MarkSeeker✡️🇮🇱🪖

🇮🇱⚔️LetMyPeopleGo⚔️🇮🇱
🪖GOD BLESS THE IDF🪖
🇮🇱⚔️“He who is compassionate to the cruel will ultimately become cruel to the compassionate”⚔️🇮🇱

[Regavim @RegavimEng]

How will Regavim fight back against the sanctions?

In @Jerusalem_Post, Naomi Kahn explains the next steps.

Read the full interview here:
https://t.co/l0pwMhliQG

[Hussain Abdul-Hussain @hahussain]

If Iran can dictate Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, or else it closes Hormuz, what will hold Iran back from demanding that Israel pull out of Jerusalem, or else it will close Hormuz again.

Blackmail diplomacy never solves problems.

England tried it with Hitler. Appeasement never worked.

[Mark Goldberg @Mark_Goldberg]

It isn't the "rampant antisemitism" causing Canadian Jews to leave (or consider leaving).

It is the failure to adequately deal with it, whether by elected leaders at all levels of government, law enforcement agencies, prosecutors, and university administrations.

[MarkSeeker✡️🇮🇱🪖 @MarkSeeker613]

@LindseyGrahamSC @stephsvox Everyone is laughing at JD and his profound ignorance. America looking hella weak right now.

[Financial Times @FT]

FT Exclusive: A Russian online sabotage network was behind a series of arson attacks on Sir Keir Starmer’s family home and other targets linked to the UK prime minister, an FT investigation has found. https://t.co/QojC6ifRP2

[Amir Avivi אמיר אביבי @Amir_Avivi]

האלימות בחברה הערבית ובישראל איננה גזירת גורל. הסיפור הזה יכול להיפתר, וחייב להיפתר. זהו מבחן המשילות של ישראל, והדבר נוגע לביטחון של כל אחד ואחת מאיתנו!

[David Albright @DAVIDHALBRIGHT1]

Downblend Recoverable Enriched Uranium to What? Better Just Ship It Out

The public discussion about downblending Iran's recoverable enriched uranium always leaves out the biggest factor: Downblending to what? Then what? The logical choice is natural uranium hexafluoride and then ship it out.* Other choices, such as downblending the 20 and 60 percent to 4 to 5 percent enriched uranium, would still leave Iran with a tremendous breakout capability. This material would be over 70 percent of the way to weapon-grade uranium and require the material to be shipped out. Proposals to downblend only the 60% to 20% enriched uranium are laughable, unless it and all other enriched uranium hexafluoride were rapidly shipped out to another country.  If that is the case, why bother downblending at all; just ship out any recoverable enriched uranium in its present form.

The relatively small amount of 20% enriched uranium fuel already in or made for the Tehran Research Reactor (TRR) fuel could remain in Iran. Moreover, we showed recently that Iran has enough TRR fuel in hand, in pieces, or in Russia (under JCPOA) in pieces for many years of TRR operation. There is no need to make more; and Iran can’t make any more in any case due to damage from the war. Thus, there is no need for Iran to keep any 20 percent enriched uranium hexafluoride or any 20 percent enriched uranium oxide outside existing TRR fuel rods or elements.

* In theory, because of mass conservation, Iran has enough depleted uranium hexafluoride to down blend all its enriched uranium hexafluoride to natural uranium hexafluoride. If for practical reasons, it cannot recover enough depleted uranium hexafluoride from the wreckage, there are zillions of tons of depleted uranium in many countries, including Russia, that could be sent to Iran for use in downblending enriched uranium down to natural uranium.

[MarkSeeker✡️🇮🇱🪖 @MarkSeeker613]

@MarioNawfal @FDD Why do people from FDD continue to engage with Mario? It's not a good look.

[MarkSeeker✡️🇮🇱🪖 @MarkSeeker613]

@rich_goldberg Source?

[Richard Goldberg @rich_goldberg]

IF all these conditions are met next week: Shipping is flowing freely through the Strait of Hormuz, the blockade is lifted, no further sanctions relief is provided to Iran, and new sanctions are still imposed when evasion is found.

