Kris Hannis

[Kris Hannis @kghannis]

@tferriss @bryan_johnson Stop eating 3-4 hours before bedtime. This lowers your resting heart rate, which is thr best predictor of a good night’s sleep.

[Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta]

Gold is rising as the market begins to price in the likelihood of a Fed forced to cut rates further, despite persistent inflation, in my view.

Other metals are likely just waking up to this reality.

Gold is now 44% above its 2011 peak, while silver remains nearly 30% below its level from the same period.

However, don’t misinterpret the situation.

Gold is also signaling the potential for another wave of inflation ahead, making the Fed’s job even harder as interest payments for federal and local governments are already nearing 5% of GDP.

Not to mention:

China’s possible stimulus could add even more fuel to the inflation fire, in my opinion.

This gold move is critical but keep an eye on other metals and commodities that typically lag behind it.

[Jesse Felder @jessefelder]

'Quarterly flows into global exchange traded funds have smashed previous records with investors throwing half a trillion dollars worth of new money into the vehicles over the past three months.' https://t.co/e4kPOXVajT

[Barchart @Barchart]

JUST IN 🚨: Coffee hits all-time high ☕️

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

The real reason birth rates are declining:

It now costs up to 25% of median household income for childcare in the US.

Almost all regions of the United States regions have daycare costs that require 15% of the median household income.

Meanwhile, childcare inflation was up 6.2% year-over-year in August, more than double current CPI inflation.

Over the last ~30 years, the cost of daycare and preschool is up 263%, significantly outpacing inflation of 133%.

All while the median monthly home payment is approaching 50% of median household income.

Living in the US is incredibly expensive.

[Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta]

Today, silver prices reached their highest level in over a decade.

Widespread skepticism surrounding the metal remains, which, in my opinion, represents one of the most extreme supply-demand mismatches we've ever seen.

Very little capital has been allocated to developing new silver mines, with a notable absence of significant new discoveries worldwide.

The macro thesis for silver remains incredibly compelling, in my view.

[Barchart @Barchart]

Gold hits another all-time high 🚨

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

What in the world is happening to Gold?

Gold prices are up a MASSIVE 28% in 2024 to a fresh record high of $2,660/oz.

This puts Gold on track for its best annual return since 1979, all while the Fed is calling for a "soft landing."

Is Gold telling us something?

(a thread)

[Barchart @Barchart]

Coffee hits all-time high ☕️🚨

[Barchart @Barchart]

JUST IN 🚨: Gold hits new all-time high

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Current situation:

1. Stocks are falling like the big tech bubble has popped

2. Oil prices are falling like we are entering a recession

3. Gold prices are falling like rate cuts got cancelled

4. Bond prices are falling like inflation is on the rise

5. Natural gas prices are falling like there's no demand

6. Crypto is falling like risk appetite has disappeared

September has commenced with a widespread rush to the sidelines.

[₿rett @brettmacro]

We are 15 days away from the first Fed rate cut of this cycle.

Using that same time frame, I overlayed the following past rate cut cycles: 1981, 1990, 2000, and 2007.

These four cutting cycles matched the same data that we're seeing currently (unemployment rate curving up, 10y2y inversion, etc).

The sentiment from the Bulls is that rate cuts are suitable for the market. This is true...in the long run. History shows that the market pumps, on average, for 25 days after rate cuts, followed by an average of a 13-month sell-off.

Could we get one last pump around the cuts?
Will this time be different?

Anyone who tells you what exactly will happen is lying. Be open-minded, look at all the data, and use your best judgment.

$SPX $QQQ #Recession #Economy

[Barchart @Barchart]

BREAKING 🚨: China

Deaths in China now outnumber births by the largest margin in history after the number of births fell to a record low in 2023!

[Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) @chigrl]

Woozer

Allstate to raise California home insurance rates by 34% on average. Map details hikes up to 650%

Data included in the company’s filings show that the greatest increases will happen in Fresno, Madera and Mariposa counties. A lone homeowner in the 95325 ZIP code in Mariposa County will see rates increase by 385%, while the 95369 ZIP code in Merced County will see rates go up an average of 214%. Homeowners in Sonoma and Napa counties will also see particularly large increases, with rates in the 95442 ZIP code in Sonoma rising an average of 164%. (San Francisco Chronicle)

[Barchart @Barchart]

Global Central Banks bought a RECORD HIGH 483 tonnes of Gold during the first half of the year according to World Gold Council

[Barchart @Barchart]

Coffee jumps to highest closing price in history 🚨☕️

[Barchart @Barchart]

JUST IN 🚨: Coffee soars to an All-Time High ☕️

[Nick Gerli @nickgerli1]

A friendly reminder that we are in the biggest housing bubble of all-time.

Inflation-adjusted home prices today are almost 100% higher than the long-term, 130-year average.

Only 2x in US history where this has ever happened: 2006 and right now.

Note how from 1890 to 2000, home prices were closely linked to inflation and never entered a national bubble.

[Jesse Felder @jessefelder]

Ranked: The Countries That Added the Most Gold Reserves (2013-2023) https://t.co/dYEw9eMSvp by @VisualCap

[Jesse Felder @jessefelder]

"A fundamental 'true' peak of the semiconductor cycle based on YoY sales/pricing growth is nearing." https://t.co/TZJrswPZ0T via @dailychartbook