During the past four-decade disinflationary trend, 10 year Treasury yields never went over the prior cycle's top in the federal funds rate (defined here as at least a 150 basis point cut, rather than minor midcycle tweaks).
To do so this time would suggest a macro regime change.
In Q1 2019, 39% of Stripe's hiring was outside Bay Area and Seattle. Last quarter, it was 74%. I think the rate at which tech industry is going global is still under-appreciated, and that this will be a big tailwind for the world over the next decade.
Pandemic Day 25: I made bread :)
Day 95: I sure do miss my friends
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Day 310: The White House appears to be under the control of a shirtless man in a Viking helmet
Day 330: Reddit’s coordinated attack on Wall Street is going as planned