Matter

Generalist Investor, CFA, views are my own

[Matter @MatterGlobal]

@jukan05 If this is true then doesn’t GUC (Global Unichip Corp) benefit as they do backend design, and are strategic partners of TSM who is the top shareholder? They already do the backend design for Microsoft MAIA XPU

[Matter @MatterGlobal]

@jukan05 If Intel is targeting 30% price hike this yr, can we assume AMD does on similar level, plus strong unit growth, and add share gains on top due to Intel near capacity constraints = AMD Datacenter CPU rev growth could be 50%+ this yr? (Vs street ~40%)

[Matter @MatterGlobal]

@shanaka86 It makes sense inventories are ramping also as they’re ramping Blackwell Ultras (B300s) in 2HCY25. Inventories always tend to ramp early in a product launch. These inventories will then be recognized once OEMs can ramp up rack capacity

[Matter @MatterGlobal]

@shanaka86 This doesn’t spell “doom”. It’s known there’s an upstream/downstream mismatch between the OEMs who build racks, and NVDA’s supply of chips. These OEMs/ODMs are scaling up their capacity however. NVDA and others therefore hold finished goods inventories

[Matter @MatterGlobal]

@smallmidcaps @polemicuss @moazzam0_reddit @AndrewP64090323 I think NRP can only be used more locally when the distance is minimal. If you put a NRP liver on SherpaPak it will still go thru ischemic damage (albeit to lesser extent than a traditional ice box)

[Matter @MatterGlobal]

@polemicuss @moazzam0_reddit @smallmidcaps @AndrewP64090323 Agreed. The moat is indeed the end to end service. One liver tx expert call stated that their hospital used 70/30 OCS vs OrganOx for their machine perfusion (90-95% of liver cases). Reason being OCS has NOP (full service) and OrganOx is not portable via plane

[Matter @MatterGlobal]

@polemicuss At 10x+ was pricing towards near perfect execution for sure (I.e steady QoQ growth). But even at those levels it still wasn’t pricing in 10K Tx by 2028 and ~30% Ebitda margins at scale. Near term execution will be key for mkts to gain confidence in their mid term targets again

[Matter @MatterGlobal]

@smallmidcaps @AndrewP64090323 @polemicuss This is helpful, where did you get the data- OPTN? TMDX management is adamant they don’t have to decrease prices, and there’s possible pricing power if they can prove clinical superiority with next gen OCS. Also using TMDX at certain volumes helps grow hospital revenues/profits

[Matter @MatterGlobal]

@polemicuss Yes it’s growing in use but likely unscalable and comes with challenges. Valuation for TMDX is below other high growth smid cap medtech names (median ~6x EV/sales 2025e growing ~20% sales 2025). No reason why TMDX shouldn’t trade at least at those levels

[Matter @MatterGlobal]

@polemicuss Mgmt said they’ve done “few livers that way” and “data is still too small to really make a determination”. But fact this is even being done means OCS drives far more clinical value and cases done on NRP have scope to shift back to OCS over time after better clinician education

[Matter @MatterGlobal]

@polemicuss One caveat on the ~55% DCD liver market share TMDX reports to have is that OCS and NRP are not mutually exclusive. So they actually have cases where the OPO chooses NRP for the donor hospital, while recipient hospital asks for the liver to subsequently be put on OCS

[Matter @MatterGlobal]

@DynamicMoats @DeepSailCapital That said, I agree they have a lot of work to do to reducing working capital needs given ~2 year lead times on systems, which they’ve highlighted as a key focus in their recent 6 year strategic plan, which is likely driving the elevated FCF multiple at the moment

[Matter @MatterGlobal]

@DynamicMoats @DeepSailCapital They still have a monopoly in actinic inspection, KLA has no reported progress in its development of a competing system. Lasertec actually surpassed KLA in latest available Gartner 2023 market share for mask inspection & review category (55% vs 41%)

[Matter @MatterGlobal]

@jfais20 2) …”normal” donor variability as a reason for the 3Q24 market softness, which implies elevated dry runs or some other factor. Given the waitlist levels are still highly elevated for every organ, we could prob assume demand is not an issue at this point

[Matter @MatterGlobal]

@jfais20 1) I think this calculation is sound. But also is contingent on the fact that they are not demand constrained, only supply constrained on the logistics side (whether in house or 3rd party). This is probably the case I would think. But mgmt also cited…

[Matter @MatterGlobal]

@AlphaBetaAnil @holdyourwinners @SixSigmaCapital Yeah they did mention on the call major centers lost 40-50 Tx in August alone (Year over Year?, overall Tx, not specifically OCS). I wonder if they can elucidate, it would be odd that multiple centers all of a sudden losing surgeons all at once, but that’s just one reason

[Matter @MatterGlobal]

@JonahLupton @AlphaBetaAnil @holdyourwinners @SixSigmaCapital And if so, this actually strengthens the critical need for TMDX OCS + NOP to increase the utilizable donor pool for still elevated waitlists. If TMDX adoption/penetration were higher there would be less of a donor shortage issue

[Matter @MatterGlobal]

@JonahLupton @AlphaBetaAnil @holdyourwinners @SixSigmaCapital I get the overall US Tx market was down QoQ in all 3 organs. CEO cited as normal variability that happens time to time. Apart from slow summer season (this was also called out in the prior year), does this mean there were somehow fewer donors, or more dry runs?

[Matter @MatterGlobal]

@phillipharr1s @alchimerical @Kir_Kahlon @long_equity