Q4 mining costs to support Bills claim. Last halving bear bottom was -25% AISC for $RIOT. I, the ever optimist, hoped we would hold 70-75k as that fit the narrative. Now that these levels have been broken, you must assume worst case, which would be right in @billfour range of 55-60k. If we get -25% below AISC of the cheapest miners we’re at 40k. I wouldn’t rule out anything in $BTC but I like bills range, especially after today.
$MARA $IBIT $IREN $ABTC $MSTR $HODL $COIN $WULF $BITF $HUT $CLSK
"Hey Bill, where's the bottom in Bitcoin?"
I think all the weak hands get fully shaken out ~$60,000. 2 reasons: 1) cash production cost (ex depreciation) of a new BTC is ~$60K, 2) that's ~where %supply in loss > %supply in profit, which has marked prior bottoms.
Yes let’s take the money out of the hands of tech entrepreneurs who do real things and give it to the absolute most inefficient and wasteful entity on earth, the United States government
🚨US MILITARY: LAST NIGHT AT 11 P.M. ET, U.S. FORCES SUCCESSFULLY INTERCEPTED TWO IRANIAN BALLISTIC MISSILE TARGETING AMERICAN FORCES BASED IN KUWAIT
US MILITARY: MISSILES WERE IMMEDIATELY DEFEATED AND NO AMERICAN PERSONNEL WERE HARMED
Iran Halts Indirect Talks With U.S. Over Lebanon and Gaza Ceasefire Violations - Tasnim News
Iranian negotiation team to stop dialogue and text exchanges through intermediaries
Move follows alleged violations of ceasefire conditions, including in Lebanon
Iranian officials demand immediate halt to Israeli operations in Gaza and Lebanon
Iran also demands full Israeli withdrawal from occupied areas in Lebanon before talks resume
Iran and resistance front reportedly resolved to fully block the Strait of Hormuz
Other fronts, including the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, could also be activated in response
President Trump has tightened the terms of a proposed framework deal to end the war in Iran and sent the revised conditions back to Tehran for consideration, according to three officials cited by the NYT.
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Texas announces the creation of the "Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Advisory Committee."
Texas is now also looking for a qualified firm to custody their BTC for when they buy more 🚀
🚨 BREAKING:
Iran has reportedly been given a 24-hour deadline.
After that, the world could potentially witness one of the largest and most devastating airstrike campaigns in recent history.
Bitcoin is not the S&P. It is not digitalized 24/7 Nasdaq.
It’s a whole other thing.
Treating it like risk on equity is the most expensive misunderstanding in markets today.
BREAKING: The S&P 500 closes at its highest level on record and posts a 9-week win streak for the first time since 2023.
This puts the S&P 500 up +20.1% since the March 30th low, adding +$11.4 TRILLION in market cap in 2 months.
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 The first US-regulated #Bitcoin perpetual futures contract has been approved.
The CFTC approved @Kalshi's BTCPERP contract, bringing one of Bitcoin's most widely used trading instruments to a regulated U.S. market.
Al Jazeera Reporter: Trump’s Blockade Announcement Was First Step in Broader Iran Agreement Process
Trump’s public announcement on lifting the siege was reportedly the first condition before moving to further agreement steps
Tehran insisted on an official public announcement before entering more sensitive negotiations
Trump appeared to frame the blockade issue as a secondary detail within broader talks
Iran views the announcement as a key trust-building step
Direct discussions on the nuclear file have not yet started
Negotiations expected to proceed gradually through a memorandum of understanding, with each step met by a reciprocal step
Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire announcement reportedly falls within the agreed framework
https://t.co/9eYfjYhiqe
SITUATION UPDATE: President Trump says the US Navy is lifting its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and that he is meeting in the Situation Room to make a “final determination” on the Iran deal.
Bitcoin was created for this very moment. Excessive dollar printing in 2020 has created a massive bubble. Even if AI delivers, it won’t stop the psychological/euphoric side of this business and WILL eventually burst. When it pops is anyone’s guess but you don’t want to be digital risk or related as a 24/7 tradable Nasdaq when it does.
No limit down rules govern bitcoin.
The decoupling is a positive whether it feels like it or not.
Bitcoin was created for this very moment. Excessive dollar printing in 2020 has created a massive bubble. Even if AI delivers, it won’t stop the psychological/euphoric side of this business and WILL eventually burst. When it pops is anyone’s guess but you don’t want to be digital risk or related as a 24/7 tradable Nasdaq when it does.
No limit down rules govern bitcoin.
The decoupling is a positive whether it feels like it or not.
Bitcoin's volatility and correlation is getting closer and closer to gold's, which is underreported and perhaps one positive from this rough patch (altho believe it or not $IBIT is STILL outperforming stocks since Iran war started and >2x SPY since Blk ETF filing). Here's 60-day hist vol since IBIT launched vs GLD:
🇺🇸 S&P 500
Momentum, once built, rarely fades quickly. When the S&P 500 is up more than 9% by day 100, the rest of the year has historically delivered a median gain of 11.1% since 1950, keeping bulls smiling
👉 https://t.co/yIk7SZYp6p
h/t @RyanDetrick $spx #spx