“If there is a deflation of the AI bubble, the optimists say that the new infrastructure will remain even if the companies do not — just as railways survived the 19th-century railway bust. However, this fails to reckon with the reality of depreciation (few pieces of silicon hold their value for very long because better chips inevitably come along) and the possibility that LLMs could be displaced by more efficient models less dependent on massive numbers of expensive AI chips.
In placing massive hyperscaling bets, investors are setting lavish expectations about future earnings. But LLMs are not likely to replicate the near monopolies that have made the market power of current tech giants hard to assail. A better analogy for them might be airlines, which are hobbled by small margins, intense competition, high expenses and dependence on hardware created by outside vendors.”
– @garymarcus in @FinancialTimes
The longer I spend in a field, the faster I pattern-match and the less I actually see. My judgment, the thing I was selling, is in large part compressed repetition. It feels like wisdom from the inside. From the outside it looks a great deal like a model that has seen the situation ten thousand times, which is exactly the thing we are now able to build. I am not sure my judgment is as inseparable from me as my pride needs it to be. I suspect a lot of it could be written down, and once it can be written down, you already know where it goes.
Almost everything you think of as yours can be separated from you. And whatever can be separated from a person is, right now, going abundant and going cheap...
The grit that matters most is learning to be your best when you’re at your worst. This is really the difference between elite-level performers and everyone else. And you have to train this kind of grit on its own, as a separate skill. But, if you can do this, what you discover is real power. There’s real power there—and it’s power you probably didn’t know you had @shaneparrish
The alpha in a company is in the founder’s ability to spot non-obvious potential from their vantage point, apply it early and aggressively, and course-correct with new information.
"Late-stage venture is about late-stage founders. It's about a specific kind of person, who can keep deploying dollars attractively, indefinitely."
"The existence of founders like Ali Ghodsi or the Collisons has proven that the right kind of person can keep growing ambitiously, forever."
"You may as well accept that these founders are the asset class; let them cook."
a16z GP David George on what makes founders so good at growing ambitiously, forever: https://t.co/SIE701gbx1
@dkhos was an analyst at Allen & Company working on the LBO model for Paramount. Barry [Diller] didn't want to talk to the MD or the VP or the associate. He'd say, “Who built the model? I'm going to talk to that guy.” He wanted to hear straight from the source. It's the filtering that gets the edge out of the situation, and it's often the edge that gives you an edge. It's not the average.
Always direct opinions @theallinpod:
Most people give soft feedback because they care more about how the conversation feels than about whether the problem gets solved. This is selfish.
Another thought on this... A lot of people don't actually want direct feedback; they prefer something softer. When they hear direct feedback, they focus on how it makes them feel and not the substance. If you're focusing on how feedback makes you feel and not its accuracy, you're robbing yourself of the opportunity to get better.
Exceptional results happen when people are willing to give direct feedback and to hear it.
@shaneparrish
Being around successful people shifts your ambition because extraordinary success feels attainable.
And when success feels attainable, you lock in and work longer, harder, and with more focus. @elonmusk