Benjamin Pincock

CIO of Method and Theory Capital Management | IBIT and Tech focused | retweets of market moving events and interesting viewpoints

[Benjamin Pincock @methodandtheory]

Q4 mining costs to support Bills claim. Last halving bear bottom was -25% AISC for $RIOT. I, the ever optimist, hoped we would hold 70-75k as that fit the narrative. Now that these levels have been broken, you must assume worst case, which would be right in @billfour range of 55-60k. If we get -25% below AISC of the cheapest miners we’re at 40k. I wouldn’t rule out anything in $BTC but I like bills range, especially after today.

$MARA $IBIT $IREN $ABTC $MSTR $HODL $COIN $WULF $BITF $HUT $CLSK

[Bill Miller @billfour]

"Hey Bill, where's the bottom in Bitcoin?"

I think all the weak hands get fully shaken out ~$60,000. 2 reasons: 1) cash production cost (ex depreciation) of a new BTC is ~$60K, 2) that's ~where %supply in loss > %supply in profit, which has marked prior bottoms.

[jbulltard @jbulltard1]

Yes let’s take the money out of the hands of tech entrepreneurs who do real things and give it to the absolute most inefficient and wasteful entity on earth, the United States government

[Bitcoin Magazine @BitcoinMagazine]

NEW: $12.6 trillion Charles Schwab explains why their "entire framework" for investing in Bitcoin is because it's backed by energy 🤯

[TT3 @TradingThomas3]

Multiple explosions reported at US bases in Bahrain - Tasnim

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

🚨US MILITARY: LAST NIGHT AT 11 P.M. ET, U.S. FORCES SUCCESSFULLY INTERCEPTED TWO IRANIAN BALLISTIC MISSILE TARGETING AMERICAN FORCES BASED IN KUWAIT

US MILITARY: MISSILES WERE IMMEDIATELY DEFEATED AND NO AMERICAN PERSONNEL WERE HARMED

[FinancialJuice @financialjuice]

Iran Halts Indirect Talks With U.S. Over Lebanon and Gaza Ceasefire Violations - Tasnim News

Iranian negotiation team to stop dialogue and text exchanges through intermediaries

Move follows alleged violations of ceasefire conditions, including in Lebanon

Iranian officials demand immediate halt to Israeli operations in Gaza and Lebanon

Iran also demands full Israeli withdrawal from occupied areas in Lebanon before talks resume

Iran and resistance front reportedly resolved to fully block the Strait of Hormuz

Other fronts, including the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, could also be activated in response

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

President Trump has tightened the terms of a proposed framework deal to end the war in Iran and sent the revised conditions back to Tehran for consideration, according to three officials cited by the NYT.

[Bitcoin Magazine @BitcoinMagazine]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Texas announces the creation of the "Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Advisory Committee."

Texas is now also looking for a qualified firm to custody their BTC for when they buy more 🚀

[America Live @AmericaLiveX_]

🚨 BREAKING:

Iran has reportedly been given a 24-hour deadline.

After that, the world could potentially witness one of the largest and most devastating airstrike campaigns in recent history.

[jbulltard @jbulltard1]

Welp

[Benjamin Pincock @methodandtheory]

@BitPaine #1 bitcoin conspiracy theorist Bit Paine.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

*BESSENT: HAVE SEIZED ABOUT $1 BLN OF IRANIAN CRYPTO HOLDINGS

*BESSENT: WE THINK IRAN WAS STEALING $400M - $500M A MONTH

[Benjamin Pincock @methodandtheory]

Bitcoin is not the S&P. It is not digitalized 24/7 Nasdaq.

It’s a whole other thing.

Treating it like risk on equity is the most expensive misunderstanding in markets today.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: The S&P 500 closes at its highest level on record and posts a 9-week win streak for the first time since 2023.

This puts the S&P 500 up +20.1% since the March 30th low, adding +$11.4 TRILLION in market cap in 2 months.

[Bitcoin For Corporations @BitcoinForCorps]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 The first US-regulated #Bitcoin perpetual futures contract has been approved.

The CFTC approved @Kalshi's BTCPERP contract, bringing one of Bitcoin's most widely used trading instruments to a regulated U.S. market.

[FinancialJuice @financialjuice]

Al Jazeera Reporter: Trump’s Blockade Announcement Was First Step in Broader Iran Agreement Process

Trump’s public announcement on lifting the siege was reportedly the first condition before moving to further agreement steps

Tehran insisted on an official public announcement before entering more sensitive negotiations
Trump appeared to frame the blockade issue as a secondary detail within broader talks

Iran views the announcement as a key trust-building step

Direct discussions on the nuclear file have not yet started

Negotiations expected to proceed gradually through a memorandum of understanding, with each step met by a reciprocal step

Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire announcement reportedly falls within the agreed framework

https://t.co/9eYfjYhiqe

[MTS @MTSlive]

SITUATION UPDATE: President Trump says the US Navy is lifting its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and that he is meeting in the Situation Room to make a “final determination” on the Iran deal.

[Benjamin Pincock @methodandtheory]

Bitcoin was created for this very moment. Excessive dollar printing in 2020 has created a massive bubble. Even if AI delivers, it won’t stop the psychological/euphoric side of this business and WILL eventually burst. When it pops is anyone’s guess but you don’t want to be digital risk or related as a 24/7 tradable Nasdaq when it does.

No limit down rules govern bitcoin.

The decoupling is a positive whether it feels like it or not.

[Benjamin Pincock @methodandtheory]

Bitcoin was created for this very moment. Excessive dollar printing in 2020 has created a massive bubble. Even if AI delivers, it won’t stop the psychological/euphoric side of this business and WILL eventually burst. When it pops is anyone’s guess but you don’t want to be digital risk or related as a 24/7 tradable Nasdaq when it does.

No limit down rules govern bitcoin.

The decoupling is a positive whether it feels like it or not.

[Eric Balchunas @EricBalchunas]

Bitcoin's volatility and correlation is getting closer and closer to gold's, which is underreported and perhaps one positive from this rough patch (altho believe it or not $IBIT is STILL outperforming stocks since Iran war started and >2x SPY since Blk ETF filing). Here's 60-day hist vol since IBIT launched vs GLD:

[ISABELNET @ISABELNET_SA]

🇺🇸 S&P 500

Momentum, once built, rarely fades quickly. When the S&P 500 is up more than 9% by day 100, the rest of the year has historically delivered a median gain of 11.1% since 1950, keeping bulls smiling
👉 https://t.co/yIk7SZYp6p

h/t @RyanDetrick $spx #spx