M

[M @mannalog]

@Mr_Derivatives Imagine telling the first two that the cumulative profit of all the third guys companies is negative 😂

[M @mannalog]

@StockSavvyShay Wow! Now just about a hundred more deals like that and they’ll be close to their current valuation 😂

[M @mannalog]

@falkon2012 @Kalshi Their competition is focused on making money, not selling snake oil

[M @mannalog]

@FromN5_ Order in, it’s twice as much as both and half as good

[M @mannalog]

@ThHappyHawaiian Fourth? Pretty sure it’s closer to 40 than 4 at this point

[M @mannalog]

@Create_Profit Cathie Wood as usual 😂

[M @mannalog]

@GrindeOptions Based on what? Only thing I see is TA, nothing remotely related to the business or fundamentals, surprised it’s not below 300 now with robotaxi still nowhere to be seen

[M @mannalog]

@optionscjp Futures will be down 0.3%…then axios deal, then 1% up on news we’re exactly where we were on Thursday

[M @mannalog]

@noah_schochet lol what are they gonna build, routers?

[M @mannalog]

@Phrankensteyn @benrwright I never said doomed, it’s just a $2 stock not $200. I’m more worried something happens to Elon, is that priced in? He has a target on his back at these ridiculous valuations at this point. Something happens to him and tsla and spcx drop 90% in a few days.

[M @mannalog]

@Phrankensteyn @benrwright Cheaper materials, but way more materials. Cheaper engines..but way way way more engines.

If it’s roughly linear to F9 there’s literally no advantage.

We’ve gone way off topic though at this point lol

[M @mannalog]

@Phrankensteyn @benrwright You're just assuming cost advantages for some reason with starship... what is your math?

It will be a very long time before it's reusable, and even then the fuel and rocket costs are not linear with falcon. It's sole purpose is heavy lift OUT of LEO. No point using it in LEO.

[M @mannalog]

@Phrankensteyn @benrwright Not if you do the math. That’s not why starship was built.

[M @mannalog]

@Phrankensteyn @benrwright lol ok the moon too, either way, they’re still losing money on those launches significantly, and are like 10-20 years out from regular trips to the moon. Starlink launches to LEO, there is no need for a rocket that big, way too expensive, cheaper to send multiple smaller ones

[M @mannalog]

@Phrankensteyn @benrwright I work for the DoW, they don’t, maybe one ever couple years? Starlink doesn’t need it either. Elon even says that, it’s just for mars.

[M @mannalog]

@Phrankensteyn @benrwright No one is asking for a starship though, maybe NASA for some lunar stuff? NASA’s budget is like $25B… that would make SpaceX maybe a $2B company

[M @mannalog]

@Phrankensteyn @benrwright Meanwhile every other company in the sector also works on the problem, and by the time Elon is done, he’s got tons of competition, he’s behind, and the TAM is nowhere near what he promised.

The product is and always has been the stock, not the companies technology

[M @mannalog]

@Phrankensteyn @benrwright This is the classic Elon playbook. Tell the market he’s got a technology coming out in a year or two that will change everything, then milk the market for the next decade on the same headline.

[M @mannalog]

@Phrankensteyn @benrwright Look, I’m not denying ANY of this is possible, I just haven’t seen one reason why this is cheaper in space than on earth, there’s literally no reason to do this in space. Now we’re talking about replacing satellite components? This is getting absurd lol