Jerry Winograd

Apartment owner / operator, development of new suburban and re-development of distressed properties. Exploring and fishing in the Bahamas in my spare time.

[Jerry Winograd @jw_hou]

I call it a seven year real estate cycle. The Covid-19 programs put in place to assist renters created an artificially extended 10 year cycle, a soft downturn in 2020 would have been much healthier. Instead we saw a lot of dumb FOMO $$$ flow into deals that had no margin of error.

[Jerry Winograd @jw_hou]

@resetbasis I like your business model. I decided a long time ago that I would operate a smaller shop and not take outside $$$.

[Jerry Winograd @jw_hou]

@realEstateTrent @SimpleCRE I have sold a few deal to 1031’s, it is almost comical if they ask for a concession.

[Jerry Winograd @jw_hou]

@realEstateTrent I once left closing proceeds with an exchange company but could not find anything that met my criteria so I exited the exchange, best decision is to not compromise your criteria just to do a deal.

[Jerry Winograd @jw_hou]

@RentRollPodcast David and Matt built an amazing company with a first class team.

[Jerry Winograd @jw_hou]

@RandallHouseRE @kenashley Right, because we are in the real estate business. Betting on rates is another business altogether. Historically speaking rates are really good, they just seem high to the newcomers to the business.

[Jerry Winograd @jw_hou]

@robbiehendricks You wouldn’t be if you knew which grifter it is. I hear they had different sets of books and they accidentally released the one I saw.

[Jerry Winograd @jw_hou]

@iononrecourse If they opened new Chili’s with that same menu, same quality as in the 70’s and updated pricing it would be a huge hit.

[Jerry Winograd @jw_hou]

@realEstateTrent 1.25-1.75%

[Jerry Winograd @jw_hou]

@robbiehendricks It has always been cool imho. Keep doing smart deals @robbiehendricks and ignore the hype.

I know several GP’s that are now revamping their model, funny thing is their original model was great but they changed and followed the herd to slaughter.

[Jerry Winograd @jw_hou]

This is much better than talking about some failed apartment syndication from 2021, it is a given that many were destined to fail.

Somewhere in the southern Bahamas. No trophy here, all catch and release.

[Jerry Winograd @jw_hou]

@hahabusinessinc @MarkAllenMulti @BeardyBrandon I have seen it over multiple cycles over the past 40 years. It is always FOMO money at the end.

[Jerry Winograd @jw_hou]

I had been worried about the low rates for many years, probably too long. I was concerned about the refinancing risk in 10 years if financing costs went from 4% to 8%, what that would do to valuations. From my days in the early 90% I just assumed rates would always be closer to 10%. I considered the low rates a gift but planned for higher rates. I refused to borrow using any floating rate debt except for a construction loan.

[Jerry Winograd @jw_hou]

@buyahause @RetailBrokerHTX The following week.

[Jerry Winograd @jw_hou]

@buyahause @RetailBrokerHTX Crosstimbers and Yale. Let’s meet there for lunch when we are both are in town.

[Jerry Winograd @jw_hou]

@Jb2Investments Yes but it typically takes 14 months, notice may vary by state, to implement an across the board increase and only if the market allows for an increase, sometimes it can be a decrease. You are also assuming 100% occupancy.

[Jerry Winograd @jw_hou]

@bavedikian Correct. Every cycle ends the same way, FOMO money.