 unit. Fortunately, that is not the standard Dallas must meet. A rise from 32nd to merely competent could produce a dramatic change in the standings because the Cowboys already possess enough offense to win high-level games.

Dallas also has the league’s 20th-hardest projected schedule, meaning the path is more manageable than the schedules facing several NFC competitors.

I considered Detroit for this final spot, but Dallas has the better combination of quarterback play, receiving talent and obvious room for defensive improvement. The Cowboys’ 2025 imbalance was unsustainable. In 2026, I expect it to become merely imperfect—and that should be enough for 11 wins.

Final Playoff Turnover Prediction

My four projected swaps are:
Panthers out, Saints in.
Steelers out, Ravens in.
Patriots out, Bengals in.
49ers out, Cowboys in.
The common thread is not that every returning playoff team suddenly becomes bad. New England and San Francisco could remain objectively good teams. The prediction is that their schedules, injury risks and competitive environments leave them with less margin than they had last year.
Conversely, Baltimore, Cincinnati, New Orleans and Dallas do not require everything to go perfectly. Baltimore and Cincinnati primarily need better quarterback availability. New Orleans needs an average offense to complement an already strong defense. Dallas needs its defense to progress from historically bad to merely acceptable.

In a league built to create annual turnover, those are the four exchanges I believe are most likely to define the 2026 playoff field.

[MrBeast @MrBeast]

I’m gonna give 10 random people that repost this and follow me $25,000 for fun (the $250,000 my X video made)

I’ll pick the winners in 72 hours

[PFT Commenter @PFTCommenter]

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[Michael Porter Jumpshot @NuggetWatcher]

Denver version of the Knicks video

[Warren Sharp @SharpFootball]

most people assume the game CIN-BUF will not be resumed at a later date

let's discuss both options, resumed or canceled

if is canceled:

standings are calculated on win % (as usual)

current AFC Standings and win %:

0.812 - KC (13-3)
0.800 - BUF (12-3)
0.733 - CIN (11-4)

[Jonathon Friginal @jonny_fridge]

Anyone who doesn’t say Broncos vs Colts week 5 is crazy

[FOX Sports: NFL @NFLonFOX]

Best TNF game of the season was ____.

[Jonathon Friginal @jonny_fridge]

Can we veto the Russ trade?

[Nora Princiotti @NoraPrinciotti]

🚨BRONCOS SCORED FROM THE RED ZONE🚨

[The Volume @TheVolumeSports]

No one:

Mike Evans:

[AB @AB84]

Sincerely AB

[Jonathon Friginal @jonny_fridge]

@WildemanPiper @Kvig118 carried @WildemanPiper the entire week.

[Big Cat @BarstoolBigCat]

Thoughts and prayers to Derrick Henry Fantasy owners this morning. 🙏

[Jonathon Friginal @jonny_fridge]

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[Jonathon Friginal @jonny_fridge]

@NBAonTNT @KyrieIrving Uncle Drew

[B/R Gridiron @brgridiron]

Deshaun Watson is reportedly “intrigued” by being traded to the 49ers or Broncos, per @JFowlerESPN

[Rodger Sherman @rodger]

Mahomes has thrown the 7 best incomplete passes in NFL history tonight

[Warren Sharp @SharpFootball]

these predictable & frustrating Bucs 1st down runs average -0.11 EPA/att & often force Tampa into 3rd downs

so I'm RUNNING this contest

for every Bucs 1st down RB handoff on Sunday I'll add $100 to the pot & give it all away

rules:
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[Buffalo Wild Wings @BWWings]

Everyone who retweets this gets free wings if the game goes to overtime.