Michał Dubrawski - Standing with 🇺🇦

Author of the One-Armed Pundit Substack forecaster at @Metaculus and @INFERpub (michal_dubrawski)

[Michał Dubrawski - Standing with 🇺🇦 @MDubrawski]

@TomChivers @MWStory @ClayGraubard @TomChivers thank you for the conversation! This time I really wish I was wrong, but things look as they look. I am practically certain that they won't stop with annexing Donbas alone. I hope I am wrong. I am not a Superforecaster but I put a lot of work into this forecast.

[Metaculus @metaculus]

Ever wanted to learn how to forecast like a top forecaster? Now is your chance.

ExMateriae, a Metaculus Pro Forecaster, will host a free walkthrough in which he moves step-by-step through his reasoning process on a single forecasting question.

🗓️ Saturday, April 11
⏰4-5pm CEST / 10am EDT / 7am PDT
📍Discord (link below)

It’s a rare chance to learn from one of the best; ExMateriae was ranked #1 on both the baseline accuracy and commenting leaderboards for 2025.

[David Manheim @davidmanheim]

I took @davidhagmann's idea, and made a thing!

If people like this and/or subscribe, I'll try to keep going or automate this.

[Philip E. Tetlock @PTetlock]

I’ve known many talented forecasters over the last 35 years. And Warren Hatch is among the most modest about his achievements & most gracious in sharing credit
A gentleman and a scholar in the truest sense

[Michał Dubrawski - Standing with 🇺🇦 @MDubrawski]

@rdeneufville Like when he created contingency plans for neutralizing the Justice League (his allies) in case if they ever went rogue, but he never thought of securing these plans properly. As a result they were stolen by Ra's al Ghul and used against the team.

[Michał Dubrawski - Standing with 🇺🇦 @MDubrawski]

The NonProphets: @rdeneufville, Scott Eastman and Atief Heermancee are back with the new podcast episode, and they use their forecasting superpowers on the US Presidential Election! https://t.co/C7epRVb8i7

[Michał Dubrawski - Standing with 🇺🇦 @MDubrawski]

@rdeneufville Not in forecasting... He has showed lack of foresight and bad judgment on the number of occasions.

[Adam Grant @AdamMGrant]

The scientific method isn't only for scientists. It can help us all learn faster.

Study of 759 startups: teaching scientific thinking boosts revenue. Founders become quicker to abandon bad ideas.

A key to good judgment is treating plans as hypotheses and choices as experiments.

[Michał Dubrawski - Standing with 🇺🇦 @MDubrawski]

I stared a new series on my blog. If you are interested, read "The Forecaster's Bookshelf: Books About Forecasting - Part 1" https://t.co/8v58kJp7h1

[Danny Halawi @dannyhalawi15]

The results in "LLMs Are Superhuman Forecasters" don't hold when given another set of forecasting questions. I used their codebase (models, prompts, retrieval, etc.) to evaluate a new set of 324 questions—all opened after November 2023.

Findings:
Their Brier score: .195
Crowd Brier score: .141

[David Manheim @davidmanheim]

#QOTD: "Sanity is the process by which you continually adjust your beliefs to be more predictive of future observables."
-@esrtweet

[Mick Ryan, AM @WarintheFuture]

My new book, “The War for Ukraine” is now available at Amazon and USNI Books. It explores Ukrainian, Russian & western #strategy and #adaptation since Feb 2022. All my royalties from sales will be donated to Ukrainian charities & crowdfunders. @USNIBooks #Ukraine

[Philip E. Tetlock @PTetlock]

Can we figure out how to incentivize not just accuracy of forecasts but also quality of questions? Here's a new FRI report that describes a conditional tree method of generating high-quality questions that beats business-as-usual on a major forecasting platform. I hope this will jumpstart vigorous competition from which “super-questioners” might someday emerge

[Michał Dubrawski - Standing with 🇺🇦 @MDubrawski]

@PTetlock If someone already deserves the title of "super-questioner", I would say it is @JgaltTweets who is not only a great forecaster but also authored 443 high-quality questions published on @metaculus

[Brian Whitmore @PowerVertical]

On The @PowerVertical Podcast this week, I speak with the always insightful @KofmanMichael to break down Ukraine's Kursk offensive. https://t.co/PQyztTiddv

[Michał Dubrawski - Standing with 🇺🇦 @MDubrawski]

Superforecasting Rap #2 - my second AI song about the principles of Superforecasting: https://t.co/WwONWpe3n4

[Michał Dubrawski - Standing with 🇺🇦 @MDubrawski]

My attempt at creating a Superforecasting Rap song with AI (ChatGPT + Suno) based on some some key insights about forecasting process from @PTetlock @dgardner the Good Judgment Project @TLiptay and @foxyforecaster https://t.co/oHYS0zhz6I

[Good Judgment Inc @superforecaster]

Superforecaster Vijay Karthik is a technologist, engineer, and one of the first Superforecasters from South Asia at Good Judgment. From analyzing obscure topics to debiasing, his insights are a must-read for aspiring forecasters.
https://t.co/eYY0rRodch
#Superforecasting

[Michał Dubrawski - Standing with 🇺🇦 @MDubrawski]

My attempt at creating a Superforecasting Rap song with AI (ChatGPT + Suno) based on some some key insights about forecasting process from @PTetlock @dgardner the Good Judgment Project @TLiptay and @foxyforecaster https://t.co/oHYS0zhz6I

[Peter Wildeford🇺🇸🚀 @peterwildeford]

Ten years of evolution in robotics

[Francis Farrell @francisjfarrell]

Ukraine's path to survival then victory all starts and finishes with the protection and replenishment of the Ukrainian infantryman. No high-tech weaponry can help if there is nobody left to man the zero line. My latest, from there, for @KyivIndependent:

https://t.co/DrCp45XMsG

[Task & Purpose @TaskandPurpose]

She predicted the Tet Offensive during the Vietnam War but nobody listened to her.

Dr. Doris 'Lucki' Allen, who changed the way intelligence is done, passed away at 97 https://t.co/DOIJOKCoAr