Josh Lerner

Data Scientist, @NORCNews
Ph.D @DukePoliSci
UChicago class of 2012
American politics, NLP and Causal Inference
עם ישראל חי

[Josh Lerner @josh_lerner]

@AlexNowrasteh @cremieuxrecueil but then basically you can't believe anything outside of RCTs -- assumptions needed for estimators to be true are always vast and need lots of tests built in. Which, for the record, is a find perspective to have but then we just can't know things about most questions.

[Josh Lerner @josh_lerner]

@AlexNowrasteh DiD methods papers are all good. People should try having better designs.

[Josh Lerner @josh_lerner]

@PrazMaster Yeah, that was a real battle, and even better walking off against Mason Miller of all people.

[Josh Lerner @josh_lerner]

@bleacherbum099 Seiya 145 is amazing

[Nicholas Decker @captgouda24]

Something I really like about America is how uncomfortable we are about servants. People who do services do not *serve you*. They *do tasks*. They are a professional, working independently, and below nobody. This is not common around the world, and is to America’s credit.

[StartKyleOrton @startkyIeorton]

Morning! Broke my long summer break to write about Bryce Young.
https://t.co/FmLGrgUZ7e

[Ilan @ilannfl18]

11s back for the 1s from the 46 yard line:
• -3 yard wide zone for Swift, Kiran blown up
• Caleb steps up into the pocket and delivers a strike to Rome with elite anticipation for 25 yards
• Caleb checks into a naked and hits Kmet wide open as he releases for 7 yards
• Caleb throws a perfect pass on a sail route caught by Colston Loveland for 25 yards
• Ahmed inside zone for 4 yards

Incredibly impressive period for Caleb

[Jesse Crosson @jcrohsaine]

As a rule, I rarely share political opinions on here. Ironically, I will share one now, but in service of the underlying principle: this is a bad decision, and it could not be more poorly timed.

[Jason Roberts @ProfJRoberts]

This could not be more tone deaf. What an embarrassment.

[Josh Kalla @j_kalla]

I am not an AAUP member, but I think it is a really bad idea for the American Association of University Professors to be endorsing candidates, especially in a factional Democratic primary.

[Chicago Bears @ChicagoBears]

.@CALEBcsw launched it 🚀

[Josh Lerner @josh_lerner]

@RossRead Ugh, you're making me miss Hyde Park. I love Valois and the Med -- Salonica was probably my choice for late breakfast/lunch most weekends. Virtue was after my time, but it looks amazing

[chris oldman © @AlsikkanTV]

Toy Story 5 wasn’t made for kids man what is this

[joseph francis @joefrancis505]

Another issue with the moral panic about AI-hallucinated references is that I routinely see human academics cite real references even though they say the exact opposite of the point being made. This is just as bad: they have found a real reference, then hallucinated the contents.

[Josh Lerner @josh_lerner]

@SashaGusevPosts @JaneParkway @tracewoodgrains Fascinating. What a mess -- this is actually the kind of difficult causal problem I find the most exciting, because you can see how small variations in assumptions can drive differences in results. Any studies you think are particularly well done?

[Josh Lerner @josh_lerner]

@SashaGusevPosts @JaneParkway @tracewoodgrains The moving argument I find persuasive -- I didn't realize that this was G&T programs that required relocation

[Josh Lerner @josh_lerner]

@SashaGusevPosts @JaneParkway @tracewoodgrains Why would the marginal student be the least likely to benefit from the program? I thought the detracking argument was that all students would benefit from the same kind of attention/resources a G&T program would provide?

[Josh Lerner @josh_lerner]

@SashaGusevPosts @JaneParkway @tracewoodgrains I don't have a dog in this fight, per se, just curious and also procrastinating while running models

[Josh Lerner @josh_lerner]

@SashaGusevPosts @JaneParkway @tracewoodgrains Why wouldn't an RDD deal with some of this confounding if the variance around the threshold on observables were truly as good as random?