Mike

The Macro world and Futures Trading

[MacroStrategy Partnership @MacrostrategyP]

Economics does a poor job of understanding energy. Economics is constructed to provide an accounting of the economy. But the economy is not driven by accountancy. The motive force of the economy is the extraction of cheap energy and its conversion into productive, or useful...

[Mike @kingwils]

@SpoozDon Hey Don...just took a sub to your substack. How do I join the telegram room though? Thanks

[Tucker Carlson @TuckerCarlson]

Ep. 5 As in most of the developing world, it's safer to be the president's son than his opponent.

[Mike @kingwils]

@FlowOperator stopped out then hey

[Mike @kingwils]

@AaronRentfrew well done Aaron!

[Crashman @Crashman_X]

Someone did the math on how the housing ponzi affects this generation compared to the days of old.

@parrapower2022 @solo_dio_ @rabbit_wealth @AvidCommentator @BikoKonstantin1 @Aus__Property @rabbit_wealth @justthink1 @cjoye

[Mike @kingwils]

@AdamMancini4 followed all your levels Adam....brilliant newsletter! I'm out at 67.50....been trailing since 4193. Thank you for all the guidance you provide!!

[MacroStrategy Partnership @MacrostrategyP]

Based on the formula that 25bpts of rate move equates to 1.5% change in money supply, the full effect of the Fed’s tightening should be USD8.1trn. Instead, M2 is only down USD880bn. By betting that the Fed will cut rates, Main Street and Wall Street has limited the effect of...

[Mike @kingwils]

@InfinitusCap debt ceiling compression is building nicely...

[MacroStrategy Partnership @MacrostrategyP]

Interesting chart.....

[MacroStrategy Partnership @MacrostrategyP]

The Dallas Fed Manufacturing index fell from -15.7 to -23.4, its lowest since July last year. It was the 12thconsecutive month below zero, indicating 12 months of contraction. The comments from participants included that “funding has dried up to purchase our products”.......hhmmm

[MacroStrategy Partnership @MacrostrategyP]

U.S. money supply fell a 3-month annualised 7.49%. It was down USD420.7bn non annualised, with base money up USD103.8bn but commercial money down USD524.5bn. Bank deposits were down USD76bn last week alone. Whilst the banks keep insisting that there is no banking crisis.....

[Mike @kingwils]

@orderflowlabs 13072

[MacroStrategy Partnership @MacrostrategyP]

McCarthy said the plan would serve as the basis for negotiations with the Democrats. The plan would repeal renewable energy incentives signed into law by President Biden last year, boost domestic oil and gas production and scrap his USD400bn student loan forgiveness effort.....

[MacroStrategy Partnership @MacrostrategyP]

US savings rates are tracking higher than my initial projections. The implication is profound; it brings the US GDP and earnings recession forward by six months; Q3 2023 now looks like crunch time for the US economy.

[MacroStrategy Partnership @MacrostrategyP]

Central banks are facing large losses on bond portfolios, and governments are increasingly concerned about their rising interest bill and the loss of income from the central bank losses. Another major challenge is financial instability. Since the 1970s, in close to 1/5th......

[MacroStrategy Partnership @MacrostrategyP]

we are now moving towards the view that they run out sooner rather than later in both the US & Europe.

[Mike @kingwils]

@vwaptrader1 @Microefutures @gocharting just took out a sub, thank you

[MacroStrategy Partnership @MacrostrategyP]

The U.S. NFIB Small Business credit conditions index fell to -9, its worst since 2012, with the monthly change -4, which other than a -5 print in December 2002 was the worst on record......again, not news!

[MacroStrategy Partnership @MacrostrategyP]

no effect on the broader economy, so far. These dynamics mean that the US economy has never been so insensitive to Fed tightening. This in turn has encouraged the Fed to tighten further.