Market Thoughts
No sugarcoating it, the market is brutalizing everything but Bitcoin atm. BTC down to 95k with BTC Dominance at 61% is a sight to behold - basically everything bleeding against it, and bleeding massively against their USD pairs.
There's an insane amount of fud going around now -- I think sometimes people forget what fud stands for: fear, uncertainty, and doubt.
This is obviously because of Trump and the tariffs, but also just general market weariness and hesitation over everything Trump related. It's hard to say how warranted it is, but whenever I think about it, I realize that nothing fundamentally has changed.
He is doing everything he said he would. He has followed through on all promises so far. One of the things he said is that he would be the "crypto president", and we have a tonne of positive changes already made: ross freed, SBR proposed, gensler gone, crypto council/czar, etc etc.
The medium and long term outlook for crypto is better than it's ever been. The short term is anyone's guess, as it's always been.
The best thing to do in times like this is to take a step back, breathe, and evaluate. Think about what is within your power to change, and if there is anything you can learn. Were you too heavy in alts? memecoins? ai agents? nfts? Did you have 80% of your portfolio in the riskiest assets and little to no majors? no stables?
You can't change the past, but you can learn from it and make better decisions going forward.
I've made a lot of mistakes myself. I was probably too heavy in all of the above categories. Even though I took more profits over the last year than ever before in my crypto journey (both in absolute terms and in % terms), I still think I probably ought to have taken more and been more consolidated into the majors, and less spread-too-thin.
Can't change the past. But will use this as a reminder going forward to try and do better.
In terms of specific holdings, I remain bullish on a lot of the things I have been bullish on these last few months: PENGU, "nothing token", AIXBT, VADER, VIRTUAL, HYPE, PRIME. And ofc the majors, max bullish on ETH still, and also bullish on SOL and ofc BTC.
If the bull market continues (I think there's a v high chance it does), these should all bounce back strongly imo. Yes there are an infinite number of tokens out there, but there aren't an infinite number of good tokens. That's the difference. There are a lot of them, sure, but it's relatively easy to separate the junk from the legitimate and the tokens that have been around for a while, have teams and communities backing them, stand a strong chance of coming back.
This is no guarantee of course, and the reason for spreading bets into a few is that chances are at least one of the above mentioned tokens won't recover. But the r/r is that the gains from the one(s) that do, will make up for the losses in the other.
I know it's scary out there and it's not fun to log in every day and see your portfolio down another 20-30% every fucking day. This is crypto though. This is the insane world we choose to partake in.
Tremendous gains would not be possible without the risk of tremendous losses. It's why I always say the best strategy for most is simply to DCA into the majors and hold and wait a bunch of years. Most people here choose not to do that though (myself included), and that's fine, but we must acknowledge that we're playing with fire and accept that we're gonna get burned from time to time.
Don't let it get you too down -- you're still in a better position than most, and you're in roughly the right place, at roughly the right time, surrounded by opportunities. Infinite Regret and all that.
And if all else fails, being grateful for health, friends, family, pets, food, roof, etc etc can help mollify the pain.
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Spot on. Too many people focus on short-term pumps instead of positioning for long-term, sustainable growth. Compounding is the real edge.
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