After years of arbing prediction markets himself, @rileyxcook co-founded @SynthesisTrade
Now he's building the best way to interface with prediction markets with whale tracking, one-click arbitrage, copy trading, live sports data, all in one place:
How much $$$ would Professor Jiang make if bet on prediction markets?
I analyzed his predictions and backtested them against real markets on @Kalshi and @Polymarket to see how he would've performed.
Let's break down his lectures, and get his PNL (spoiler: he's printing)
1/🧵
Prediction Market Arbitrage
How it works:
we need to buy yes it will happen and no it wont happen for under a dollar in the same market.
In this example we are buying yes it will happen for $0.19 and no it wont happen for $0.77 for a total of cost $0.96
The thing is ONE of these outcomes has to happen and when they do it will pay out $1.00
meaning we profit of $.04 per share.
and we can buy 211 shares for a total profit of $6.61
its live on the order books as we SPEAK -> go take it!
https://t.co/6gJcdLD54G
https://t.co/qasT8usMDy
i appreciate all the support over the last week. it goes to show whats in store for the future of prediction markets.
that being said me and @com are teaming up to build a killer unified prediction market trading platform for the next 100b of volume on @kashi , @polymarket and others.
no token. monitor the situation.