The result would be:

- Oil prices down and stocks starting to refill.
- No tolls or threats to freedom of navigation.
- The regime gets back the $3 billion per week Trump took away with the blockade.
- Iran has no enrichment or ballistic missile production capabilities, no defense industrial base, no real air defense, and existing enriched uranium stockpiles are entombed.
- Iran's economy continues to hemorrhage from the enormous damage of Epic Fury while consumer demand continues to rise without bombs dropping, putting more pressure on the regime from within.

Conclusion: We would be much better off than we were before Operation Epic Fury with a trajectory for more success ahead.

This forecast changes dramatically IF there are side deals for cash release from Gulf countries or access to Qatar or Oman-based escrow accounts; broad oil sanctions waivers; a commitment to stop enforcing sanctions; or other forms of sanctions relief not being advertised.

[MarkSeeker✡️🇮🇱🪖 @MarkSeeker613]

@WhiteHouse @VP No no it doesn't. JD is a buffoon. Rubio, now.

[MarkSeeker✡️🇮🇱🪖 @MarkSeeker613]

@yechielleiter @UN @ocha Please push Israel to close all UN offices in the country

[Dana Gat @DanaGat1]

הי��ם לפני שנתיים הגיבורים האלה נפלו
המעט שאפשר לעשות זה לזכור אותם
יהי זכרם ברוך

15.6.2024

ווסים מחמוד
יאיר רויטמן
איתן קופלוביץ
אילון ויס
אליהו משהו צימבליסט
איתי עמר
סטניסלב קוסטרב
אור בלומוביץ׳
עז ישיעה גרובר
יקיר יעקב לוי
שלום מנחם

[Amit Segal @AmitSegal]

Out of necessity and ambition, Netanyahu hitched his cart to Trump’s—and now, with Trump driving headlong toward the cliff, he has to figure out how to unhitch before they both go over.

This is a radical departure from even a few weeks ago. The assumption then was that Trump would be a decisive factor in Netanyahu’s election prospects: there was talk of Trump receiving the Israel Prize, of a pre-election visit—a victory lap on Gaza and Iran, capped with a glowing endorsement. Suffice it to say that now looks doubtful, though Trump is still promising to be a decisive factor, just not in the way Netanyahu hoped. There is also the matter of the pardon, and the support Trump threw behind Netanyahu. The total effect is unclear, but it will undoubtedly weigh on President Isaac Herzog’s decision-making.

Netanyahu is facing the biggest challenge of his 30 years of dealing with U.S. presidents. He cannot repeat his 2015 gambit—going to the House under Obama’s nose to torpedo his nuclear deal. Partly that’s because Trump would likely be far more vindictive than Obama, but this is a Republican House in a time in which Republicans are not willing to dissent from the leader. Even if it weren’t a Republican House, Hakeem Jeffries is not about to reprise John Boehner’s invitation. Given the Democratic Party’s current feelings toward the prime minister, they might sooner invite Mojtaba Khamenei. With Obama, Clinton or Biden, Netanyahu always had Capitol Hill to retreat to when the White House turned cold. Now he is trapped in the Oval Office with “Israel’s best friend.”

Netanyahu’s real problem is less a bad ceasefire in Iran than the continued fire from Lebanon. As a senior cabinet minister put it to me: Iran is Trump’s problem, and it is his right to go there and make a deal—but Lebanon is ours.

Yesterday morning, Hezbollah brazenly broke last week’s ceasefire, firing on the north; Israel responded in kind, striking a headquarters in the group’s Dahieh stronghold. That prompted a “what the f— are you doing?” from Trump for the second week running, with the added complaint that Bibi possesses “no discretion at all.” Ironic.

But focusing on the reaction ignores the motivation for the act itself. There are two possibilities. Either Hezbollah turned on its patron, declaring that “this deal isn’t good for me, I want to blow it up,” which is highly unlikely, or the Iranians are after something. That something is to force Israel into a corner where it has to hit the Dahieh. If Israel doesn’t strike, the equation is cemented: Hezbollah can attack and Beirut stays untouched. If Israel does strike, Trump turns on Israel—which is exactly what happened. It is an Iranian attempt—with American backing—to write a return to the October 6 lines into the agreement, and so far it seems to be succeeding. It remains unclear exactly what the agreement demands in Lebanon. It could be a simple ceasefire—one that easily regresses into the status quo, tit-for-tat exchanges—or it could mean a full withdrawal of IDF forces from Lebanese territory. The former leaves the door open for Iran to drag its feet in negotiations, pointing the finger at Israel and trying to shove it under the wheels of Trump’s diplomacy. Israel, for its part, has already made its position on the latter prospect clear: Defense Minister Israel Katz declared that “the IDF will remain in the security zones in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza—without a time limit.”

