Matt Wright

Lead Freight Analyst @Kpler. Oil, LNG, bulks and boats

[Martin Kelly @_MartinKelly_]

Another Maritime Security Failure in the Gulf.

Folloiwng the failure of the '20 tanker initiative', and Trump & Araghchi's (18 Apr) SoH is open for business posts; Trump has now cancelled Project Freedom, just 48hrs in.

Timeline:
03 May: Trump announced “Project Freedom”
03 May: IRGC issued VHF warnings instructing ships to leave RAK
03 May: US DDGs USS Truxtun and USS Mason entered the Gulf under Iranian drone, missile and fast attack craft
03 May: ADNOC Barakah struck by IRGC & abandoned
04 May: South Korean operated cargo vessel HMM Namu suffered explosion and fire near Umm Al Quwain [unsure if conflict-linked]
05 May: Container ship CMA CGM San Antonio struck 40nm north of Dubai after transiting with AIS disabled.
05 May: US officials publicly described Project Freedom as successful, stating that escorted commercial shipping movement through the Strait had resumed despite Iranian interference.
05 May 2026: Trump announced that Project Freedom would be paused “for a short period of time” to allow negotiations with Iran to continue.

What actually happened:

Trump announced Project Freedom
US Ships came under heavy attack, realised it’s impossible to defend commercial shipping
Iran turned the screw, broaden Op Area to include Ras al Khaimah & Fujairah, attacked 3 ships
CMA Ship used US guidance, didn’t work
Trump ‘paused’ (binned) Project Freedom.

Key takeaways are that Iran has demonstrated it retains the capability to detect, ID and target shipping with AIS off and at night. Iran retains control of the Strait of Hormuz.

[Matt Wright @mattwright8]

A tale of two tankers

Over the last two months, every new transit of the Strait of Hormuz has been breathlessly reported and yet when you step back the picture remains the same. Very little is getting through. While this is still the case, there were two confirmed transits today that deserve more attention than usual. 

LNG carrier Mubaraz and Japanese owned tanker Idemitsu Maru.

Mubaraz is the first LNG tanker to exit the Stait since the war started. It went through dark probably a week or more ago and has just turned up off India. This is significant as the consensus had been LNG would some of the last cargoes to return. LNG carriers are some of the most expensive vessels and as we saw with Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, owners tend to avoid high risk areas.

For Idemitsu Maru, it's the first Japanese owned tanker to transit. This one took the Iranian approved route so will have had permission from the IRGC and potentially paid a toll. 

So, what's the point?

These two show us the even the most conservative owners and producers are getting impatient, more risk tolerant and increasingly willing to engage with Iran. We will likely see more ships exit over the coming weeks. If there are no further vessel attacks Iranian approved transits could increase significantly.

But, flows won't get back to pre-war levels with Iran controlling the levers or vessels exiting dark. The Larak route cannot handle full traffic and Iran has limited incentive to give up control.

[Matt Wright @mattwright8]

The containership Epaminondas seized by Iran yesterday was escorted into Iranian waters last night and is now north of Larak Island.

[Amena Bakr @Amena__Bakr]

Let’s not kid ourselves, a lot more time is needed to reach any kind of agreement. An extension of the ceasefire is a MUST.

[Matt Wright @mattwright8]

It may be because they they can't agree on who to send.

Over the weekend it became increasingly clear the politicians make the statements but the IRGC decide on who passes through the Strait.

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

NO IRANIAN DELEGATION HAS YET DEPARTED FOR PAKISTAN TO ATTEND PEACE TALKS WITH U.S. - IRAN STATE MEDIA

[Matt Wright @mattwright8]

There were 24 Hormuz transits on Saturday, the most since the start of the war.

Notably, almost all of these were between midnight and early Saturday morning when the Sanmar Herald was attacked.

That attack has reset things and there have been only a handful of transits since then.

But, the fact so many ships were able to transit in such a short period shows the IRGC can manage more transits than I had expected. It's also unlikely they all paid a toll.

[Matt Wright @mattwright8]

After the attacks today the Strait will be avoided by all except owners with the strongest constitution.

What does the US do from here?

They need to stop trying to win this in one move and accept the long game. It will be unpleasant and painful but far better than the false hope nonsense we have had so far.

The blockade is the best approach they have to put pressure on Iran. It's not a guarantee but strikes haven't worked.

[Matt Wright @mattwright8]

Reports two ships have been hit in the Strait including a tanker en route to India.

Another serious step back for shipper confidence.

[Matt Wright @mattwright8]

Getting the door slammed in your face.

The closed sign is back up over the Strait of Hormuz.

[Matt Wright @mattwright8]

@AlD480351726540 MEG is Mideast Gulf. The Strait of Hormuz is the entrance to the MEG

[Matt Wright @mattwright8]

Well. That lasted about as long you we could have expected. About a dozen ships trying to exit the MEG have turned around.

[Matt Wright @mattwright8]

No idea if this is genuine. But they reference the right channel. Plus its hilarious.

[Martin Kelly @_MartinKelly_]

IRGC issued a VHF broadcast which says the Strait of Hormuz is still closed, despite Iranian FM & US Presidents comments on the contrary.

The Sepah Navy (IRGC Navy), said opening the Strait will be at the order of Khamenei and 'not some idiot'.

Ships wishing to pass the Strait must first obtain permission from the IRGC.

The broadcast also said that ships that are connected to Iran's enemies will be targeted.

Disclaimer: I cannot verify this audio. However, it is received from a ship in the region.

[Matt Wright @mattwright8]

@robin_j_brooks I don't think Iran have folded quite yet. They still have a number of cards to play. The Strait is far from open.

[Matt Wright @mattwright8]

Don't get too excited. Transits may only be open via Larak. If true, that's a very different proposition.

[Matt Wright @mattwright8]

We can’t say for sure, how and when the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will return to anything close to normality, but a return in transits will take time.

Don't be fooled, the toll route isn't an option for all shippers.

Full article: https://t.co/s0rSFHW3KY

[Matt Wright @mattwright8]

VLCC rates rise....a bit. Still a long summer ahead.

[Kpler @Kpler]

VLCC rates bottom out as Atlantic availability tightens

VLCC rates rose from multi-month lows after a decline in vessel availability in the US Gulf triggered a resumption in ballasters heading to the region. Rates are likely to remain rangebound through the summer, however.

[Matt Wright @mattwright8]

@Michellewb_ Hey - hopefully can clear this up. At Kpler we have it as carrying UAN (Urea Ammonium Nitrate) which is a fertilizer and not sanctioned. There have been a few of these in the last two months on cpp/chems tankers

[Matt Wright @mattwright8]

@Big_Orrin For sure. Will be keeping an eye on floating storage in Asia