J Schwarz

geopolitics, prediction markets, the Fed, and anything that happens to catch my eye 🇺🇸 🇮🇱

[J Schwarz @JSchwarz91]

@WindwardAI Center corridor? This is the pre-war status quo route?

[J Schwarz @JSchwarz91]

@TheBarrelMind Normalizes by the start of August or the end of August?

[J Schwarz @JSchwarz91]

@LoganPredicts The Kalshi market was always more likely to go No….as opposed to Polymarket.

[J Schwarz @JSchwarz91]

@gbrew24 But what will Vahidi do is the question.

[J Schwarz @JSchwarz91]

@WindwardAI @redseamonitor True. And due to this fact the UAE is currently evaluating the possibility of building a refined products pipeline.

Let’s also not forget that a refined product such as jet fuel decays after a certain amount of time. As opposed to crude.

[Joel Berry @JoelWBerry]

In 1991 during the Gulf War, American A-10 Warthogs mistakenly targeted and opened fire on a column of allied British armored vehicles.

9 British soldiers were tragically killed. 11 more were injured.

Why haven't you heard about it? Why aren't there false-flag conspiracies? Why isn't Marjorie Taylor Greene posting on X about it?

Because Jews weren't involved.

[J Schwarz @JSchwarz91]

WEIRD is losing ground fast to non-WEIRD. And the future trajectory does not look bright.

Iykyk.

[Matt Hart @Hardymatt0]

If you want to make sense of the Henry Nowak murder, you need to understand the clan-based morality that South Asians operate under.

Here's a question: your family member is speeding in a car. They hit and kill someone. The police ask you what happened. Do you lie and protect your family, or do you tell the truth?

Probably for you, this is a genuine conundrum. You value adherence to "truth," and to violate this goes against something deep inside you.

For clannish societies, this isn't a problem at all. Lie and protect your family.

The discomfort you would feel from lying, they would feel that from NOT lying. Truth is not some divine principle to adhere to for them. That's clan loyalty. If truth serves clan loyalty, use it. If it doesn't, don't use it.

These kinds of cultures will hard counter us. While we hire the best man for the job, they hire their own. While we convict or acquit based on evidence, they protect their own.

You can bury your head in the sand and pretend this isn't happening. You can be a martyr and refuse to play that kind of game. The only result will be your own destruction.

[J Schwarz @JSchwarz91]

@theDChuddle @seanspicer @rachaelmbade @danturrentine With the U.S. giving Bibi the ok to hit Hezbollah in Beirut due to the daily non-stop attacks on Israel (likely at the behest of Iran) - it appears no deal is possible at this moment.

That said, how much leash do you think Trump is giving Bibi since Trump still wants a deal?

[J Schwarz @JSchwarz91]

@SinaToossi Which ships though? Smaller vessels that don’t even have AIS transponders?!

This is not commercial traffic.

No independent SoH traffic monitor has indicated that any sizable amount of commercial traffic has transited over the past few days.

[J Schwarz @JSchwarz91]

@mercoglianos So vessels that don’t even have AIS transponders and aren’t ever really tracked?

[J Schwarz @JSchwarz91]

There have been reports from Iranian linked media that Iran has allowed around 30 transits through the Strait of Hormuz over each of the last 3 days.

But I have not seen any SoH monitoring accounts confirming such reports even though reputable analysts have repeated the claim

[J Schwarz @JSchwarz91]

What explains this disparity? Anyone have an idea?

@TankerTrackers @WindwardAI @mercoglianos @HamidRezaAz @BabakVahdad @citrinowicz @RZimmt

[J Schwarz @JSchwarz91]

@theDChuddle @seanspicer @rachaelmbade @danturrentine Tensions in GOP Senate re ethanol.

Will the farmers eventually get their help at the expense of the refiners (in this rising gas price environment)?

Farm states really need to be shored up…
Big Ag is already in crosshairs of MAHA.

[Daniel Friedman @DanFriedman81]

X-Men is a Jewish comic, created and written through its peak era by Jews, about Jewish politics and antisemitism.

The circumstances of the mutants — a tiny minority who are hated and feared by the masses, and are the subject of wild conspiracy theories for which they are persecuted by masses who believe themselves to be persecuted by the mutants — does not analogize cleanly to antiblack racism or homophobia, but maps precisely onto antisemitism.

Xavier is a liberal Zionist and Magneto is a radical Zionist. Days of Future Past is about the Holocaust. Various arcs about mutants starting a homeland are all about the founding of Israel. There was a Claremont arc where Xavier and Magneto actually went to Israel. Xavier had an affair with an Israeli woman while he was there and his son David Haller — Legion — is an Israeli Jew.

Claremont based Magneto on Menachem Begin, trying to take him on an arc starting with the Irgun and ending with the peace treaty with Egypt.

And all of this is exactly why far left writers who get control of this franchise will do everything in their power to turn it into the most antisemitic thing ever.

[J Schwarz @JSchwarz91]

@Curious_Robe Framing is essential yea but Big Ag creates a lot of jobs in farm states.

[J Schwarz @JSchwarz91]

@Curious_Robe I mean it’s really a domestic issue.

It’s the refiners vs the farmers.

But with rising gas prices, helping farmers at the expense of refiners could raise gas prices at the margin.

Not helpful in current environment.

A needle will have to be threaded.

[J Schwarz @JSchwarz91]

@RZimmt And a Chinese (dark/sanctioned) ship carrying Iranian oil was detained by the Iranian military as well in early May.

In fact,a Chinese official told his Thai counterpart in recent weeks that 70 Chinese ships were stuck. If these ships get “unstuck” - a key development indeed.

[J Schwarz @JSchwarz91]

@RZimmt The proof will be in the pudding regarding the number of Chinese tankers allowed to pass through the strait.

From what I read the tanker was carrying Iraqi oil - a key detail.

And let’s not forget in the last few weeks a Chinese ship carrying non-Iranian energy was attacked..

[J Schwarz @JSchwarz91]

People quickly forget that China buys oil from countries in the Gulf other than Iran…and would prefer those shipments also not be tolled.

[Gregory Brew @gbrew24]

China has been telling Iran in private that tolls are a no-go.

Notable that they are willing to agree with the US on it, and to say so publicly. https://t.co/ZfdygEAagd