Matt McManus

prediction markets @DRW; prev math + cs @ mit

[Trader Theory @tradertheory]

Claude is awful now.

It's literally programmed like a smarmy insufferable HR San Franciscan liberal woman.

It randomly starts lecturing you in paragraphs while increasing your token count.

How did Claude become worse than ChatGPT?

Send it to absolute zero.

[Matt McManus @mattmcmanus41]

Smthn fun :) https://t.co/raDUf4q7i8

[Aaron Parnas @AaronParnas]

I totally envision Trump renaming the San Andreas Fault to Joe Biden’s Fault, and I am just putting this out there so I can say I predicted it one day.

[tinah @tinahhong]

Tech has decided that regulation is the enemy of progress, but innovation requires capital

Regulation builds the trust necessary to inject billions into markets

To enable free innovation, Andera raised a $37M series A led by Lightspeed to scale financial oversight with agents

[Luana Lopes Lara @luanalopeslara]

Here I rewrote the headline to match the article data: “people win more on prediction markets than sportsbooks and equities” 👍

[Polymarket Developers @PolymarketDevs]

https://t.co/XtFctLMhOq

[Matt McManus @mattmcmanus41]

@AmtrakNECAlerts Is Acela 2257 running on time?

[Matt McManus @mattmcmanus41]

@aditabrm @hu_yifei 500 likes on adits posts and @hu_yifei gets a Porsche? 👀

[Milo Smith @mil000]

why is PayPal teaching me about Git

[ℏεsam @Hesamation]

ANTHROPIC ACCIDENTALLY LEAKED Claude Code source code and someone made a copy of it on GitHub, in just 1 hour it already got 1.5K stars.

[Andrej Karpathy @karpathy]

New supply chain attack this time for npm axios, the most popular HTTP client library with 300M weekly downloads.

Scanning my system I found a use imported from googleworkspace/cli from a few days ago when I was experimenting with gmail/gcal cli. The installed version (luckily) resolved to an unaffected 1.13.5, but the project dependency is not pinned, meaning that if I did this earlier today the code would have resolved to latest and I'd be pwned.

It's possible to personally defend against these to some extent with local settings e.g. release-age constraints, or containers or etc, but I think ultimately the defaults of package management projects (pip, npm etc) have to change so that a single infection (usually luckily fairly temporary in nature due to security scanning) does not spread through users at random and at scale via unpinned dependencies.

More comprehensive article:
https://t.co/EJAZbqAPIQ

[Om Patel @om_patel5]

stop spending money on Claude Code.

Chipotle's support bot is free:

[Matt McManus @mattmcmanus41]

@Josie_hl @Kalshi @KalshiEco @KalshiSports @KalshiFB @kalshidata @KalshiNewsroom @KalshiGirls @j0hnwang @KalshiCFB where do you get all of the data to do this type of analysis?

[Matt McManus @mattmcmanus41]

@Prithvir12 @opinionlabsxyz @Kalshi @Polymarket @predictdotfun @trylimitless @MyriadMarkets it would be great to see a category analysis breakdown across all exchanges

[Xiang Yue @xiangyue96]

There are competing views on whether RL can genuinely improve base model's performance (e.g., pass@128). The answer is both yes and no, largely depending on the interplay between pre-training, mid-training, and RL. We trained a few hundreds of GPT-2 scale LMs on synthetic GSM-like reasoning data from scratch. Here are what we found: 🧵

[Matt McManus @mattmcmanus41]

@Predictefy @Polymarket @Kalshi Would love to try it out

[Matt McManus @mattmcmanus41]

@adelwu_ @aditabrm lmaooo

[a16z @a16z]

Thinking Machines chief scientist John Schulman on what’s changed in AI since 2015–2017:

“Previously the people were a bit weirder.”

“Engineering skill matters more now… as opposed to research, taste and the ability to do exploratory research.”

“There’s so much low hanging fruit just from scaling the simple ideas and executing on them well.”

“People who have more of a software engineering background have more of an advantage now.”

@johnschulman2 @thinkymachines @mntruell @cursor_ai

[Matt McManus @mattmcmanus41]

@WilliamBryk Would love to!!

[Matt McManus @mattmcmanus41]

Ping me if you are going to Neurips!