Giles Korzenecki

algorithmic commercial grain analyst

[Physics In History @PhysInHistory]

A New Zealand farmer's son who became the greatest experimentalist of his era, Rutherford discovered alpha and beta radiation, named the proton, and in 1911 read the Geiger–Marsden scattering results correctly to conclude that the atom is almost entirely empty space around a tiny dense nucleus.

He said it was as if you had fired a fifteen-inch shell at tissue paper and it had bounced back.

He won the 1908 Nobel in chemistry, to his own amusement, having always regarded chemistry as a lesser subject, and later achieved the first artificial nuclear transmutation in 1919. He trained an extraordinary number of laureates at the Cavendish, including Chadwick, Cockcroft and Kapitsa, and died in 1937 still convinced that nuclear energy would never be practical.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

US consumers are planning to cut back on spending:

The proportion of consumers planning to spend more on restaurants, bars, and take out over the next 6 months fell -2 percentage points in August, to ~24.5%, the 2nd-lowest since September 2025.

US consumers expecting to spend more on health care services fell -3 percentage points in August, to ~19.5%, the lowest since September 2025.

This also marks the steepest monthly decline among the top 5 categories tracked by the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Survey.

At the same time, just ~21.5% of consumers now expect to spend more on beauty and personal care, down -1 percentage point from July and the lowest level since November 2025.

Furthermore, ~22.0% of consumers expect to spend more on streaming, internet, and mobile services, down -1 percentage point from the prior month, the 2nd-lowest since November 2025.

Consumers are pulling back on spending plans.

[Giles Korzenecki @korzenecki]

@BillAckman Prayers to her

[Gregory Zuckerman @GZuckerman]

Had the pleasure of lunching w/ legendary commodity trader Richard Dennis today in Chicago. A Leopold Aschenbrenner of his day, Dennis was nicknamed "the Prince of the Pit." Dennis chased trends, making $50m three times in his career (in the '70s that could buy u something). At 26, he purchased 3% of the White Sox for $300k, selling the stake over the years for $20m.

Was leverage where Aschenbrenner went wrong? No, says, Dennis--he didn't focus on liquidity and avoiding becoming a target of shorts. By more actively trading his positions, he could have avoided the front runners.
"He needed to be more Livermore and less Einstein," Dennis says. "He was a whale who stopped swimming."

What does the 77-old Dennis do all day today? Trade--what did you think? His average holding period? Five days, like most of his career.
"I'm a degenerate trader," he told me, "I'll be out of my positions by the time" you read this.

[Jack Farley @JackFarley96]

Legendary💯

"Not only am I the Treasury Secretary, Jens, I also was your first client" - @SecScottBessent

Great moment at Exante by Vanda 10 Year Anniversary Conference @ExanteData @vandaresearch

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: South Korea’s stock market falls nearly -8% as the global chip stock selloff accelerates.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The S&P 500 erases all gains and turns red on the day as chip stocks fall.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

It's official:

US oil prices are now up over +20% in 15 days as the Iran War has resumed.

In another sudden turn of events, Brent oil prices are on the verge of rising back above $90/barrel.

[James E. Thorne @DrJStrategy]

Contrary to the fear many keep trying to stoke. Oil prices continue to fall.

WTIC firmly below $70 👇

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

Shocking stat of the day:

The 2x leveraged long memory ETF, $RAM, posted ~$380 million in notional volume on its first trading day on Wednesday, the largest first-day volume for any US-listed leveraged or inverse ETF on record.

This fund tracks the memory ETF, $DRAM, and is designed to deliver 200% of its daily performance.

This exceeds the previous record, set by the 2x leveraged long SpaceX ETF, $SPCH, which saw ~$280 million in notional volume on its June 15 debut.

By comparison, the 2x leveraged short SpaceX ETF, $SSPC, ranked 3rd with ~$215 million in volume on its June 15 debut.

Meanwhile, the Memory ETF, $DRAM, is up +177% since its inception on April 2nd.

Capital is flooding into memory and storage technology stocks.

[VKMacro @VKMacro]

Keen to hear any pushback

[Giles Korzenecki @korzenecki]

Crude breaking support
Watching sco
Grains to follow?

[Giles Korzenecki @korzenecki]

@fwalsh1 @optionsbbq Get rid of SAFE T law!

[frank walsh @fwalsh1]

Sickening!

[Ald. Raymond Lopez @RaymondALopez]

Neither the Latino Caucus of the Chicago City Council or Springfield General Assembly has said a single damn word in support of this Latina victimized by a repeat violent offender out on the street thanks to the SAFE-T Act they so love.

I wonder if any Dem Committeeman are going to bring it up Monday at the @cookcodems meeting.

[Giles Korzenecki @korzenecki]

@CWBChicago Pritzker. The safe t act
Needs 2b eliminated
Per deep interviews with chicago cops

[Max Wiethe @maxwiethe]

Is your portfolio focused on the "Main Thing"?

Kieran Cavanna, founder and CIO of Old Farm Partners and former head of external managers at Soros Fund Management, joins @opmpod to discuss his high-conviction approach to thematic investing.

YouTube: https://t.co/Xmk9S5uiSm
Apple: https://t.co/bNl3AxeGXR
Spotify: https://t.co/kbqROuiQWN

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

It's official:

Step #9 of our "Conflict Playbook" has arrived, just ~10 days after we initially expected it.

The 2-week ceasefire between the US and Iran is similar in nature to President Trump's April 2025 "tariff pause."

On April 9th, 2025, President Trump announced a "90-day" tariff pause as the bond market collapsed. Ironically, this was almost exactly one-year ago, to the day.

The 90-day pause was followed by a US-China trade deal just weeks later, with markets never retesting their lows.

Today, President Trump announced that the 2-week ceasefire between the US, Iran, and Israel will be utilized to "finalized and consummate" a lasting peace agreement between the nations.

This paves the path for Step #10 of our "Conflict Playbook" which will materialize over the coming weeks.

Pattern recognition is incredibly profitable in this market.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: We have received the full details on the US-Iran 2-week ceasefire announced by President Trump:

Details include:

1. The 2-week pause is subject to Iran agreeing to the "complete, immediate, and safe opening" of the Strait of Hormuz

2. Trump describes this as a "double sided ceasefire" brokered by Pakistan

3. Trump says the US has "already met and exceeded all military objectives"

4. Trump says the US and Iran are "far along with a definitive agreement for long-term peace"

5. Trump says Iran's 10-point proposal is a "workable basis" and this two-week period will allow an agreement to be finalized

We now await comment from Iran.

[Decado @ItsDecado]

I am bleeding my pockets dry paying astronomical prices for a half broken internet connection just to read what the outside world is saying. And let me be honest, it is absolutely infuriating to see how completely disconnected so many of you are from the actual mood of the people inside Iran.

Do not lose your nerve. Do not be afraid.

The narrative you are seeing right now is a complete illusion.

The voices currently being amplified online are fake, manipulated, and engineered by the cyber army of this cannibalistic regime.

They have locked us in a digital prison and severed our connection to the world specifically so they can control the narrative and project a false sense of fear and submission.

We are not cowering in the dark. We are watching a dying terrorist syndicate thrash in its final days.

Do not judge the resolve of the Iranian people based on the fabricated noise of our captors. Wait until these walls come down. Wait until this internet blackout is broken and you can finally hear the unfiltered, undeniable roar of a nation that has been stripped to the bone.

You will see exactly what an unstoppable force looks like.

Hold the line. Level the playing field and we will finish the job.