julian wallace

[Allen Cheng @peripatetical]

OK, has been a long week but will try to explain the ATAGI statement published tonight
https://t.co/OXwDfaX9Tw

[Trevor Bedford @trvrb]

I've been mulling over the @MRC_Outbreak modeling report on #COVID19 mitigation and suppression strategies since it was posted on March 16. Although mitigation through social distancing may not solve things I believe we can bring this epidemic under control. 1/19

[Steven Riley @SRileyIDD]

Our Report 9 on #COVID19 shouldn't be a surprise, but its not an easy read. This virus is just too severe. Flattening the curve not so different from containment. As per @WHO, very strong social distancing needed as soon as health care system in danger.

[Tom Inglesby, MD @T_Inglesby]

Cases are appearing in greater numbers in countries outside China and a number aren't linked to travelers. For example, dramatic
increase in cases in Rep of Korea today – 433 cases diagnosed, thousands more getting tested. https://t.co/wgRyYJ1u54 2/x

[Dr. Tom Frieden @DrTomFrieden]

Better surveillance is making visible what is usually invisible – the window for containing #COVID19 is shutting fast:
- South Korea cases quadrupled in 3 days (now 204)
- Passengers from Diamond Princess cruise ship testing positive around the world

[MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis @MRC_Outbreak]

UPDATE: #COVID19 sensitivity of international surveillance

➡️Two thirds of cases exported from mainland China are undetected.

🔰Read the full report: https://t.co/7A77NXZ3iw

[julian wallace @julianwallace01]

Coronavirus and the ethics of quarantine—why information matters - The BMJ https://t.co/eqwoRXp775

[Tom Inglesby, MD @T_Inglesby]

This thread pertains to important new info or developments re: the 2019nCoV epidemic happening over this past weekend, and underscores what we still need to learn on an urgent basis. Starting with new developments: (1/x)

[Muge Cevik @mugecevik]

2nd THREAD:
Starting a new thread on the unfolding research picture on #2019nCoV as the outbreak enters its 2nd month

This thread compiles scientific data (w links) on what we know so far on #nCoV2019

Note: Only scientifically sound research articles included

[MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis @MRC_Outbreak]

UPDATE: #coronavirus #2019nCoV Severity

➡️Estimated fatality ratio for infections 1%
➡️Estimated CFR for travellers outside mainland China (mix severe & milder cases) 1%-5%
➡️Estimated CFR for detected cases in Hubei (severe cases) 18%

🔰https://t.co/7A77NXZ3iw

[MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis @MRC_Outbreak]

Your questions on #CoronaVirus #2019nCoV answered:

@neil_ferguson on estimates, scale of the epidemic, forward projections, the role of modelling in outbreak response, informing governments, interventions, control measures & more

Watch the full video: 🔰https://t.co/Mp5MpxhQ6A

[julian wallace @julianwallace01]

“Preparedness systems are always designed to deal with the immediate past pandemic, and never the next”

[The BMJ @bmj_latest]

Once again we are playing catch up with #Coronavirus, argue @IlonaKickbusch and @gmleunghku—Neither our pandemic preparedness nor our response are working as well as they should https://t.co/MdBA2cCfZB #2019nC0V #EB146

[NEJM @NEJM]

Authors provide an epidemiologic analysis of first 425 confirmed cases of infection with #2019nCoV in Wuhan, China. This analysis provides estimates of the epidemic doubling time and the basic reproductive number and shows clear evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission.

[julian wallace @julianwallace01]

Real-time #2019nCoV GIS tracking at John Hopkins Centre for Health Security
https://t.co/4ojG8gWZtw

[ProMED @ProMED_mail]

PRO/AH/EDR> Novel coronavirus (19): China (HU) Transmission dynamics https://t.co/9An0FVnGfl

[Tom Inglesby, MD @T_Inglesby]

The following thread regards how we should be planning for the possibility that nCoV cannot be contained. #2019nCoV (1/x)

[Muge Cevik @mugecevik]

THREAD
As the #nCoV2019 outbreak continues, a lot of data emerging in real-time & being rapidly disseminated.

I compiled the available data (in no particular order) to have a better understanding of #nCoV2019 & will update the list as more info become available.
#IDTwitter

[MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis @MRC_Outbreak]

UPDATE: Transmissibility estimates of #coronavirus #2019nCoV at 2.6

Identification & testing potential cases to be as extensive as permitted by healthcare & testing capacity

🔰https://t.co/7A77NXZ3iw

@neil_ferguson @dr_anne_cori @SRileyIDD @MarcBaguelin @IlariaDorigatti

[julian wallace @julianwallace01]

A little piece on my experiences working as a GP in remote communities. https://t.co/isEzumV00r

[julian wallace @julianwallace01]

Working as a doctor in Utopia https://t.co/xeEOAcpHYE