Mac Clark

philosophical free bird...life enthusiast...creative artist literally and figuratively...always & forever, a low end specialist...

[NBA @NBA]

Total clutch points scored in the Playoffs since 2023:

144 - JALEN BRUNSON
84 - Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
69 - Nikola Jokić
65 - Jayson Tatum

@jalenbrunson1 and New York have a 1-0 series lead in the NBA Finals!

[Pavel Prata @pavelprata]

Which emerging VCs have the strongest early-stage picking alpha?

Standard emerging manager evaluation still leans heavily on qualitative signals – GP background, thesis articulation, founder references. All useful, but by the time TVPI and DPI tell you something meaningful, you're usually already in or already too late.

So I experimented with a quantitative framework to answer a core LP allocator question: which small, early-stage fund managers consistently back seed-stage companies that go on to raise exceptional Series A rounds – before those outcomes are visible to the broader market?

I started with @harmonic_ai Scout (my fav research tool!) and checked every company globally that raised a first pre-seed or seed round between 2022–2026 (Post-ZIRP). The funnel looks like this:

1/ 55,491 companies raised a pre-seed or seed round – the full opportunity set
2/ 4,368 (7.9%) went on to raise a Series A – the base rate, roughly 1 in 13
3/ 764 (1.4%) qualified as Tier 1 Breakouts – above-median Series A for their vintage year, with at least one top-tier institutional VC (from a defined set of 38 firms: @a16z, @sequoia, @lightspeedvp, @IndexVentures, and peers)

For each of those 1,604 companies, I traced back to every investor who backed them at pre-seed or seed — before the outcome was visible. 4,176 unique investors across the breakout set.

Then I computed a simple ratio for each: breakout companies backed at seed divided by total seed investments in the period. I'm calling this the "Tier 1 Concentration Rate".

After filtering out mega-platforms, accelerators, CVCs, and angels and requiring a minimum of 10 seed deals – 20 emerging managers (sub-$250M AUM) surfaced with notably high concentration rates.

A few things stood out:

1/ Several micro-funds under $100M were placing 25–35% of their seed bets into companies that later raised from @Sequoia, @a16z, @lightspeedvp – consistently, not as one-off flukes.
2/ Participant concentration and lead concentration are different signals. Participant = network and access. Lead = independent conviction before consensus forms. For LP diligence, these deserve to be evaluated separately.
3/ The data has real limitations: ~12% of breakout companies had no named seed investor in the database, we can't cleanly separate Fund I from Fund III for a given manager, and small sample sizes mean some high concentration rates likely reflect luck rather than repeatable skill.

But the core idea holds. "Tier 1 Concentration Rate" is an early, measurable signal of picking ability – observable years before fund-level metrics tell you anything.

For LP allocators evaluating Fund I–III managers, that timing gap is the whole problem. This is one attempt to close it.

What’s your take on this experiment?

[Variety @Variety]

Karol G brings out Peso Pluma at #Coachella Weekend 2

[Spencer Hakimian @SpencerHakimian]

Marjorie Taylor Greene on extending Obamacare Tax Credits:

“Let's take off our Democrat jerseys, let's take off our Republican jerseys, and do something responsible for the American people.”

[Barack Obama @BarackObama]

After years of complaining about cancel culture, the current administration has taken it to a new and dangerous level by routinely threatening regulatory action against media companies unless they muzzle or fire reporters and commentators it doesn’t like. https://t.co/uts7JpJZzN

[Michael Eisner @Michael_Eisner]

Where has all the leadership gone?  If not for university presidents, law firm managing partners, and corporate chief executives standing up against bullies, who then will step up for the first amendment?  The “suspending indefinitely” of Jimmy Kimmel immediately after the Chairman of the FCC's aggressive yet hollow threatening of the Disney Company is yet another example of out-of-control intimidation.  Maybe the Constitution should have said, “Congress shall make no law abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press, except in one’s political or financial self-interest.” By-the-way, for the record, this ex-CEO finds Jimmy Kimmel very talented and funny.

[Mohamed Salah @MoSalah]

Can you tell us how he died, where, and why?

[Chase Harris @chaseharris98]

What separates winners from losers

[MeidasTouch @MeidasTouch]

Wow. Bishop Mariann Edgar Budde fearlessly calls out Trump and Vance to their faces. This is heroic.

[KnicksMuse @KnicksMuse]

Jalen Brunson is the FIRST player in NBA History to record the following statistics in the first 40 games of a season:

• 1,000+ Points
• 300+ Assists
• Under 100 Turnovers

[LAFD 🔥 @LAFD]

LAFD Alert-NEW MANDATORY EVACUATION Pacific Palisades Brush Fire - PALISADES FIRE 1190 N Piedra Morada Dr MAP: https://t.co/b8PeUPdxz1 FS23; DETAILS: https://t.co/kZnk0yvlTx

[Barack Obama @BarackObama]

Michelle and I are thinking of everyone impacted by the wildfires in California, and are grateful for the work of the heroic firefighters and first responders.

If you're looking for ways to help, go to: https://t.co/XVedK5rRDK

[Jonathan Vigliotti 🐋 @JonVigliotti]

This is what’s left of the Pacific Palisades. The mall survived. Most everything else is gone. Homes, apartment complexes… businesses.

[CAA Basketball @CAA_Basketball]

A December to remember!

Congratulations @KarlTowns 👏

[SNY Mets @SNY_Mets]

The Mets will retire David Wright's number 5 and induct him into the Mets Hall of Fame on July 19 at Citi Field, per @AnthonyDiComo

[LeBron James @KingJames]

What are we even talking about here?? When I think about my kids and my family and how they will grow up, the choice is clear to me. VOTE KAMALA HARRIS!!!

[Jimmy Traina @JimmyTraina]

Howie Rose’s full call of Pete Alonso’s home run on Mets radio was awesome.

[New York Mets @Mets]

FRANCISCO IS HYPED!!

[dianna @runwildkian]

no other way i would’ve wanted to end this rollercoaster season