links

[links @linkyoptions]

@nobody0101889 @straits_times dummy comment

[links @linkyoptions]

@oguzerkan then why are oil futures still high? Mispricing?

[links @linkyoptions]

@alphaticaio quick question why does Puts volume matter in this case? If the Put wall is positive GEX it shouldn’t matter right?

[Alphatica @alphaticaio]

The same models we used to predict each all time high this year (weeks in advance) sees all time highs around the week of October 5. Do not blow yourself up. Cash is a position too.

$SPY

[Oguz Erkan @oguzerkan]

Headlines: $NVDA trading at its cheapest valuation in a decade

That’s tempting, but when you dig a bit deeper, it makes sense.

Here is why:

$NVDA is the king of training. However, as performance gains from training plateau, AI workloads increasingly shift to inference.

We have already seen this with pre-training as its compute share declined from 67% in 2024 Q1 to 13% last quarter.

Yet total share of training has remained somewhat stable around 62-63%, as post-training replaced pre-training.

Gains from post training will inevitably plateau as well, and we’ll see inference expand its market share.

Over the medium term, possibly by 2030, we’ll see inference take up more than 50% of compute share.

ASICs are expected make up for 50% of inference compute while training will keep being 80% GPUs.

JP Morgan sees total AI accelerator market around $1.5 trillion in 2030 with hyperscalers accounting for $1 trillion of it.

This means that if $NVDA keeps 90% share in GPUs, we are looking at $900 billion total revenue for $NVDA in 2030.

If capex growth stalls, let alone declining, and total AI accelerator demand ends up around $1 trillion instead of $1.5, $NVDA expected revenue declines to $700 billion levels.

Even if $NVDA keeps 60% net margin, we are looking at $8.4 trillion company assuming 20x exit multiple.

It’s already at $5.4 trillion.

So, the market is duly pricing the risk of lesser than expected growth in AI accelerator demand.

We are not looking at a no brainer, only a fairly priced issue.

[links @linkyoptions]

@Banana3Stocks nice detailed presentation. Thoughts on whether it will continue above $650? Thanks

[The Macro Paper @macropaperr]

🚨 WALL STREET’S BIGGEST OPTIONS RESET IN HISTORY IS COMING.

By September 18, $9.6 trillion worth of options tied to US stocks will expire, the largest such event in history, according to Citadel Securities.

That's roughly 35% of all outstanding US options exposure vanishing in a single session.

Here's why it matters.

Currently, dealers holding the other side of these option trades often buy stocks when prices dip, acting like a hidden shock absorber for the market.

Once these options expire, that buying pressure disappears overnight.

With that support gone, any surprise news, from Fed decisions to inflation data, could move markets far more violently than usual in the days right after.

This is why September 18 isn't just a random day. It's the day the market loses one of its biggest built-in stabilizers.

[links @linkyoptions]

@Banana3Stocks BOOM! 🤗💥

[links @linkyoptions]

@Banana3Stocks Nice one!

[links @linkyoptions]

@WealthCoachMak any reason why in this case you go for longer dated options? Thanks!

[Oguz Erkan @oguzerkan]

Own assets or be left behind:

Gold is up 6,500% in since 1973, while wages are up by only 704%.

Cumulative inflation since then? 652%.

Assets appreciate in real terms while annual real wage growth is near 0%.

[Banana3 @Banana3Stocks]

Yes it’s just a simple moving average set to 325, the on,y one key thing is to make sure you’re charting software has “all trading hours” or “extended trading hours” turned ON

Different brokerages or charting software call it different things but you want pre market and after hours turned on so that the lines match up more. I like ALLLL the day in my charts

[Banana3 @Banana3Stocks]

$NVDA

People always ask me about the Banana325SMA 🍌 📈

They ask if it works on all stocks and all assets and all time frames

The answer is YESSSSS

People knew to technical analysis think that means some guaranteed bottom or top or move…. NOOOOO

What a great indicator or VWAP or moving average can possibly do to be special is be an “IMPORTANT POINT OF INTEREST”

In this game if you know where an important point of interest may be it’s called an “EDGE” and any edge in this game is a BIG DEAL

It was literally my life’s work to discover the secret moving average of the market 😳

And I gave it away for FREEEEEE!!!!

P.S. as a reminder the entire 60 TRILLION DOLLAR stock market (the S&P 500 $SPY) that bottomed in the end of March 2026 has bottomed EXACTLY to the penny - not on the 50DMA or 200DMA but it was the Banana325SMA to the penny and we never looked back - and most people don’t even know about it or have it on their charts, could you imagine 😉

Much love! 💜🍌🍌🍌

(NVDA 5 minute chart below)

[links @linkyoptions]

@Banana3Stocks does it work for any time frame? Much appreciation, thanks!

[Julia Spina @FinancePhoton]

https://t.co/9cRGvY5QeK

[Banana3 @Banana3Stocks]

$QQQ

QQQ - weekly chart analysis 💜

🎯 $760 👀

The Q’s had formed a “Morning Star Reversal Pattern 💫” (yellow circle) right at and above the “Descending Wedge” (in blue)

Currently price is holding above the “Morning Star” and has held and reclaimed a key faster paced moving average, especially on the weekly time frame, the 13EMA (In purple)

RSI has currently broke above its downtrend and has reset from overbought conditions on the weekly time frame when it almost hit 80RSI on the weekly is extreme. The indicator has reset overbought conditions which gives it room to resume an uptrend if it can exceed previous all time highs and make a higher high, it just needs a catalyst to do that 🤔

I can think of a few upcoming catalysts 😉

Not financial advice!

Much love! 💜🍌🍌🍌

[Oguz Erkan @oguzerkan]

I have just published a 5,600-word deep dive on $META.

Dived into everything from AI capex risks, legal headwinds, opportunities, and valuation.

You can read it below; it's free 👇
https://t.co/emaw5gCZZo

[OptionsJive @OptionsJive]

https://t.co/yHAD8ibcns

[The Milk Man @MrMilkTrading]

Even though nobody guessed it, I'm sharing it anyway:

Sell one SPX put credit spread per week at the Multi-Day Saty ATR -1 level. That's the whole strategy.

326 backtested trades since May 2020
95.4% win rate
Profit factor 2.48
+$53,328 on a single contract
Max drawdown $4,605
Zero losing years, 2026 is 32 for 32

Everything below, free.

[Alphatica @alphaticaio]

A rare signal we flagged on August 4 is live.

It has fired only 9 times in 23 years.

The setup: QQQ printed three consecutive +0.5% sessions, then opened with a 1%+ gap.

Historical base rates from the prior 8 occurrences:

SPY 30-day: +3.51% average | +5.13% median | 75% win rate
QQQ 30-day: +3.18% average | +5.58% median

Day 4 tracking:
SPY +0.22%
QQQ −0.41%

Flat and consolidating at all-time highs.

This is normal. Six of the eight prior signals also consolidated in the first week before the move developed. The median returns have historically been back-loaded, not front-loaded.

The 30-day window runs into early September.

NVDA reports August 26 (Day 16 of the signal). The catalyst and the window converge.

The signal remains active. The clock is running.

$SPY $QQQ $NVDA