Marcus Ubl

Director • Verve Rally & Mayfairsilk co-founder • Car enthusiast

[Marcus Ubl @marcusubl]

Joni’s

A

[Marcus Ubl @marcusubl]

I always love your big picture analysis and have been a subscriber on NSBC for over 12 mths. Are you sure about the timing though?

In ‘79 after it breached the ‘74 peak it only took 340 days to add 616% and reach ATH.

when it moves it goes quickly. It doesn’t hang about. I don’t see a protracted 3 year grind up. Gov intervention will happen well before that. But a quick repricing I see can very realistically happen.

On this cycle, we broke ATH in sept ‘25. Adding ~600% gives ~$350 which also happens to be the log cup and handle target. And that I think could happen as soon as October this year. Especially with the rate of ascent we are in. Even allowing for a quick sell off likely around end Feb - March this year.

Thoughts ? It could happen much faster the 2030 don’t you think ?

[Marcus Ubl @marcusubl]

😂

[Massimo @Rainmaker1973]

The mother complained that her son was not sleeping well, so the father filmed a video to find out why.

[Marcus Ubl @marcusubl]

@KingKong9888 @GoldFishCharts 💯💥 I’m here for it!

[Marcus Ubl @marcusubl]

@godofprompt playbook

[Marcus Ubl @marcusubl]

Very interesting

[Aakash Gupta @aakashgupta]

Satya just told you the entire AI trade thesis is wrong and nobody is repricing anything.

Microsoft has racks of H100s collecting dust because they literally cannot plug them in. Not "won't," cannot. The power infrastructure does not exist. Which means every analyst model that's been pricing these companies on chip purchases and GPU count is fundamentally broken. You're valuing the wrong constraint. The bottleneck already moved and the market is still trading like it's 2023.

This rewrites the entire capex equation. When $MSFT buys $50B of Nvidia GPUs, the Street celebrates it as "AI investment" and bids up both stocks. But if half those chips sit unpowered for 18 months, the ROI timeline collapses. Every quarter a GPU sits in a dark rack is a quarter it's not generating revenue while simultaneously depreciating in performance relative to whatever Nvidia ships next. You're paying data center construction costs and chip depreciation with zero offset.

The players who actually win this are whoever locked in power purchase agreements 3-4 years ago when nobody was thinking about hundreds of megawatts for inference clusters. The hyperscalers who moved early on utility partnerships or built their own generation capacity have structural leverage that cannot be replicated on any reasonable timeframe. You can order 100,000 GPUs and get delivery in 6 months. You cannot order 500 megawatts and get it online in 6 months. That takes years of permitting, construction, grid connection, and regulatory approval.

Satya's point about not wanting to overbuy one GPU generation is the second critical insight everyone is missing. Nvidia's release cycle compressed from 2+ years to basically annual. Which means a GPU purchased today has maybe 12-18 months of performance leadership before it's outdated.

If you can't deploy it immediately, you're buying an asset that's already depreciating against future products before it earns anything. The gap between purchase and deployment is now expensive in a way it wasn't when Moore's Law was slower.

The refresh cycle compression also means whoever can deploy fastest captures disproportionate value. If you can energize new capacity in 6 months vs 24 months, you get 18 extra months of premium inference pricing before competitors catch up. Speed to deployment is now a direct multiplier on chip purchase ROI, which means the vertically integrated players with their own power and real estate can move faster than anyone relying on third party data centers or utility hookups.

What makes this really interesting is it changes the competitive moat structure completely. The old moat was model quality and algorithm improvements. The new moat is physical infrastructure and energy access. You can train a better model in 6 months. You cannot build a powered data center in 6 months. This is the kind of constraint that persists for years and creates durable separation between winners and losers.

