i predict we’ll see a breakthrough consumer ai product within the next 12 months that rivals chatgpt & claude by making personal agents genuinely useful & accessible.
& it’ll feel like electricity.
nearly all the seeds required to create this experience now exist. someone just has to assemble them correctly.
the reason that nobody is using agents is because they are still wildly unrealiable even including the wildly expensive frontier models that are far too expensive to put in a mass-market consumer product
the reason it works for coding is because you have a six-figure-salary subject-matter-expert resource sitting there babysitting it all day (and still shipping slop)
The reason agents haven't taken off is because they are still waiting for their "desktop" metaphor and a UI that isn't an open ended chat box.
i use ai daily. I build websites. I do analysis, I do research. I have repetitive processes that i'm sure could benefit from having an 'agent,' but I have no functional understanding of what it is, how to set one up, or what i use it for. If i am in the top 1% of ai users, it is no surprise that the majority is still using it as a better google
Hot take… isn’t it kinda crazy that nobody is really using AI Agents? I don’t mean software engineers or AI early adopters. I mean “college friends talking about it in group chat,” the feeling you got when everyone started using Instagram or TikTok.
These frontier AI models are *insane* (as are the harnesses & tool calls & the like). And every large tech co has an AI agents platform, not to mention all the YC startups doing vertical agents. Yet all of your friends and family outside of tech — who spend all day staring at their iPhones and get paid to work in browser tabs — don’t really care or find themselves using any AI agents yet.
Yes ChatGPT, Claude, etc. are extremely popular… but if you look at the engagement data the vast majority of people are still using these aI chat tools like a glorified Google + Grammarly. That’s why the AGI labs are all pushing desktop apps for Codex, Cowork, etc. so hard to non-technical ppl. And yes exceptions for lawyers and customer service but even those have some asterisks and exceptions to rule.
Look I’m not saying the ChatGPT moment for AI Agents is not coming… it most definitely is! Remember we pivoted from Arc to Dia precisely because we believe computing is going to be radically reimagined around these AI primitives. No doubt. But that’s my point: it’s just so surprising it hasn’t happened yet because all of the tech you’d need is there.
Again if you stop for a second and think about it… for all the press and money and hype and models and crazy ARR numbers… this “AI Agent” moment does not *feel* like the other breakthrough tech moments we’ve lived through (e.g. think the shift to Stories via Snapchat & Instagram, or shift to on-demand via Uber/Airbnb/Doordash).
Which is a long way of saying: if you can figure out the answer to “why” most people don’t care about AI agents yet (and have no enduring interest in using them) — especially since the models and harnesses are here and ready — the answer to that question will allow you to capture a lot of marketshare and make a lot of money in 2027.
Theoretically, the tech is ready for AI Agents to totally transform how we work and live our lives… but alas the general public dgaf… that’s the generational puzzle to solve for the next 12 months for anyone not working on the models themselves.