keaze

Ad Astra

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@JeffBezos FYI

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$ASTS

Scotia Bank thinks that AST is a “top target” for M&A. If Abel were to sell, who do you think is the most likely buyer?

For Microsoft, Apple, or Other - leave it in the comments!

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@davill Love the speed Dave has brought to BO.

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@lawyerschiff Any religion that celebrates the deaths of any human life, is not a religion worth recognizing. Any religion that requires it, should be condemned by all of humanity.

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@TyrellCorpe @BlackScholesMan @grok Remember that 85% of any Globalstar capacity goes to Apple.

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@brian_c_massey @arnpman17 I think about the covered calls they bought at $149.

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@endless_frank @thekookreport Throw back to some fun mental gymnastics:

https://t.co/zl3RSv4H95

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$ASTS $ASTSpacemobile

Sunday Funday - Did AST Spacemobile align with Blue Origin years before we expected?

Sometimes we can’t take everything so seriously, and sometimes the gummy hits just right and pulls back the curtains on what is clearly evident. So here are some fun musings for the weekend:
Blue Origin and AST have been “partners” for years - and it’s literally in the naming.

In July of 2016, Abel sold EMC and became unemployed. Two months later, Blue Origin announced the development of their New Glenn heavy lift rocket - with no defined business of their own to fill it with.

Eight months later, AST Spacemobile is founded and chooses Midland, TX as it’s base of operations - just 184 miles down the road from Launch Site One - Blue Origin’s launch base since 2004. Not just the same state, the same West Texas industrial corridor.

Plenty of “coincidences” point to a deeper partnership:
- New Glenn fairing sizing was perfect for AST satellites from the jump - they needed a flagship partner.
- AST needed heavy lift cadence, without competition.
- BO has still not announced any plans for D2D - supporting Amazon’s fixed wireless business instead.
- BO is launching Terawave, a constellation which is actually complimentary to AST Satellites, and itself benefits from AST “last mile” support.
- Obviously, AST is now their largest launch customer - and “Amazing things are happening.”

We’ve explained those links many times over, but it’s much simpler - it’s just in the name.

The name shows us that BO views AST as part of their stack, just how Abel envisioned it years ago.

AST begins working on their first prototypes named BlueWalker 1 and BlueWalker 3, eventually transitioning the naming convention to Bluebirds.

WHY? What would you call these satellites Bluebirds?

These satellites are the largest commercial arrays ever put into orbit. It makes sense to name them after a bird - because they are literally flying. But if their differentiator is their orbit height and their “wingspan,” why wouldn’t these be named after avian giants like condors, herons, eagles - or give a nod to a tern who migrates up to 50,000 miles a year?

Instead - we named them after a bird that weights roughly an ounce…

Abel hails from Venezuela - Bluebirds don’t even live in Venezuela, in fact, they hardly populate West Texas. The Bluebird naming convention only works in one scenario…

It clearly isn’t about ornithology - it is about brand adjacency. A nod to BO’s ecosystem, where AST could slot in as the mobile connectivity layer.

Blue Origin’s own product stack includes Blue Moon and Blue Ring as flagship programs.

And now, they have Bluebirds.

Oh, their logo? A nod to flight and rocket reusability with the image of a slightly ruffled feather floating back down to Earth, shown in the color…. Blue.

I think that there has been an understanding in the development and growth of these two companies from just before AST was created.

Wild take - in the run up or aftermath of a SpaceX IPO this year - Blue Origin and AST will make this partnership “official” with some form of strategic investment or business combination. These birds are coming home to nest.

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@scott_m_powell Scott - the real Mob knows your commitment, you don’t owe these guys anything! When I grow up I want to have Scott’s AST position.

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@Glenjamin69 I wish that were the case. I’m not convinced it is.

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$ASTS

I've held $ASTS since the de-SPAC and bought everywhere from $2 to over $100. Now I'm looking hard at the opportunity cost and asking whether my money is in the right place for what's next. I don't think I'm alone.

Some of the drop is macro, a soft sector, and fading momentum. But relative to the rest of the sector, we do struggle with communication and dare I say, credibility. Timeline after timeline from earnings calls has slipped: satellites in orbit, commercial service, and the government contract details we were told were coming. Some of this has been out of our control - but communication is always available to management.

Management, here's what long-term holders need on the next call:

1️⃣ Production: How many BlueBirds were completed in each of July, August, and September? On what date will Midland hit a sustained 6 per month? Investors need to gauge production process. If we cannot meet 6 per month, then all future financial projections should be called into question.

2️⃣ Launches: Give us the launch-by-launch schedule through mid-2027, with the target month, and the number of satellites on each one. Which are under signed contract, and which are still tentative?

3️⃣ Government: Name the government agreements that are actually signed, their dollar value, and how long they run. Which of the contracts that were touted are still pending, and by what date will they be disclosed?

4️⃣ Capital: In July you raised $1.15B in convertible notes. You said the money would "secure additional access to orbit" and fund "partnerships and/or acquisitions to further vertically integrate" and reduce reliance on third-party launch providers, and you also said there were no agreements yet. Three months later, what launch access has that money actually secured, and what vertical-integration deals have been signed? How much of the $1.15B has been spent, and on what? With over $3.7B in pro forma cash, what's the quarterly burn through 2027, and is another raise coming?

In this market we don't need more optimism. We need numbers, dates, and commitments that get met. I believe that the mission of this company is going to change lives, create a ton of value, and is in the end quite noble.

I understand space is hard and expensive and timelines can shift. In the last few years I have learned more about spectrum, wavelengths, and regulatory requirements than I ever thought I would. I believe the technology is superior to anything else available and that the first principles approach has been dead on from the beginning.

That being said, we are competing in a field with the richest and most successful business men ever to have lived. The odds are certainly stacked against us, and timing here is everything. I think Space growth is going to be a defining shift in the trajectory of humanity akin to the railroad, international shipping, computing, and the internet. This is a huge opportunity that generations after us will wish they had a chance to invest in - but I have to ask whether I have backed the right horse at the right time. I believe I have, but I need more from our leadership at this pivotal moment.

Hold tight, Spacemob. 🛰️

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@Reformed_Trader Good to see you posting - hope all is well on the homefront!

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What questions do you want to see asked/answered on the next earnings call?

For me:
- what is the current production rate of sats, and when will you confidently achieve 6/mo?
- what did they spend the July raise on - specifically, have any agreements been entered into or has more launch been purchased?

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@Puffery69 @AST_SpaceMobile I also submitted these to investor relations for the call.

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@NobleSanguinius Correct - and there a million ways they can indicate booked launches without violating any NDA provisions.

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@Defiantclient2 @scott_m_powell @AbelAvellan I’d much rather it be an Amazon/BO acquisition than the MNOs, but that may complicate things internationally.

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@Defiantclient2 @SpacBobby Apparently we are going to skip launching BB31 and 32.

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@Defiantclient2 @AmazonLeo ULA is rumored to be for sale, I wonder if AMZN would add that to their stable of launch.

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@thekookreport I still feel like AMZN/BO is the natural partner/acquirer for ASTS.

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@Enrico__Palazz0 @peter_adderton It can add certainty to Abel’s goal, not just probability. I am sure he is looking at multiple scenarios. I’m here for what Abel believes will work best in the long term.