[Marcus Ubl @marcusubl]

@NoahEpstein_ Skills

[Marcus Ubl @marcusubl]

@doc_ley From my phone. But momentum has lost, in bear flag now - most probably

[Marcus Ubl @marcusubl]

Big picture you’re probably right. Over next decade we may get the run to 160 as you describe. But all your bars are 6M bars. Short term, next 4-6 bars on your chart (2-4 years) we are breaking that lower trend line on rising channel and seeking out 84. Maybe then we bottom and resume the march towards 160. Gold will have done its thing by then and dollar reasserts probably with some form of gold backing by then. Let’s see

[Marcus Ubl @marcusubl]

I retort. Read more @grok food protein presence in Vs is well documented. As is its involvement in creating allergies to those same proteins. https://t.co/bk8C2FJtRY

1. Commins SP, Platts-Mills T a E. Allergenicity of carbohydrates and their role in anaphylactic events. Curr Allergy Asthma Rep. 2010;10(1):29–33.
2. Arumugham V. Evidence that Food Proteins in Vaccines Cause the Development of Food Allergies and Its Implications for Vaccine Policy. J Dev Drugs. 2015;4(137):2.
3. Vaccine Excipient & Media Summary [Internet]. 2015 [cited 2016 Jan 16]. Available from: https://t.co/vA4zBELmpQ...
4. MMR II Vaccine Package Insert [Internet]. [cited 2016 May 3]. Available from: https://t.co/WRtOU3noe1...
5. Wang J. Management of the patient with multiple food allergies. Curr Allergy Asthma Rep. 2010;10(4):271–7.

[Marcus Ubl @marcusubl]

You mean this child mortality? Almost flatlined before these ‘lifesaving’ interventions were introduced. Inconvenient, malnutrition and hygiene is the problem that was solved in the 20th century. Vitamin A deficiency is what drives measles severity, otherwise it’s a mild illness for a week. Even WHO recognizes giving high dose vitamin A for kids with measles. Doesn’t get much airwaves though so most are ignorant of facts. Danish 10yr study in Africa showed 5-10x higher all cause mortality of kids especially girls that received dtp as it reduced their immune function to everything other than the 3 things in the shot. Sounds like a bad trade. But profitable for those connected to the industry. Sleep well. Turn the page and pretend there’s nothing to see here. Keeping poisoning and generating allergies with every environmental protein contained in at least one of the jabs. Peanut oil, casein, penicillin (mould), fetuses, shellfish, list goes on and on. Imperfect manufacturing leaves these in so your immune system attacks when you eat these things 👏 such science. So clever.

[Marcus Ubl @marcusubl]

How does it reduces mortality? Evidence and who funded the study. Check for conflicts. When any population level study is cared to be done, it actually shows increased all cause mortality over a 10 yr period.

Nutrition and sanitation time and again reduces incidence and severity of illness. Not these profitable poisons.

[Marcus Ubl @marcusubl]

Verve Rally Arabia - Supercar Rally | Trailer https://t.co/ZvFpieJ9at via @YouTube #Boom

[Marcus Ubl @marcusubl]

@TomSoede @RFKJr_Official No he wouldn’t

[Marcus Ubl @marcusubl]

@DrClownPhD lol 😂

[Marcus Ubl @marcusubl]

@DubaiBoat is your booking engine having an issue? can't buy tickets on either mobile website or pc. apple pay or card not working, both say 'record was not found in database' ? Can we get tickets on the door?

[Marcus Ubl @marcusubl]

@dawilliams59 @DefiyantlyFree lol

[Marcus Ubl @marcusubl]

@BigStarHost @RepJoeWilson 😂

[Hosun Chung @hosun_chung]

The backlash was instant and brutal.

Over 90 million views in days resulted in thousands of memes & endless mockery.

Even Elon Musk chimed in with a simple question: "Do you sell cars?"

But the criticism went deeper than jokes:

[Alex Phillips @ThatAlexWoman]

🚨EU made Spain REMOVE dams

More than 200 people dead in horrific floods in Spain

They'll tell you a year's worth of rain fell

What they won't tell you is EU legislation forced Spain to rip out its dams

The EU's Biodiversity Strategy 2030 made member States remove hindrances to 'rewild' rivers

Guess who was top of the class?

Spain. 133 taken out in 2023 alone 👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻👇🏻