keith hsu

[keith hsu @keithhsu7]

@DaveHcontrarian @Frogman323 @BucktheBoxerbd @Caz1177 @Rajm101010 @HftForPeople @_OutlierTrading The conversation is about gundlach being bearish 30 year US treasury and “quoting” misquoting Lacy hunt as a perma bull turning bearish also.

[keith hsu @keithhsu7]

@DaveHcontrarian @Frogman323 @BucktheBoxerbd @Caz1177 @Rajm101010 @HftForPeople @_OutlierTrading Yes I am talking about Lacy hunt and his letter. Gundlach misquoted him based on his short term view of the oil shock and fed liquidity.

[keith hsu @keithhsu7]

@DaveHcontrarian @Frogman323 @BucktheBoxerbd @Caz1177 @Rajm101010 @HftForPeople @_OutlierTrading Bearish long bonds short term because of oil and fed liquidity. Not a long term view. Long term still slower growth and disinflation

[keith hsu @keithhsu7]

@DaveHcontrarian @Frogman323 @BucktheBoxerbd @Caz1177 @Rajm101010 @HftForPeople @_OutlierTrading He is a bond bull for the longest time. He only turned bearish long bond short term in his recent letter. No change long term.

[keith hsu @keithhsu7]

@AskEconMike @DaveHcontrarian @ReaderPhx @cry_bebi @Wilson24881774 @mikiofuku @Michael39148594 Isn’t Kevin Warsh revamping the Fed to more current data and doing away with forward guidance and dot plot? Only stance unclear is whether he will succumb to QE if there is a financial crisis like Powell in 2018.

[keith hsu @keithhsu7]

@DaveHcontrarian @AchillesofHomer @DataCenterTOG @gavin_gruesome @simple_setups @notArealDr65 @crae_ @noahpeachey11 @OliverNessa2 @phVbD2rDMjJBVgX @theandymillette 12-18months when the financial crisis starts or when it trends down below 4%? Do you think private credit is the pin that pops the bubble, causes all credit to freeze? The market cap seems to be only 1.8T VS 60T subprime crisis. The opacity is similar though.

[keith hsu @keithhsu7]

@DaveHcontrarian @intheox6030 @SangerDer53182 @B2Balzer @tack0305 @KevinKummerow @KCostello60588 @BucktheBoxerbd @MMusclesd @KimJungEn5 @yuriymatso While the whole world is focused on the war, private credit cracks are spreading to the big banks. Morgan Stanley just limited redemption to their PC funds and JP Morgan marking down the valuation of PC portfolio.

[keith hsu @keithhsu7]

@DaveHcontrarian @IK2379128548 @jevy_jefferson @GlennQ51832 @stevesezz @JaredOneeil @pinnacledigest How about private credit souring? Blue Owl Capital has just halted redemption for its fund aimed at retail investors. Before the 2008 financial crisis many funds halted redemption prior as well. Signs of financial market cracking?

[keith hsu @keithhsu7]

@DaveHcontrarian @0x_Aladdin @beachainbtc @antposemann @micageygirl Hi David are you aware of a possible Reserve Management Program that Mark Cabana predicted Powell may announce together with the rate cut? It is the ‘QE not QE’ that I have asked you before due to recent spiked in repo rates.

[keith hsu @keithhsu7]

@DaveHcontrarian @Jason73821 @MMusclesd @RobertWallSt A retest not a crash. 50 day ma is at 6700. A retest of that is reasonable after a whole week of thanksgiving rally.

[keith hsu @keithhsu7]

@DaveHcontrarian @VIKINGMASS @payroll101 @wealthion I mean in the near future pre-bust. Fed easing due to insufficient bank reserve after QT ends on 1st Dec.

[keith hsu @keithhsu7]

@DaveHcontrarian @VIKINGMASS @payroll101 @wealthion Do you expect a similar “ QE non QE” of the Fed by buying bills instead of a coupons to 2019? Together with weakening economic stats and lower CPI emerging that contribute to the weaker dollar?

[keith hsu @keithhsu7]

@DaveHcontrarian @BozoHero @SabatePlanes @8muerte @NamiHedazi @Bulldawg9891 Reduced government spending and TGA build is not good for liquidity and the stock market as well.

[keith hsu @keithhsu7]

@DaveHcontrarian @BozoHero @SabatePlanes @8muerte @NamiHedazi @Bulldawg9891 Why would a prolonged shutdown not affect the melt up thesis? Powell sounded hawkish the previous meeting and saying he prefers to do nothing when walking in a fog. This takes away the Fed as a tailwind until official BLS data makes him dovish again.

[keith hsu @keithhsu7]

@DaveHcontrarian @professor_0x @milliman88 @HftForPeople It should be some time in December 2025. Usually it take several months but this case is expedited.

[keith hsu @keithhsu7]

@DaveHcontrarian @Longshot_Cap @KobeissiLetter Not listening to anyone. Just getting a sense of whether we are still in the parabolic phase if not coming soon. Never experienced it before so not sure if past few weeks’ sideways consolidation is normal in a melt up or we have still not entered one.

[keith hsu @keithhsu7]

@DaveHcontrarian @Longshot_Cap @KobeissiLetter How about the thinking that Goldilocks is now already. Any further weakness in economy or financial markets will be obvious hard landing or financial crisis. So parabolic melt up has to be in the coming next few months if not happening?

[keith hsu @keithhsu7]

@DaveHcontrarian @AvnerMandelman The demand and momentum will usually bring it higher than the simple formula. Look at the 180 peak in 2020. The 10 year didn’t go negative.

[keith hsu @keithhsu7]

@DaveHcontrarian @0x_Aladdin @jaysan_lamba @JrMiningGuy As average life of the mortgage shortens when people switch from 30yr fixed to ARM, banks buy more 5y and 10y to reduce duration risks. This demand of treasuries sure won’t hurt the rate forecast.

[keith hsu @keithhsu7]

@DaveHcontrarian @0x_Aladdin @jaysan_lamba @JrMiningGuy Does mortgage rate falling and refinancing part of your thesis for 10 year treasury yield to drop to 2-3%, as the banks do convexity hedging of the duration risk through swaps and treasury buying?