If this is the moment of truth, there is only one correct answer to the prime minister’s test: stand up to Trump. As the senior cabinet minister put it, “This is our war, forced upon us, and we must not accept the Iranian equation”—even at the cost of a “sharp confrontation with the president of the United States.” Quite simply, Israel cannot allow its security to be dictated from Washington, and the prime minister who allows that to happen will not be prime minister for long.

If anything, that offers Netanyahu a glimmer of hope: perhaps he can pull off an unprecedented political about-face, rebranding from expert handler of the American ally—Trump’s best friend—into his most intractable opponent. Suddenly, Gadi Eisenkot’s shaky English might be less of a liability—when the topics are this unappealing to discuss, who needs a silver tongue?

....

To read the rest of today's newsletter click here

https://t.co/ZeVznO2m5h

[MarkSeeker✡️🇮🇱🪖 @MarkSeeker613]

@marklevinshow @LeeSmithDC That's pretty disappointing to say the least

[Andrew Fox @Mr_Andrew_Fox]

Trump sold this war as a demonstration of American strength. It ended with Washington scrambling for a deal before an oil shock crashed the global economy.

Netanyahu got his war with Iran but no regime change, no Arab-Israeli coalition, no strategic victory, and now a ceasefire he reportedly opposed.

Iran is battered but still standing. The Gulf is moving closer to Tehran, not Jerusalem. China is the quiet winner.

I think historians will look back on this as one of the greatest strategic miscalculations of the 21st century.

My latest: https://t.co/qvFtkOofq8

ANATOMY OF A DEBACLE 👇

[Kasra Aarabi @KasraAarabi]

This is not a “peace deal.” It’s an MOU to open the Strait & provide 60-days for negotiations on the nuclear issue. The regime is still anti-American to its core. It still seeks to eradicate Israel. This is a pause in the hot war—& a weakened IRGC will use it to rearm and rebuild

[Rojava Information Center @RojavaIC]

Last week, approx. 1,300 SDF members entered a training program under the Syrian Ministry of Defense (SMD), marking a significant step in the ongoing integration of NES' forces into state military institutions.

This is the first group of trainees, with two more groups to follow.

[Matthew Feinberg @thewebbie]

"Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the defection of KGB archivist Major Vasily Mitrokhin and Lt. Gen. Ion Mihai Pacepa revealed “Operation SIG” — a 25-year Soviet intelligence program designed to sow global Jew-hatred under the respectable guise of antizionism. Yuri Andropov openly boasted that the Islamic world was a “petri dish” in which the KGB could nurture a virulent strain of anti-Western hatred, grown from the bacterium of Marxist-Leninist thought. They realized they had only to repeat the theme that Israel was a “fascist, imperial-Zionist country” bankrolled by rich Jews.

This Soviet state propaganda was subsequently given academic gravitas through an intellectual pipeline of key ideologues: Fayez Sayegh, who formulated the “settler-colonial” framework to strip a refugee rescue movement of its moral legitimacy; Trofim Kichko, the Soviet state scholar who rehabilitated the rabid antisemitism of the Nazi publication Der Stürmer for the Kremlin’s antizionist campaigns; Syrian Defense Minister Mustafa Tlass, who revived classical blood libels under the veneer of scholarship; and Johann von Leers, Goebbels’ high-ranking Nazi propaganda official who fled to Nasser’s Egypt to continue his war against the Jews without changing his core ideological tenets. Today, this laundered narrative is platformed and subsidized by dark money networks..."

See the full article below in comments.
h/t Gregg Rosenberg

[Amit Segal @AmitSegal]

Defense Minister Israel Katz on Israel's security policy:
* The IDF will remain indefinitely in security zones in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza to protect Israeli citizens.
* We firmly oppose withdrawing from Lebanon, a position made clear to the US.
* If Iran attacks over Lebanon, Israel will strike back with full force.