Climate & security. Ex climate-negotiator, analyst, MSc,MIA, MMAA - European Climate Foundation - tweets in private capacity #climate Born at 326 ppm CO2 #NAFO
Thwaites Glacier!
The acceleration of the TEIS and the fragmentation of the ice at the rift are now certainties.
A potential mechanism that could slow the entire process has now also been confirmed to be non-existent.
The main conclusion:
There are no longer any pinning points.
All the September dynamical ENSO models (including SINTEX) are now in, and they give a 100% chance of a record event this year using the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) metric:
We Must Pace the Frontier: I’ve written a new essay on why the AI industry should slow down, with a three-part plan for doing so.
Anthropic is unilaterally committing to the first of these steps. We’ll provide third-party evaluators with permanent, employee-level access to our systems, so that they can verify adherence to our safety measures, report on incidents, and assess models’ alignment during training.
You can read the full post here: https://t.co/OGyPb7yaYt
As the planet heats up, tundras are thawing, wetlands are fermenting, and forests are succumbing to larger and more frequent wildfires.
A new study finds the breakdown of natural systems could amplify human-driven warming by 20 to 30 percent.
https://t.co/Pk9VIGTB3N
The world’s biggest carbon sink may start emitting CO₂ after net zero
If the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere declines, the Southern Ocean is likely to begin emitting more carbon than it absorbs, prolonging global warming
https://t.co/khxxP0NJ01
https://t.co/ehtVcGlDkr
AI: “I’ll soon be increasing exponentially!”
Sea Surface Temperature: “Hold my beer.”
I miss the good old days when we just faced one extinction level threat at a time.
"The AMOC is now at its weakest in at least 1,000 years." - Watch PIK’s Stefan Rahmstorf explain how climate change is putting the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation #AMOC at risk and what this could mean for Europe and the world.
➡️ Full video: https://t.co/V79wuWAXor
The media keep glossing over the impending El Niño,
but all datasets point to a monster.
The most important indicator we must keep an eye on is GMSST, for the value is already 0.8°C higher than during the Eemian warm period!
This is extremely worrying.
https://t.co/h8u8dr9B7u
Personally, I would like to appoint the Hungarian Foreign Minister @_OrbanAnita as an honorary #NAFO fella.
She's after the russian agents and shows the door to them
@JonnyHAuckland1@WeatherProf@hausfath Unless there is an emission crash due to large scale climate impacts and discontinuities on the way up, before the run away phase arrives. Be a bit more optimistic ;)
EXCLUSIVE: The EU must start considering “audacious” proposals to afford the steep costs of coping with climate change, the European Commission's green transition chief Teresa Ribera told POLITICO.
🔗 https://t.co/3NYKeOPbAa
@volcaholic1 ... and the next level is societal impacts. The worst scenario is that climate impacts erode the capacity and political will to reduce the root causes of the problem and a feedback spiral kicks in. It is called derailment of societies...
Some of us think that the effects on the Northern Hemisphere of the current El Niño were already significant.
But nothing could be further from the truth.
The effects are yet to come.
The global mean sea surface temperature will rise even further over the next eight months.
And we have a new all-time record warm *absolute* temperature for the oceans, according to ERA5 (which goes back to 1940):
August 21st likely marked the warmest Sea Surface Temperatures have been for the entire Holocene period, and possibly even as far back as the last Interglacial 125,000 years ago. Should be major news!
Ocean heat uptake has more than doubled.
This contributes to the record shattering Super El Niño
That's "the real issue" @DrJamesEHansen is referring to.
Breaking News!
Code: FUBAR!!!
On August 22, 2026, global sea-surface temperatures set a new (preliminary) record daily high of 21.180°C. The previous record high of 21.173°C was set on April 24, 2024. It will take 14 days to confirm this record.
We may need a bigger y-axis.